The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) both enter Week 5 at 2-2, with the winner moving to 3-2 on Sunday at Acrisure Stadium. Pittsburgh is a small home favorite, and the models and bettors disagree on how safe that is.

Colts vs. Steelers Odds

Colts: +2.5 (-110)

Steelers: -2.5 (-110)

Over: 44.5 points

Under: 44.5 points

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Colts vs. Steelers Key Injuries

Indianapolis has the longer injury list. Center Tanor Bortolini (ankle) wore a walking boot at Wednesday's practice, and starting defensive end Arden Key (hamstring) is expected to miss time. Linebackers Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee) and Jaylon Carlies (ribs) and receiver Ashton Dulin (hamstring) did not practice either.

Running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Keenan Allen were limited, but both are listed with rest designations, with a groin issue also noted for Allen. Tight end Will Mallory (thumb) was a full participant.

Pittsburgh's biggest concern is the secondary. Cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Jamel Dean (ankle) did not practice, and Dean left the Browns game with an ankle injury. Defensive tackle Cameron Heyward also sat out for rest. Receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) and running back Rico Dowdle (toe) were limited.

Colts vs. Steelers Betting Trends

The Steelers are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the over is also 7-3 in that span. Pittsburgh is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games overall.

This season, Indianapolis has covered in three of four games, while Pittsburgh has covered twice. Two games for each team have gone over the total.

Keys to Colts vs. Steelers Matchup

Pittsburgh's rushing attack is the biggest edge. That matters more with Indianapolis' defensive front thinned by Key's hamstring injury and the linebacker absences.

The Colts' best path is to lean on Taylor and Allen while keeping Pittsburgh's offense off schedule. With Ramsey and Dean in doubt, the Steelers' pass defense is the soft spot, and Indianapolis can exploit it if Taylor and Allen are close to full strength. The Colts also had a misleading performance in their Week 4 game against Washington in London, which may be inflating or deflating how the market sees them.

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Protection is a question for Indianapolis if Bortolini can't go. A backup center against a Pittsburgh front that still has Heyward working through rest days is a real matchup problem.

Colts vs. Steelers Prediction and Pick

This should be a one-score game. Pittsburgh has the home field, the rushing edge and a long series history of covering against Indianapolis, while the Colts have been a steady bet against the spread this season.

The Steelers' secondary injuries and Indianapolis' offensive weapons keep the margin tight, but the Colts' injuries on the line and at linebacker tilt the game toward the home side. Taking the moneyline is the safer play, but they should still cover the 2.5 points.

Take the Steelers to win, with the game landing right around the number.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Colts 20