Two of the best teams in the nation are set to square off in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, as Georgia visits the Alabama Crimson Tide, in what could be the game of the year. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Georgia-Alabama prediction and pick.
Georgia has been dominant on the way to a 5-0 record. They opened up the season with a 63-3 win over Tennessee State before taking a 70-20 win over Western Kentucky. They would hit the road for the first time, facing Arkansas in Week 3, and come away with a 45-17 victory. Georgia continued their dominance against Oklahoma, with a 41-13 win. Last time out, they faced Vanderbilt. The Commodores kept it tight early. The teams were tied at seven after the first quarter, and Vandy was down just seven at the halftime break. Still, Georgia did not allow a second-half point on the way to a 38-14 victory.
Meanwhile, Alabama is also 5-0 on the year. They have had multiple games starting slow this year, but have come away with dominant wins. They beat East Carolina 48-10 to open the year before a 45-17 win on the road over Kentucky. Florida State had a lead on Alabama in Week 3, but the Tide rolled back, winning 50-36. In Week 4, it was utter domination, with a 49-18 victory over South Carolina. Last time out, it was more dominating play from Alabama. Keelon Russell was phenomenal, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the 56-23 victory over Mississippi State.
This will be the 77th meeting between Georgia and Alabama. Alabama leads the series with 45 wins, while Georgia has 27, and there have been four ties. The two schools faced each other twice last year. Alabama took a 24-21 win on the road in the regular season. In the SEC Championship Game, Alabama fell to Georgia 28-7.
Georgia vs. Alabama Odds
Georgia: +1.5 (-108)
Alabama: -1.5 (-112)
Over: 51.5 (-105)
Under: 51.5 (-115)
Watch Georgia-Alabama LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Georgia vs. Alabama Key Injuries
Georgia- WR Thomas Blackshear (Out), RB Chauncey Bowens (Out), OLB Amaris Williams (Out), S Tyriq Green (Out), OL Marcus Harrison (Out), WR Isaiah Canion (Questionable)
Alabama- LB Justin Hill (Out), LB Desmond Umeozulu (Out), LB Cayden Jones (Out), DL Jeremiah Beaman (Out), DB Jorden Edmonds (Questionable), TE Josh Ford (Questionable)
Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Trends
– The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the spread this year, and have yet to be an underdog in a game.
– Georgia is 1-0 against the spread on the road.
– The over has hit in all five games this year for Georgia.
– Alabama is also 4-1 against the spread.
– Alabama is 2-1 against the spread at home this year.
– The over has hit in all five games this year for Alabama.
Article Continues BelowKeys to Georgia vs. Alabama matchup
For Georgia, it will all start with Gunner Stockton. Playing in potentially wet weather in front of the Bryant-Denny Crowd will be difficult, but also something that he has done before. Stockton excels at making short passes, and he does not need to look for the explosive plays. His job this week will be sustaining drives and keeping the ball moving downfield. Stockton has been great so far this year, completing 77 of 102 passes for 1,049 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has also been intercepted just once and sacked only five times. While the Bulldogs will have Nate Fraizer in the backfield, with Chauncey Bowens out of the lineup, one of the other backs will need to step up to help out in the short passing game.
On defense, they need to force Keelon Russell to try to do too much. Russell has been great this year at keeping plays alive and throwing outside of the pocket. This has led to some chunk plays for Alabama this year. Still, Russell has not had to experience a ton of pressure so far in his first five games as the Alabama starting quarterback. Raylen Wilson is going to be the focus in this regard. The linebacker leads the team in tackles, while also having three sacks and two forced fumbles. If he can create another turnover, Georgia will be in a prime position to win the game.
For Alabama, they need to establish the run early. Not only will this help Russell out, but it will also help the defense out tremendously. Georgia has been great at making long methodical drives, which wears out a defense. If Alabama can also run the ball well, they can give their defense some rest while wearing down Georgia. This will be the job of the three-headed running back monster in the backfield. Daniel Hill has run 51 times for 247 yards and four scores. Meanwhile, Trae'Shawn Brown has run for 211 yards and five scores on 42 carries. Finally, EJ Crowell has run for 204 yards and three scores on 26 carries.
One defense, Alabama, needs to make Georgia one-dimensional. On third down this year, opponents are converting just 27.54 percent of the time, making Alabama one of the best third-down defensive units in the nation. One of the major reasons for this is that Alabama forces a lot of third-and-longs, which, in front of the home fans, become even harder to convert. This means they have to stop the run well. Luke Metz and Caleb Woodson have been solid in the run game from their linebacker positions and need to do the same in this one.
Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
Weather could play a major factor in this game as Hurricane Isaias makes landfall in the Gulf. While it is going to be wet, the rain may be done by the time of kickoff. Regardless, these are the top two scoring teams in the nation. Further, they are both in the top ten in turnover margin and top five in takeaways per game. This will come down to who can finish drives, convert in the red zone, and make big plays. The weather conditions favor Georgia, but more importantly, Gunner Stockton has been in these high-pressure games before, where Keelon Russell has not. With two top-quality defensive units and two of the best defenses in the red zone, it will be lower-scoring, with Georgia taking the win.
Final Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick: Georgia +1.5 (-108) and under 51.5 (-115)