Indiana vs. Northwestern Prediction: Best Bets To Start Week 4

Indiana started their season with three of the easiest games in the country, and opens up their conference play with a Big Ten team that finished 2025 at just 6-6 in Northwestern.

Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, I think Northwestern might be one of the more underrated teams in the country early on in the 2026 campaign.

Why Northwestern could be the smart bet Friday night

First off, I’m not entirely sold on Indiana. Running back Turbo Richard has turned it on after a slow Indiana opener against North Texas, but Josh Hoover has not impressed me since transferring in from TCU. The level of competition has led to impressive box scores from Hoover, but he’s changed a lot in his play style since arriving in Bloomington.

Hoover’s biggest concern while at TCU was his carelessness with the football and making boneheaded turnovers. Well, now at Indiana, he hasn’t thrown a single interception in his first three games. However, in each of these games, he hasn’t really done anything that impressive. Part of this may be Curt Cignetti hiding a lot of the playbook, but it feels more like Hoover is scared to turn the ball over. For a guy who was so great when he played off schedule in the past, it’s been a little disappointing watching so far under Cignetti.

However, beyond my distrust of the Indiana offense, I think Northwestern has put together a very solid squad in the Big Ten. David Braun has built one of the better cultures in the conference, and alumni support is starting to grow.

Michigan State transfer, Aiden Chiles, is one of the more interesting quarterbacks in the Big Ten. I was incredibly high on him during his time at Michigan State, but it never seemed to workout. He’s looked great in his first two games at Northwestern, and played maybe the cleanest game of his career last weekend versus Colorado.

Between Chiles and the Northwestern defense that dominated Colorado 41-7, I think we will be in for a low scoring affair. Cignetti was quite angry with the media after hearing some criticisms after a 38-0 win over Western Kentucky. My only concern for this game is that Cignetti takes those criticisms personally, and opens up the playbook for the first time all season, and we watch the Hoosiers take it to a new level.

Final Betting Pick

My favorite pick from this game is under 50.5 total points, and I also think Northwestern’s defense mucks this game enough to keep it close, so I’ll also take Northwestern +21 as well.