With a full month of football officially out of the way, we now have a nice chunk of information at our disposal to better steer our roster decisions. While an injury or unexpected performance (good or bad) may suddenly change how we view that data, we still have plenty of good stuff to base our decisions on. From raw volume to a month’s worth of inefficient play, all of these numbers can factor into the decisions we make going forward.
This week, I look at a veteran running back whose early opportunities have far exceeded our preseason expectations, a rookie receiver who finally appears to be living up to his potential, and a tight end who could emerge as his team’s No. 2 receiving option. Let’s dive into this week’s usage report as we prepare for Week 5.
▶ Running Backs
🟢 Aaron Jones (MIN) vs. Dolphins
If you didn’t have Aaron Jones ranking seventh among all running backs in opportunities (87) through the first four weeks of the season, you’re not alone. That said, it’s time to adjust to what we’re seeing, and the Vikings have relied heavily on Jones lately. His 40 percent opportunity share on the year also ranks seventh among all RBs, but over the last two weeks, his 46 percent opportunity share has led all players at the position.
Jones has finished as a top-24 PPR back in three straight games, and has pulled off a nice little PPR scam over the last two weeks with a 9-68-0 receiving line on 14 targets since Kyler Murray returned under center. Jones has virtually no competition for touches in the backfield. DeeJay Dallas and rookie Demond Claiborne have combined for just eight opportunities since Week 3. Now set to face a Saints team that has allowed a top-12 PPR back in each of its first four games played this season, Jones is a near must-start this week for those rostering him.
🔴 TreVeyon Henderson (NE) vs. Bills
It’s been a painfully slow start to the season for TreVeyon Henderson and his fantasy managers. While it’s no surprise that he has split snaps and opportunities with Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson has been wildly inefficient with his opportunities on the ground (38-141-1) and has seen only three targets compared to the 17 Stevenson has on the season. Henderson’s 141-yard rushing line is buoyed by a 39-yard touchdown run he had in Week 2 against the Steelers. Without it, he is averaging 2.8 YPC, which would rank 37th among 39 RBs with at least 30 rush attempts on the season.
Henderson’s 10.5 percent missed tackles forced rate (MTF%) ranks 34th among that group, while his 0.87 yards before contact per attempt (YBCO/ATT) is 27th. While he does draw a decent Week 5 matchup against the Raiders, who have allowed the 15th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, Henderson is a fringe RB2/RB3 at this point. He has yet to handle a rush attempt inside his opponent’s five-yard line, making him more reliant on a long touchdown run to pay off for his fantasy managers in a given week.
Stevenson has been limited in the first two weeks of practice with a knee injury. If he misses Sunday’s game, Henderson would move into a more reliable RB2 range, but as long as he’s forced to share the backfield with Stevenson, he’ll remain hard to trust on a week-to-week basis.
▶ Wide Receivers
🟢 Carnell Tate (TENN) vs. Ravens
While I’m far from a believer in Cam Ward as a long-term starter in the NFL, I’m a big fan of the way he has gotten Carnell Tate the ball over the last two weeks. Tate popped off for 9-145-0 on 12 targets in last week’s loss to the Ravens, and saw nine targets in the previous week in their loss to the Giants. Tate’s 21 targets since Week 3 are tied with Tetairoa McMillian for sixth-most in the league over that span, while his 30.9 percent targets per route rate (TPRR) is good for the fourth-highest among receivers over that span.
The Titans haven’t been shy about getting Tate the ball as of late, and he has easily looked like the best receiver on the Titans. Looking more at his solid two-week stretch, Tate has also been the first-read on 40.5 percent (1Read%) of the Titans’ targets, which is good for fifth-highest in the league, narrowly edging out guys like Jaxon Smith-Njigba (37.8 percent 1Read%) and Puka Nacua (31.4 percent 1Read%). Tate and the Titans draw a home matchup against the Texans, who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. The plus matchup coupled with his recent usage puts him firmly on the WR3 radar with a chance for much more upside if he sees similar volume to the last two weeks.
🔴 Jordan Addison (MIN) vs. Dolphins
In two full games with Kyler Murray under center, the Vikings have ranked 24th in EPA per dropback (0.001). Murray’s 31.8 percent success rate ranks 32nd among 34 QBs since Week 3 (min. 40 plays), trailing only Baker Mayfield (28.3 percent) and rookie seventh-rounder Athan Kaliakmanis (27.5 percent). In last week’s win over the lowly Dolphins, the Vikings needed five field goals to down the Fish in the 15-10 victory, while T.J. Hockenson led the offense with a team-high 13 targets sans Justin Jefferson (ankle).
Jordan Addison, who had a chance to step up in Jefferson’s absence, was held to just four catches for 52 yards on six targets, and has been targeted six or fewer times in three of his first four games. Addison, who has never been an elite target earner, ranks 36th among 54 receivers in TPRR (17.2 percent, min. 100 routes), and will have plenty of competition for targets with Jefferson saying he expects to play in Week 5 against the Saints. With Jefferson set to return, and the Vikings’ potential to run it all over New Orleans this week, Addison once again feels like a high-variance play that could leave fantasy managers disappointed.
▶ Tight Ends
🟢 Michael Mayer (LV) vs. Chiefs
It’s a bit early to say we should start Michael Mayer after his 8-82-0 game on 10 targets in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. Mayer’s performance certainly came as a surprise given that Brock Bowers was healthy and in the lineup, but there’s a case to be made for Mayer having fantasy viability in the coming weeks.
When Bowers missed the first two weeks of the season with a knee injury, Mayer saw 11 targets on 51 routes run. His 21.6 percent TPRR was good for sixth-most among tight ends over that span (min. 40 routes run). In addition to that, the Raiders boast arguably the most underwhelming receiving corps in the league, and they recently lost Jack Bech (forearm) and Jalen Nailor (concussion). The Raiders have three receivers who have totaled 50 or more routes run this season. Their combined TPRR of 18.0 percent ranks just below the league average of 19.3 percent. Their WR1, Tre Tucker, has a 19.3 percent TPRR on the season but is averaging just 5.8 targets per game.
Mayer has averaged 14.2 PPR points per game over the last two weeks, and his 68 routes run over that span are tied for sixth-most among tight ends with Tyler Warren and Harold Fannin. Mayer is worth a stash for fantasy managers in need of help at tight end after the first month of the season. If we see another week from him like what we saw against the Chiefs, Mayer could be on the Week 6 streaming radar when the Raiders host the Bills.
🔴 Dalton Schultz (HOU) vs. Cowboys
After a solid two-week start in which he caught 16-of-22 targets for 175 yards, Dalton Schultz has come plummeting back to earth. Since Week 3, Schultz has seen just five targets come his way, and his 45 routes run over that span rank 25th-highest among tight ends, per TruMedia. Last week’s return of Nico Collins from a hamstring injury certainly didn’t help Schultz’s fantasy upside. In a 34-30 loss to the Cowboys, Schultz saw just two targets on 24 routes run while Collins and Xavier Hutchinson combined for nine targets.
Schultz draws a tough Week 5 matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 11th in points allowed to opposing tight ends so far this season. In a week where fantasy managers may need to find a replacement for Travis Kelce (bye), there are likely better options available than Schultz.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
