The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears meet on Sunday Night Football with very different momentum and very different identities. Tampa Bay just beat Atlanta 16–0 without completing a pass. Chicago comes in off an upset of Seattle.
The Bears are 6-point favorites, and the total is 46.5. The Bucs have won three of their last four after an 0–4 start, so they are still in the NFC South race.
These predictions lean on the contrast between Tampa Bay's run-first plan and Chicago's explosive offense.
Caleb Williams leads the Bears past 30 points again
Chicago will score at least 30 points, and Williams will account for three touchdowns.
The Bears have scored 30 or more in every game Williams has finished this season, and they have not lost one he has started and finished (4–0). Since he returned from his hamstring injury, they have not trailed in any of three games.
Williams threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns in a 30–24 win over New England. Chicago's pass offense averages 236.4 yards a game compared with 131.4 for Tampa Bay. That edge in the air is the core of this call.
Tampa Bay's pass defense gives up 205.9 yards a game, which leaves room for chunk plays. Chicago's offense ranks 10th in EPA per play despite Williams missing three full games. I expect him to throw for at least 275 yards and add a rushing score.
The one wrinkle is the Bears' backfield. Running back Kyle Monangai is listed as out with a thumb injury, which could shift more of the offense to Williams.
Tampa Bay runs for 200 yards and still loses
The Bucs will pile up another 200 rushing yards, and it still won't be enough.
Against Atlanta, Tampa Bay ran 56 times for 324 yards. Bucky Irving gained 170 yards on 27 carries, and Kenny Gainwell added 140 on 25. Baker Mayfield attempted only three passes in steady rain.
Bucky Irving TD!
He's up to 169 yards!
ATLvsTB on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/PsIV3YPlxE— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026
Chicago's run defense is beatable, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in EPA per rush, so the ground game will work on Sunday night.
The problem is what happens when Chicago scores early. The Bucs average 22.3 points a game. A team rated poorly through the air can't easily come back against the best third-down defense in football, according to one projection.
I'm projecting 200 rushing yards because the Bears' run defense can't stop everything. But Tampa Bay's offense needs scoring drives, not just yards, and the run game alone won't produce 30 points.
Article Continues BelowInjuries make it harder. Gainwell is questionable with a hip issue, and outside linebacker Yaya Diaby was trending toward out. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka was inactive last week with a foot injury and is also a concern.
Mayfield throws 35 passes and the Bears win 34–20
The game ends with Chicago winning 34–20, and Mayfield forced into a very different afternoon than the one in Tampa.
A 34–20 final would add up to 54 points, clearing the 46.5 total comfortably, and it would give Chicago a 14-point cover.
Mayfield returned from a fractured thumb two games ago and is still working back to full rhythm. He has 679 passing yards and three touchdowns on the season, so asking him to throw 35 times is a real shift for this offense.
That volume creates risk. If Chicago leads by two scores in the third quarter, Tampa Bay has to abandon the run and put the ball in Mayfield's hands. I expect two interceptions, including one that sets up a Chicago touchdown.
The Bucs will compete. They'll move the ball, their kicker has been perfect this season and their defense will make a few plays. But the Bears' offense is more dangerous, and they are better built to play with a lead.