The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Chet Holmgren underwent treatment on Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear in his right knee, an issue that will keep him out of the lineup for the next 8-10 weeks.
With Jalen Williams out for the season following a gruesome leg injury and Cason Wallace set to miss most of the season after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, the Thunder are now without three of their top six players on the roster less than a month into the season.
The Thunder are off to a 4-1 start so far, but a lopsided loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night with Holmgren out offered a glimpse into how challenging life will be with another star on the shelf.
For a team that began the season as the co-favorites in the Western Conference alongside the San Antonio Spurs with a win total over 60, now they face a challenge maintaining a spot in the top four in the West after losing so much of their expected production two weeks into the season.
Oklahoma City has been dominant in recent seasons largely due to its tremendous depth, but this summer saw them take the first steps in shedding that due to the perils of the second apron and rising costs of keeping a talented young core together. Gone are three established contributors in Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, and while those were understandable cost-cutting measures, they exacerbate the challenge of dealing with serious injuries to key players at all three levels of the floor.
If there's a silver lining, it's that Holmgren's injury will only cost him a couple of months. But with Wallace and Williams out, losing one of the league's best rim protectors will be extremely difficult to deal with. This was already going to be a challenging season for coach Mark Daigneault without two key backcourt stars, but now he has to shuffle his lineups across the board with Holmgren out.
Time to sink or swim for Aday Mara
The Thunder probably hoped to bring their rookie big man along slowly, but with Holmgren out, the 7-foot-3 center out of Michigan will have to take on a larger spot in the rotation. Mara impressed in spot duty in his debut against Victor Wembanyama on opening night, showing why the Thunder drafted him to combat their chief rival with a rare player with the size and length to bother him -- and alleviate the stress Holmgren faces dealing with Wemby.
Mara then picked up his first double-double in a win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday, as he got his first extended burn with Holmgren out, scoring 11 points and pulling down 10 boards in 20 minutes. He was less effective in 21 minutes against the Mavs, and the Thunder will have to navigate the ups and downs of the rookie experience as Mara gets more comfortable in his expanded role.
Offensively, Mara is a play-finisher at the rim. So far this season, 80% of his field goal attempts have come within four feet of the rim and 75% of his attempts have come off of zero dribbles. With Mara on the floor, the offense has to adjust compared to what they can do with the rest of their center rotation. Where Isaiah Hartenstein can be a high post hub and Holmgren and Jaylin Williams can space the floor, Mara has less variability to his game. That doesn't mean he can't be effective, but it does require an adjustment on Oklahoma City's end to put him in the right spots and find ways to still create space for others when he's on the floor.
On defense, Mara gives them a needed rim protector and he's proven to be a high-caliber shot blocker already with seven blocks in five games despite relatively light minutes. However, like many young shot blockers, Mara is learning to navigate an increased minutes load without fouling. He has picked up nine fouls combined in his two games with 20-plus minutes. Defense will be Mara's calling card, and over the next two months, the Thunder will hope to see him continue learning to be impactful without fouling to maximize his time on the floor.
The Thunder never viewed this season as one to focus on development, but at this point they have little choice but to embrace that with Mara. He has the potential to be a key contributor to this team and play an extremely valuable role as they get set for a decade-long battle with the Wemby-led Spurs. With Holmgren out, he's going to get far more extended opportunities to see the floor than expected early in his rookie year, and perhaps that can pay dividends down the road for Oklahoma City.
Will this change OKC's approach to the trade market?
With Williams out for the year and Wallace out for at least most of it, there were plenty of rumblings about the Thunder exploring their options on the trade market. A deal was unlikely to happen until at least December 15, when players who signed this summer become available, but Oklahoma City figured to spend the next month-plus evaluating its roster and keeping an eye on potential additions from around the league to stay in the contender realm.
With Holmgren out, one wonders whether that changes the calculus for Sam Presti -- or at least the timeline for making a move. Holmgren is expected to return in January, which would allow the Thunder to wait until he's back and see how he's performing coming off of the knee procedure for a couple of weeks before the trade deadline.
The Thunder should be able to manage two-plus months of a center rotation of Hartenstein, Williams and Mara -- with more Kenrich Williams at the four as well -- meaning their focus will still be on adding on the wing and in the backcourt.
Presti may want to see exactly what he has this season before making a significant in-season move. The Thunder could try to weather the storm with the roster they have until Holmgren returns and see where they are in the West before determining whether to make a smaller move or a more foundation-shaking trade.
Could Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win a third-straight MVP?
No one has won three straight MVPs since Larry Bird in the 80s. For one, it's hard to maintain that level for three straight seasons, but as we've seen over the years, even when the greats do stay in the MVP conversation, voter fatigue typically sets in after a player wins two and voters seek out someone else.
However, with the injuries piling up in Oklahoma City, if there were ever a year for a player to break that drought and become the first to three-peat as MVP in 40 years, it could be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dragging this Thunder team to another top-four seed with such a depleted roster.
It's been a relatively slow start to the season for Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 26.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game on 45.9/26.5/87.5 shooting splits. That kind of production obviously won't get him a third MVP award, but if he ups his level and carries this Thunder squad without Holmgren for half the season and without Williams and Wallace for most of it, he will have to garner real consideration.
Some of his candidacy will be determined by who else is in the mix early on -- Luka Dončić seems poised to put up massive numbers in L.A. -- but the circumstances in Oklahoma City this season are so unique that Gilgeous-Alexander could break the run of back-to-back MVPs who have fallen short in pursuit of a third straight.
Gilgeous-Alexander's play will determine exactly how the Thunder proceed this season. If he plays at his typical MVP level and the Thunder look like a threat, Presti may have no choice but to try and make a splash ahead of the deadline to bring in reinforcements to chase a second championship. If it's a down year for Gilgeous-Alexander without some of his top support elements around him, perhaps there's less of a push to go all-in this season and Oklahoma City could look to ride out the storm and hope for better health in 2027-28.