College football picks: Predicting every big game of Week 6, including Alabama-Georgia

Week 6 of the college football season has some massive games on the schedule.

The biggest of course is the tilt between No. 6 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia in Tuscaloosa — with an uninvited guest set to perhaps crash the party — but that is not the only game between ranked teams, as No. 13 Oregon hosts No. 21 UCLA earlier in the day.

And with some other big games on the schedule, to help you get ready we’ve identified nine of them and made some picks, with a special tenth game added to the slate of predictions. These are all straight-up, even when spreads are listed or mentioned.

An early season battle for supremacy is on tap in the new Pac-12.

The Broncos and the Bulldogs lead the way in the conference, with both teams checking in with matching 4-1 records overall, and 1-0 records in conference play. Boise State knocked off Utah State to open conference play, and their only loss is a 34-27 defeat at the hands of then-No. 2 Oregon to begin the year, while Fresno State began the year with a loss to USC, and knocked off Washington State to open conference play last week.

The Broncos are favored by a touchdown in this game, but I actually like Fresno State in this game. While the teams are somewhat matched statistically, what stand out to me is Fresno State’s scoring defense, which at 16.4 points per game is 27th in the nation and tops in the conference, ahead of Boise State.

I think that defense gives Fresno State the edge late Saturday night.

Pick: Fresno State

I was very, very tempted to pick the Wildcats here.

But Kentucky’s two SEC wins are over a free-falling Texas A&M team, and a South Carolina team that is worse.

On the other side of the field you have the Tigers, who bring to town the second-best defense in all of college football (giving up 220.6 yards per game, behind only Notre Dame) and the third-best offense in all of college football, as LSU averages 547.8 yards per game.

Scarier still is the fact that Kentucky ranks 43rd in the nation against the run, giving up an average of 187.2 yards per game on the ground. Lane Kiffin has four players with over 150 yards on the season (Dillin Jones, Harlem Berry, Stacy Gage, and quarterback Sam Leavitt) and the rushing attack will pose problems for the Wildcats on Saturday.

Pick: LSU

Fascinating game on tap in the Big 12 between two teams already with a loss in conference. A second Big 12 loss likely dooms the loser of this game in the race for a spot in the conference title game.

Oddsmakers have put this game down with Kansas State as three-point favorites, but with the Wildcats playing at home, that makes this game more of a “pick ‘em.” And diving a bit deeper into things, according to “ESPN Analytics,” the Wildcats have the slightest of edges, 50.8% to 49.2% in the outlet’s “Matchup Predictor.”

However, looking at these two teams I really like what Kansas State has done on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve given up just 246 yards per game this year — ranking the Wildcats tenth in the nation — and have the eighth-best defense when measuring Passing Efficiency Allowed.

Give me the Kansas State defense to carry the day.

Pick: Kansas State

You always have to make room for Red River.

Brent Venables has had an off week to get ready for this game, but that must have felt like a lifetime for the Oklahoma coach. The Sooners are coming off a trio of disappointing games, a loss to Michigan on the road, a surprising 14-6 squeaker against New Mexico, and then a 41-13 thumping at the hands of Kirby Smart and Georgia to open SEC play.

Complicating matters is the fact that John Mateer has struggled over this stretch. The embattled Oklahoma quarterback completed just 17-of-33 passes for 189 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the loss to the Wolverines, threw a pair of interceptions in the eight-point win over New Mexico, and not only threw an interception but lost a pair of fumbles against the Bulldogs.

Venables is standing by his quarterback for now, but continued struggles will make that tougher.

But we expect those struggles to continue against the 11th-ranked scoring defense in the nation.

Pick: Texas

Some of us saw this coming.

Eric Morris brought a significant portion of his roster with him from North Texas to Stillwater when he took over at Oklahoma State. But the biggest thing he brought with him was the connection between quarterback Drew Mestemaker and wide receiver Wyatt Young, who was North Texas’ leading receiver a season ago with 70 receptions for 1,264 yards and ten touchdowns.

Those two have continued that connection in the Big 12, as Mestemaker has thrown for 1,271 yards and 11 touchdowns through four games, with 410 of those yards and three of those touchdowns going to Young, among his team-leading 22 receptions. Young currently averages 18.64 yards per reception, just behind Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State who checks in at 18.70.

UCF will pose a stiffer test for the Cowboys, as the Knights have the 26th-best passing defense in the land. But this is a test that Mestemaker and company will pass.

Pick: Oklahoma State

This game is one of two matchups between 5-0 teams on the docket for Week 6.

The Cornhuskers have nearly matched last season’s seven wins, and enter Week 6 as one of the last remaining undefeated teams. But wins over Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State, and Maryland are one thing.

