Italy 3-1 Türkiye: Player Ratings as Doumbia and the Substitutes Rescue Mancini's Experiment

Roberto Mancini made nine changes after the draw with France, keeping only Gianluigi Donnarumma and Alessandro Bastoni. For an hour in Bologna, his new-look Italy looked like exactly what it was: a group of players who had barely played together.

Türkiye, still without a point and missing several key players, had more of the ball, threatened repeatedly on the counter and drew level just after the hour. Before kick-off, Opta’s supercomputer gave Italy a 66% chance of victory. They got the win, but only because they took their chances. They finished with 1.84 xG to Türkiye’s 1.31 and scored three goals, and Belgium’s 4-1 defeat to France lifted them into second place in Group A1.

How the goals were scored

1-0, Scamacca (26′)
The opener came out of very little. Vergara laid the ball off to Di Lorenzo, whose cross from the right dropped behind the Turkish defence. Scamacca hit it first time on the half-volley. The ball clipped Kabak, struck the underside of the crossbar and went in past the stranded Çakır. It was a 0.09 xG chance and Italy’s only shot on target before half-time. Scamacca did not celebrate, but his goal gave Italy a lead they had not really earned.

1-1, Şimşir (61′)
Türkiye’s equaliser was the best move of the night. Akgün slipped the ball through to Çelik on the right, and Çelik drove a low ball across the area. Elmalı flicked it on, which took Donnarumma out of the play, and Şimşir, unmarked at the far post, tapped it into an empty net on only his second cap.

2-1, Calafiori (64′)
Italy needed only three minutes to go back in front. Barella swung a free-kick in from the right towards the far post, where Calafiori, on the pitch for just eight minutes, outjumped his marker. He looped a header back across goal, over Çakır and into the far corner. The chance carried an xG of just 0.04, but his placement raised the xGOT to 0.45, which shows how well he directed it.

3-1, Pio Esposito (87′)

Doumbia finally settled the game. He held off his man on the right, carried the ball into the box, cut inside and shot. The block fell to Romano, who sent the ball straight back into the danger area, and Esposito reacted first to turn it in from close range. That made it seven goals in 13 caps.

Italy Starting XI formation: 4-3-3

Gianluigi Donnarumma – 7
The captain was busier than expected at home. He got down to push away Kabak’s long-range drive, sprang to his left to deny Özcan from 20 yards, and tipped Özcan’s first-time shot over the bar in the 78th minute to protect the lead. He was less convincing coming off his line. Şimşir beat him to a long ball early in the second half, and he was badly out of position when Aktürkoğlu tried to hook a shot late on. He had no chance with the equaliser.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo – 6.5
His cross for the opener was his main contribution. Otherwise, he was steady but unremarkable, and he was the first player Mancini took off, in the 55th minute.

Gianluca Mancini – 6.5
He made the key defensive intervention of the second half. When Akgün clipped a dangerous ball to the far post with Şimşir unmarked, Mancini read it and headed clear. He stayed composed under more pressure than an Italian back line should face at home.

Alessandro Bastoni – 6
He arrived as only the third centre-back in a decade to score in consecutive Italy games, but he had a quiet evening. He made no obvious mistake, although the defence lost Şimşir completely for the equaliser.

Matteo Ruggeri – 6
He was sharp early, stopping Kadıoğlu when the Brighton defender tried to get in behind. He also lifted the ball cleverly over a challenge before his shot deflected behind for a corner. His evening went downhill after the break. He was booked within two minutes for fouling Kahveci, a defender blocked his cross, and he was replaced on 56 minutes.

Nicolò Barella – 7
He was often caught chasing the game as Türkiye controlled possession, and he lacked his usual influence. His free-kick for Calafiori’s goal was perfectly weighted and decided the match. He was replaced on 70 minutes.

Alessandro Romano – 7
He grew in confidence after a tentative start. He tested Çakır from the edge of the box late on and kept the ball alive for Esposito’s goal. He looked more settled in the deep midfield role as the game went on.

Issa Doumbia – 8.5 Player of the Match

He was easily the best player on the pitch. He opened the second half by driving at the defence and forcing a corner, and Çelik had to foul him to stop a counter, earning a yellow card. Esposito’s through ball sent him clear, but Çakır spread himself well to deny him. He then created the third goal with his strength and dribbling, and Çakır saved his late toe-poke. He has made a very strong case to start.

Antonio Vergara – 7.5
He was Italy’s most creative attacker. He set up the move for the opener, kept cutting inside to make things happen, and worked tirelessly without the ball. His best defensive moment came in the 72nd minute, when he chased back and made a perfectly timed sliding tackle to stop Yüksek. He was caught offside three minutes and went off exhausted on 84.

Gianluca Scamacca – 7
He scored a brilliant goal, but his performance was mixed. He was caught offside three times, had another goal ruled out, and fired an early effort over the bar. He was also booked for a late, accidental stamp on Yüksek. He was replaced by Esposito in the 56th minute.

Daniel Maldini – 5.5
His shot from 25 yards early on was blocked, and he rarely got into the game after that. He was the weakest of the starters.

Substitutes

Michael Kayode (55′) – 6.5
He was reliable on the right and tracked Fakılı into the box late on, forcing him off balance to end a dangerous attack.

Riccardo Calafiori (56′) – 7.5

He scored the winner with his first real chance, a well-directed header from a difficult angle that showed both timing and composure.

Pio Esposito (56′) – 8
His first touch sent Doumbia through on goal, and he scored the goal that made the game safe. He reacted quickest to the loose ball and finished cleanly. He may now be ahead of Scamacca for a starting place.

Sandro Tonali (70′) – 6
He helped Italy see out the final 20 minutes without being seriously tested.

Davide Frattesi (84′) – N/A
He came on for the last few minutes and did not play long enough to be rated.

Roberto Mancini (manager) – 7
Changing almost the entire team made Italy disjointed, and the risk briefly backfired when Türkiye equalised. His triple change around the hour won the game. Calafiori and Esposito both scored, and Kayode steadied the right flank.

Verdict: France in Milan

Italy have never finished below second in a Nations League group, and they are now on course to keep that record. The next two games will decide it. They host France in Milan on 12 November, and three days later they travel to Belgium, who beat them 2-0 in the first game of this campaign.

France will be confident after beating Belgium 4-1, and they are a far more dangerous opponent than Türkiye. Italy cannot give them the space Türkiye found on the counter. Akgün, Şimşir and Aktürkoğlu repeatedly got in behind, and France’s forwards would punish those openings much more often. In the last meeting, Michael Olise’s free-kick beat Donnarumma made seven saves and only. Italy cannot rely on him to rescue them like that again.

The answer is to combine the regular starters with the players who earned their chance here. Doumbia should start in midfield, Esposito has a strong claim to lead the attack, and Vergara’s work rate could help protect the right side. Romano also showed enough to be considered.

The other result that matters is Türkiye’s home game against Belgium, also on 12 November. Türkiye are already fighting to stay in League A, and if they take points from Belgium, Italy’s route to the finals becomes much easier. Even so, Italy should not rely on that result. A win over France in Milan would put them in control before the trip to Belgium.