Sean Payton's Broncos have built their identity on a physical defense and a quarterback who protects the football. Jim Harbaugh's Chargers want to run the ball, shorten the game and lean on Justin Herbert's arm when it counts. Both teams know each other well, and divisional games tend to be tight, ugly and decided late. Here are three predictions for how this one plays out.

Denver's pass rush sacks Justin Herbert four times

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws in the second half against the Buffalo Bills at New Highmark Stadium.
Image Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Broncos' defense is built to attack the quarterback, and the Chargers' offensive line is the most obvious pressure point in this matchup. Denver's front can win with speed off the edge and with creative blitz packages from the secondary. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has a long record of designing pressure that confuses protection schemes, and he knows Herbert well from the divisional matchups.

Herbert is an elite thrower, but he has taken plenty of hits when protection breaks down. Denver's secondary is also strong enough to cover long enough for the rush to get home. If the Chargers fall behind the chains, the Broncos can pin their ears back on third down. Four sacks is a big number, but a handful of those could come in the fourth quarter, when Los Angeles will likely be forced to throw. Even when Herbert escapes, the pressure should limit the deep passing game and turn explosive plays into checkdowns.

Bo Nix runs for a touchdown and throws for 250 yards without a turnover

Bo Nix has been at his best when he stays patient and uses his legs to extend drives. The Chargers' defense is disciplined, but it can be vulnerable to a mobile quarterback who scrambles when coverage holds up downfield. I think Nix steals a red-zone touchdown on the ground, a designed keeper or a scramble when the pocket breaks down.

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He also reaches roughly 250 passing yards with no interceptions. Courtland Sutton is the big-bodied target Nix trusts on contested throws, and I expect Sutton to catch a touchdown on a back-shoulder fade. Payton will call the game conservatively when he has a lead, but he will push the ball downfield early to set the tone. A clean game from Nix would be a big advantage in a rivalry matchup where mistakes decide outcomes.

The Chargers' running game keeps it close, but the Broncos win by a field goal

Harbaugh's identity is physical, run-first football. Even if Herbert is under pressure, the Chargers will keep pounding the ball, and I think their ground game will be effective enough to keep them in the game into the fourth quarter. Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell will force Denver's linebackers to tackle in space. Quentin Johnston can also turn a short throw into a big play if the Broncos' secondary gets too aggressive.

Even so, Denver's defense should make one more stop than Los Angeles manages. I'm predicting a 20-17 Broncos win, with the winning field goal coming in the final two minutes. The Broncos' ability to create negative plays and win the turnover battle gives them a slight edge in a game that could easily go either way.