Taking on Indiana is another.

There is a potential trap game element at work here, as the Hoosiers take on No. 5 Ohio State next weekend in Bloomington. But with Indiana getting a scare from Aidan Chiles and Northwestern just a few weeks ago, we think Curt Cignetti will have the Hoosiers focused on the task at hand this weekend before the Buckeyes come to town.

Plus, the last time a team coached by Matt Rhule beat a ranked opponent?

Barack Obama was still President of the United States, back in December of 2016 when Temple beat Navy.

Pick: Indiana

It is getting late early for the Aggies.

A win over Arkansas calmed things in College Station, but losses to Kentucky and LSU have Mike Elko and company on the knife’s edge in the SEC. And with games coming up against Alabama, Tennessee, and of course Texas to close out the year, this feels like a must-win for Texas A&M.

The problem?

That would be their Week 6 opponent, as the Tigers are coming on a very impressive win last week against Florida. Austin Simmons put himself into the quarterback discussion mix with a tremendous performance against the Gators, and Jamal Roberts has more than picked up the slack in the absence of Ahmad Hardy, as the senior running back is sixth in the nation in rushing yards, having run for 606 yards and six touchdowns this season.

If you are wondering, the Aggies give up over 120 yards per game on the ground, ranking 48th in the nation.

This one-two combination of Austin Simmons, and the Missouri rushing attack, might prove detrimental to Texas A&M’s playoff hopes.

Pick: Missouri

This is one of two games between ranked opponents on the Week 6 docket.

And it is a big one for both teams.

For the Bruins, it is a chance to validate their rise up the rankings. UCLA is 4-0 and has poured on the points, beating Purdue 52-38 and then Maryland 54-3 over the last two games. The rushing attack is a major part of the story, as the Bruins average 281.5 yards per game on the ground, fourth-best in the nation. But do not ignore what quarterback Nico Iamaleava has done this year, completing almost 63% of his passes for 820 yards and four touchdowns.

The problem for the Bruins is that Oregon, coming off a bye week, awaits. Dante Moore is a longshot to return after the concussion he suffered against USC two weeks ago, meaning Dylan Raiola is the likely starter, but they will also bring one of the best run defenses in the country to the game to try and slow down that UCLA attack.

While UCLA likely keeps this close — the Ducks are favored by 11.5 points as of Wednesday afternoon — but the Ducks win this game.

Pick: Oregon

That’s right, we are not just focused on the FBS here.

If you have followed my work over the past decade or more, you know about my background in Division III football and my love for all things D3. So each week we’ll highlight one game from that level, and yes given my background there will be an emphasis on all things NESCAC.

But not this week.

Instead we take a trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, or the WIAC, for a battle at the top of the standings between undefeated UW-Eau Claire and undefeated UW-Platteville, who check in at No. 4 in the latest top 25 from D3football.com. The Pioneers are coming off a pair of road wins, including a trip to Massachusetts where they knocked off Springfield, and a win over UW-Stout a week ago.

UW-Eau Claire is also 4-0, and the Blugolds are coming off impressive wins over Carthage (40-0) and UW-Stevens Point (31-9). And both teams enter Saturday’s game in Platteville with 1-0 records in the WIAC.

Platteville QB Nathan Uselding has been near-perfect this year, completing more than 75% of his passes for 924 yards and 13 touchdowns, against just one interception. The Pioneers have also racked up an average of 415 yards per game, and a staggering 43 points per game.

While the Pioneers fell short in the third round of the playoffs a season ago, this team looks primed for an even deeper run this season.

Pick: UW-Platteville

We now get to the game of the week.

While the big story right now might be the threat of Tropical Storm Isaias, and the impact that could have on this huge SEC tilt, at some point the ball will be kicked off, and a game will be played.

Alabama passed a big test last week by going into Starkville and knocking off Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs. But facing a Kirby Smart defense, even at home, will be a tough ask for young quarterback Keelon Russell.

But what stands out to me in this game, and potentially the rest of the way, is the play from Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton. He’s been very consistent this year, and watching his game against Oklahoma I saw several “NFL throws” from Stockton. He might not be the dynamic threat that Russell is, but he is experienced, takes care of the football, and has made some big plays this year.

To wit, while Georgia again has a highly ranked defense — the Bulldogs are seventh in total defense right now — the offense checks in as the 22nd-ranked unit in total offense, ahead of Alabama. And Stockton ranks third in the nation in Passing Efficiency, behind only Darian Mensah and Josh Hoover.

I like Georgia in this one, whenever the game gets played.

Pick: Georgia