UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos continues on the main card with a fight between Josiah Harrell and Elves Brener in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 121 odds series for our Harrell-Brener prediction and pick.
Josiah Harrell (11-1, 0-1 UFC) suffered his first career loss in his UFC debut, getting knocked out by Jacobe Smith in the opening round back in February 2026. Before that setback, he was riding an 11-0 start highlighted by a first-round rear-naked choke over Melvin Guillard and a corner-stoppage TKO win over Bekmyrza Dosmatov. Now looking to bounce back from his lone career blemish, Harrell comes into his fight this weekend against Elves Brener.
Elves Brener (16-6, 3-3 UFC) enters on a brutal three-fight losing streak, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Esteban Ribovics in August 2025. That followed a third-round KO/TKO loss to Joel Alvarez in August 2024 and a decision loss to Myktybek Orolbai just months earlier. Still, the Brazilian has earned three Fight of the Night bonuses for his entertaining style as he comes into his fight this weekend against Josiah Harrell.
UFC Vegas 121 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 121 Odds: Josiah Harrell-Elves Brener Odds
Josiah Harrell: -122
Elves Brener: +102
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Josiah Harrell Will Win
Josiah Harrell brings serious untapped upside into this fight, having gone 11-0 before his lone career loss, a stretch that included finishes over legitimate regional competition. That kind of dominant amateur-to-pro trajectory suggests real talent that simply hasn't been tested at the UFC level yet, unlike Brener, who's shown clear decline in recent outings.
Elves Brener enters on a brutal three-fight losing streak, dropping decisions and a finish to increasingly tough competition, a trend that suggests his skills may be regressing at this stage of his career. A veteran on that kind of skid often carries diminished confidence, something a hungry, comeback-motivated Harrell can exploit early.
Harrell's only loss came via first-round knockout, which, while concerning, also means he's never had to survive deep into a fight against sustained pressure, keeping his gas tank and durability largely unknown and unexploited. If he can avoid early danger and let the fight develop, his athleticism and power should show up against a fading Brener.
Given Brener's extended slide and Harrell's dominant pre-UFC pedigree, look for “The Muscle Hamster” to bounce back from his debut loss and hand Brener a fourth straight defeat, likely by knockout given his finishing instincts.
Article Continues BelowWhy Elves Brener Will Win
Elves Brener's biggest advantage is his significantly deeper submission arsenal, with 11 of his 16 career wins coming by tap-out, including nine first-round finishes. Josiah Harrell, by contrast, has faced a much thinner level of competition and has never seen grappling pressure of that caliber, making Brener's ground game a real threat if the fight hits the mat.
Harrell is also coming off his first career loss, a first-round knockout to Jacobe Smith in his UFC debut, which raises real questions about how he responds to adversity and Octagon jitters against a battle-tested veteran. Brener, despite his own recent skid, has repeatedly proven he can hang with elite UFC lightweights, earning three Fight of the Night bonuses along the way.
Brener's three UFC losses have all come by decision or finish against legitimate, ranked competition, not against fighters with Harrell's more modest UFC resume. That experience gap becomes especially important if this fight reaches the later rounds, where Brener's deeper pedigree should show.
If Brener can avoid early exchanges and find an opening to drag Harrell into deep water, his superior submission craft gives him a clear path to snapping his own three-fight losing streak.
Final Josiah Harrell-Elves Brener Prediction & Pick
This one pits Elves Brener's proven submission craft against Josiah Harrell's raw power and 11-0 pre-UFC pedigree. Brener enters on a three-fight losing streak, while Harrell is looking to rebound from his first career loss, a first-round knockout to Jacobe Smith in his UFC debut.
Expect Brener to look for grappling exchanges early, using his deep submission background to test Harrell's inexperience against elite-level ground pressure. If Harrell can keep this standing and avoid getting dragged into deep water, his power gives him a real chance to land something significant.
The bigger question is how Harrell responds mentally after his debut setback, since untested fighters facing early adversity often struggle to reset mid-fight. Brener's experience navigating tough spots in deep UFC waters should ultimately be the difference-maker.
Brener gets the win via submission in the second round, snapping his skid by exploiting Harrell's inexperience against elite grappling.
Final Josiah Harrell-Elves Brener Prediction & Pick: Elves Brener (+102), UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+105)