Kentucky and Tennessee are set for a major clash in the SEC on Saturday. Kentucky comes in ranked sixth in the first CFP rankings, while Tennessee needs a win to jump into a playoff spot. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Kentucky-Tennessee prediction and pick.
Kentucky comes into the game at 7-1 and has made history already this year. They are ranked sixth in the first CFP rankings, their highest ranking in program history. They are also on a massive winning streak. After winning their opening game against Youngstown State, they would fall to Alabama. Since then, Kentucky has won six straight games. They have wins over Texas A&M, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma in that streak. The wins against South Carolina and LSU were in overtime, when Kentucky decided to go for two after scoring, and won both times. Last time out, the Wildcats faced Vanderbilt, coming away with a 34-17 win. They were off last week.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is 6-2. They opened the year 3-0 before falling to Texas at home, 20-17. They then won three more games, including upsetting Alabama at home. Last time out, Tennessee visited South Carolina. South Carolina scored two touchdowns in the first quarter, taking a 14-0 lead, but Tennessee made the comeback. DeSean Bishop, DaSaahn Brame, and Mike Matthews all scored in the second quarter, and led 21-17 going into the half. They added a field goal in the fourth quarter, but LaNorris Sellers ran in a touchdown with 1:17 left in the game. On the next drive, Tennessee quarterback George MacIntyre was sacked and fumbled the ball. South Carolina recovered and hit the game-winning field goal to send the Volunteers their second loss of the season. Like Kentucky, they were also off last week.
This will be the 122nd time that these two schools have faced each other. Tennessee has won 85, while Kentucky has won 26, and there have been nine ties. Tennessee has won five straight games overall. The last time Kentucky won was in 2020 in Knoxville.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Odds
Kentucky: +7 (-118)
Tennessee: -7 (-102)
Over: 50.5 (-110)
Under: 50.5 (-110)
Watch Kentucky-Tennessee LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Kentucky vs. Tennessee Key Injuries
Kentucky- ILB Antwan Smith (Out), ILB Justyn Hartley (Out), DB Jaden Smith (Out), DB Grant Grayton (Out), DB Isaiah McMillian (Questionable), OLB Sam Greene (Probable)
Tennessee- TE Ethan Davis (Out), WR Joakim Dodson (Out), LB Jaedon Harmon (Out), DB Edrees Farooq (Out), DB Dylan Lewis (Out), OL Wendell Moe Jr. (Out)
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Betting Trends
– The Wildcats are 7-1 against the spread this year, and 4-1 as an underdog, including winning outright four times.
– Kentucky is 3-0 against the spread on the road. Each time was as an underdog, and they won each time.
– The over is 5-3 for Kentucky this year, including 2-1 on the road.
– Tennessee is 4-4 against the spread this year.
– The Volunteers are 2-3 against the spread when the favorite.
– The under has hit in six of eight games for the Volunteers this year, and in all five home games this year.
Keys to Kentucky vs. Tennessee matchup
Article Continues BelowFor Kentucky, it all starts with the running game. The Kentucky offense has been solid this year, sitting 35th in the nation in points per game. Meanwhile, they are 57th in rushing yards per game this season. CJ Baxter leads the way. He has run for 487 yards this year on 88 carries. Baxter has also scored eight times. Meanwhile, Jason Petterson has run 71 times for 443 yards and three scores. This will help protect Kenny Minchey against a defense that is second in the nation in sack rate. Minchey has been sacked 17 times this year, but has dealt with pressure well overall. He has completed 69 percent of his passes for 1,755 yards and 14 touchdowns, while throwing just one interception.
On defense, Kentucky needs to be a bend-and-not-break defense in this one. The Tennessee offense spreads out boundary to boundary while also running at a high tempo. This stretches out the defense, creating holes in the secondary and in the running game. Kentucky cannot afford to give up quick scores. They are 103rd in the nation in red zone defensive scoring percentage this year. Meanwhile, Tennessee is eighth in the nation in red zone scoring. If Kentucky can turn touchdowns into field goals, they will be in a position to win.
Meanwhile, Tennessee needs to establish the run game. The quarterback play for Tennessee has not been the best. Faizon Brandon had completed just 60.4 percent of his passes for 697 yards with seven touchdowns and an interception before finding the bench. George MacIntyre has completed 67 percent of his passes for 728 yards with two touchdowns, but with three interceptions. Still, Tennessee has a great running game. It is led by DeSean Bishop. He has run 171 times for 957 yards and 11 touchdowns this year. They also have Daune Morris, who has run for 349 yards and two scores this year.
On defense, it will all be about third downs for Tennessee. The Tennessee defense has been great this year at forcing opponents into obvious passing situations. Converting pressure into third-down stops will allow the offense to get back on the field. With their tempo, that will wear out the Kentucky defense and potentially allow Tennessee to pull away in the game. The Tennessee defense is 15th in the nation in opponent third-down conversions this year, allowing just a 32.58 percent success rate. Meanwhile, Kentucky has struggled on third downs this year, and if that continues, the Wildcats will be in trouble.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
Kentucky comes into the game as one of the most consistent teams in the nation. They are 7-1 and have covered the spread in seven straight games. They rely on a structured offense based on the run game. Tennessee needs to force Kentucky into passing situations, though. They are the ninth-ranked passing defense in the nation and will be able to shut down the Kentucky pass attack. This is also a major contrast in offensive styles. The Tennessee offense is high tempo and goes sideline-to-sideline, whereas Kentucky is much more controlled and north-south in their style of play.
The big difference in this game could be turnovers. Kentucky is seventh in the nation in giveaways per game, with just .6 giveaways per game. Meanwhile, they are third in takeaways per game, which makes them second in overall turnover margin. Tennessee is eighth in takeaways per game, but 67th in giveaways per game. If Kentucky can win the turnover battle and create a few short fields, they will keep this one tight and low-scoring.
Final Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick: Kentucky +7 (-118) and Under 50.5 (-110)