Chiefs vs Colts prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchups, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Arrowhead Stadium will be the place to be back-to-back weeks when the Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) host the Indianapolis Colts (0-1) on Sunday Night Football! Patrick Mahomes looked like himself early with the opening touchdown, a 15-yard dash, but Kenneth Walker III stole the show with 191 total yards and two touchdowns in the Week 1 win over the Broncos. The Colts defense was dismembered in a 41-23 loss to the Ravens — the 41 points was the second-most points allowed on the week.

Kansas City had a lot of question marks entering the season-opener, but as usual, Andy Reid and company answered a lot of them. Mahomes was coming off a surgery on his left knee and went 15-of-27 for 184 passing yards and three total touchdowns to one interception. Walker’s career-high day of 173 rushing yards was the most for the Chiefs since Jamaal Charles ran for 226 in 2012. The Chiefs defense held the Broncos to 10 points, only 9 first downs, a 2-of-12 third down efficiency, and a mere 176 total yards.

Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles injury that still is affecting him. Jones had two deep ball attempts, 201 air yards, and finished with 166 yards on 19-for-31 passing. Jones did through a touchdown to Tyler Warren, but the offense was led by Jonathan Taylor as expected. Taylor ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, plus added three receptions for 23 yards. There weren’t many bright spots for Indianapolis on defense. The Colts gave up 324 passing yards to Lamar Jackson, 163 yards and three touchdowns to Derrick Henry and two touchdowns of 50-plus yards. Slowing down Mahomes and Walker in Arrowhead is a challenge made for Sunday Night Football!

Game details and how to watch Colts at Chiefs

· Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
· Time: 8:20 PM ET
· Site: Arrowhead Stadium
· City: Kansas City, MO
· TV/Streaming: NBC | Peacock

NBC Sports is your home for all the latest updates on this matchup, featuring live odds, player news, expert analysis, and predictions.

Latest Game Odds for Colts at Chiefs

The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:

· Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts (+235), Kansas City Chiefs (-290)
· Spread: Chiefs -6.5
· Total: 46.5

The opening spread for this game was -6.5 and the total was 47.5. The only movement on the game is to the Under by one point. Primetime Unders are 3-2 this season after Bills vs Lions went Over on Thursday Night Football.

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Expert picks & predictions for Colts at Chiefs

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans Kenneth Walker to go under his rushing props in Arrowhead:

“Kenneth Walker III had a memorable debut with the Chiefs. On Monday Night Football, Walker went berserk for 173 rushing yards and 18 yards, plus two touchdowns. Walker had 23 carries and three receptions on six targets from Patrick Mahomes. Walker’s lines are rushing props are set between 79.5 and 83.5 for now, but since this game is on Sunday night, we can fully expect this to climb. I might wait for this to reach closer to 90 yards to play the Under and the same goes with the carries if it closes near 19.5 or 20.5.”

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Colts at Chiefs betting trends and stats

• The Chiefs are 1-0 ATS and 1-0 to the Under
• The Colts are 0-1 ATS and 1-0 to the Over
• Kansas City was 6-10-1 ATS last season, ranking fourth-worst
• Indianapolis was 8-7-2 ATS last season
• Kansas City was an NFL-best 13-4 to the Under last year
• The Chiefs went 4-9-1 ATS as a favorite in 2025, ranking fifth-worst
• The Colts were 4-3-1 ATS as the road team and 8-8-1 ATS since 2024
• The Colts are 7-3-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2024
• Kansas City was an NFL-best 8-1 to the Under at home in 2025 and 9-1 in the last 10
• Indianapolis is 6-4-1 to the Under on the road since 2024

Quarterback matchup for Colts at Chiefs

· Indianapolis: Daniel Jones – Jones is coming off an Achilles injury that may affect the 29-year-old, but only time will tell. In the season-opening 41-23 loss to the Ravens, Jones finished with 166 passing yards and four rushing yards on 19-for-31 passing and one carry. Jones had two deep ball attempts in Week 1 and ranked 26th in yards per attempt (5.4). Three of his passes were dropped and Baltimore’s defense smothered Jones’ first read. Jones only had one start (without injury) where he threw for less than 200 yards last year with the Colts and that came against the Chiefs in an 23-20 OT loss (181 yards, 2 TDs).

· Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes is coming off a left knee injury but didn’t look like it the least bit against Denver. Mahomes ran for 23 yards on seven carries and a score and was sacked twice and threw an interception, but everything else was gravy baby. Mahomes was able to dink and dunk all night and find open receivers because of Walker’s efficiency on the ground and out of the backfield in the passing attack. Mahomes did rank 28th in adjusted yards per attempt (5.3), not really getting the ball down field rather letting his receivers/tight ends cook, but considering he went 15-of-27 for 184 yards with the fewest time to throw (2.13 seconds) in he NFL last week — Mahomes couldn’t have asked for a better start (maybe minus the INT).

Colts at Chiefs Injury Update

• Chiefs CB Mansoor Delane (shoulder) is quesitonable
• Chiefs DE Ashton Gillotte (Foot) is probable
• Chiefs WR Rashee Rice (Knee) is probable
• Chiefs DE R Mason Thomas (Hamstring) is probable
• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (Knee) is probable
• Chiefs DB Chamarri Conner (knee) is OUT
• Chiefs OT Josh Simmons (back) is OUT
• Colts WR Alec Pierce (Heel) is questionable
• Colts RB D.J. Giddens (Knee) is questionable
• Colts DT DeForest Buckner (Ankle) is probable
• Colts LB Akeen Davis Gaither (Knee) is probable

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