Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills odds, predictions and betting tips

After aggressively re-tooling their offense, the Buffalo Bills looked like a Super Bowl contender in their win against the Houston Texans while torching one of the best defenses in the league from the opening kickoff.

With the Detroit Lions coming into town, Josh Allen will be able to continue to thrive by attacking a defense who struggles in coverage.

Speaking of the Lions, the New Orleans Saints took them the distance in week one, falling just short after they were unable to convert on a two point attempt in overtime.

A stunning performance from the Lions, especially when factoring in their regression on offense with Jared Goff hovering in the middle of the board in most quarterback metrics.

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills best bets

Once projected to be one of the top contenders in the NFC, serious red flags have been raised after the Lions underwhelming performance in week one.

Not only did their offense stall out at an alarming rate, their offensive line is now dealing with injuries, potentially increasing the amount of Havoc in Goff’s throws when under pressure.

Should the Lions offense continue to sputter, then they will struggle to keep up with the Bills who currently rank near the top of the board in DVOA and in EPA. With DJ Moore giving the Bills a surefire WR1 for Allen to lean on, their pass attack is more versatile, making it easier for their offense to sustain their drives down the field.

The Bills revamped pass attack also benefits their ground game, forcing opposing LB’s to stretch out in coverage, freeing up more space in the middle for James Cook to exploit.

By consistently cutting the distance to gain in half, the Bills probability of converting on later downs improves, leading to an uptick in their total number of trips to the red zone.

When in scoring position, Khalil Shakir has been a reliable pass catcher for Allen to throw to, comfortably leading the team in red zone targets.

With the Lions forced to shade their coverage towards Moore while bracketing Dalton Kincaid, Shakir will be able to capitalize on the single coverage he receives and create a high quality passing lane.

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills preview

Barring a sudden turnaround, it’s tough to envision how the Lions will get the Bills offense off the field. Their secondary was not just bad, they were abysmal, ranking below league average in Def Pass Success Rate. Tyler Shough had no issue with airing out the ball, throwing for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Even though Shough is a productive QB in his own right, Allen is in a tier of his own, ranking near the top of the board in QB EPA per Play and in Bad Throw Percentage.

Allen is also just as dangerous with his legs as he is with his arm, gashing the Texans front seven for two touchdowns while averaging nearly four yards per carry.

With the Lions back end incapable of holding their own in coverage, their linebackers will be forced to pull away from the middle, leaving their front seven vulnerable to getting beat on the ground.

Their inability to spy will also free up space for Allen to take off and run once a running lane opens up, making it difficult to hold the Bills in front of the sticks.

On the other side of the field, the injuries across the Lions offensive line are a massive cause for concern, especially with the quick turnaround giving them less time to heal. With negative regression looming over their protection, the Bills will be able to consistently pressure Goff, drastically lowering the quality of his throws.

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills betting tips

With the Lions lacking the production on defense that is needed to slow Allen down, the Bills will be able to get into scoring position at a high rate and light up the scoreboard.

Once behind, the Lions will find it difficult to match their output while dealing with injuries, leading to a lopsided affair.

Buffalo Bills -4

After opening up at -2.5, bettors were quick to steam the Bills through the key number of -3 with some sportsbooks climbing up to as high as -4.5. The line movement makes sense when factoring in the Bills advantage on offense, ambushing a defense who lacks the coverage that is needed to give Allen fits.

Speaking of defense, the Bills interior pressure will give the Lions pass catchers less time in the open field to break away from their coverage, smothering Goff’s passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.

With no clear path for success, expect the Lions to be held to early outs, giving the Bills generous field position in the process.

Bet the Bills to cover the -4 spread at -110 with BetMGM

Josh Allen Over 247.5 Passing Yards

With the Lions secondary struggling to keep a body on their opponents hips, the Bills chances of generating an explosive play through the air increases. Especially when creating disruptions at a low rate at the point of contact, resulting in a high volume of yards after the catch. 

The Lions lack of pressure will also give Allen a clean pocket to operate in, allowing him to go through his progressions instead of having to weave the ball through a crowded window.

For some more exposure, escalator bet Allen’s Passing Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

Back Allen to throw for more than 247.5 passing yards at -114 with FanDuel

Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown Scorer

While the acquisition of Moore will lead to a decline in Khalil Shakir’s usage in the middle of the field, Allen still looked his way near the goal line, leading the team in red zone targets.

Even though Shakir failed to convert his only reception into a touchdown, it was still encouraging to see Allen lean on him. 

When lined up on the opposite side of Moore, opposing linebackers are forced to shade their coverage away from him, creating more space for Shakir to break away from his assignment. To help diversify your risk, place a separate wager on Shakir to score the first touchdown as well.

Bet Shakir to score a touchdown at +280 with FanDuel

🤕 Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills injury report

Below is a breakdown of the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills injury report heading into their week two matchup.

Detroit Lions

  • Out: Brian Branch (S), Kerby Joseph (S), Isiah Pacheco (RB)
  • Questionable: Christian Mahogany (OG), Juice Scruggs (C), Blake Miller (RT) 
  • Doubtful: N/A

Buffalo Bills

  • Out: T.J. Sanders (ED)
  • Questionable: Terrel Bernard (LB)
  • Doubtful: N/A

With Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph on the sideline, the Lions secondary are vulnerable to getting beat over the top, making it easier for the Bills to get into scoring position.

📺 Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills game info

  • Date: Thursday, September 17th
  • Time: 8:15pm EST
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium - Orchard Park, New York
  • Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video

Kody Malstrom

Kody Malstrom is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with six years of experience covering a vast majority of sports. He covers football, basketball, hockey, baseball, and the UFC in written and video form.

Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a Detroit sports fan who spends all of his Sundays in the fall rooting for the Detroit Lions and Saturdays watching as much College Football as possible. In the winter, he shifts his focus to the Detroit Red Wings and Pistons while simultaneously rooting for his North Carolina Tar Heels.

When he is not staring at betting markets, you can find Kody at the beach or snowboarding down a mountain, depending on the time of the year.

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