The arms race in the NFC is heating up, and the days leading up to Week 8 of the NFL season are a perfect example. Three NFC contenders pulled off blockbuster trades to address some of their biggest weaknesses.
The Seattle Seahawks were the first team to pull the trigger, acquiring All-People guard Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts. The San Francisco 49ers followed suit, reuniting with DeForest Buckner in another deal in the Colts' fire sale. On Thursday, the Chicago Bears joined the party, sending pair of first-round picks to the Tennessee Titans for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
Now, two of those teams will square off with their new additions in Week 8 when the Bears take on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Both teams are trailing the two best records in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers, in their respective division races, so this game is a pivotal one in the NFC Wild Card race.
Of course, this game also features two of the best play-callers in football. Ben Johnson is one of the best offensive minds in the game and has turned Caleb Williams into one of the brightest young stars in the game. On the other side, Mike Macdonald has already won a Super Bowl and is the best defensive play-caller in football. On Sunday night, the two will go head-to-head when the Bears have the ball.
The battle between Nelson and Simmons when Seattle has the ball will get a lot of the attention in this game, but the matchup between Johnson and Macdonald will more than likely determine the winner. Let's get into everything to look for when the two young stars of the coaching realm go at it in prime time in Week 8.
Who wins the battle on the ground?
Williams gets a lot of the shine for the Bears's offense, and deservedly so. He is one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the NFL and is blossoming into a star in his second year with Johnson calling the shots. But Johnson's offenses, dating all the way back to his time with the Lions, have always been driven by the running game first and foremost.
Entering Week 8, the Bears led the NFL with 154.3 rushing yards per game. Chicago doesn't have a superstar running back, and their efficiency numbers have sat in the middle of the pack as Kyle Monangai has been out with an injury. But when they are both healthy, D'Andre Swift and Monangai form one of the toughest duos in football.
One of the Bears' favorite ways to get into those run looks is out of 12 personnel with both Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet on the field. Unfortunately, in Week 7, Kmet suffered a serious injury and will be out for the foreseeable future. That takes away the best tight end, who also lines up as a fullback at times, for the Bears.
Sam Roush would be next in line for Chicago as a blocking tight end, but he had a rough game earlier in the year against the Vikings and hasn't earned the full trust of Johnson yet. Whether he has a big role on Monday night remains to be seen.
On the other side, the Chicago run game will be tested in a major way against arguably the best run defense in all of football. The Seahawks absolutely shut down the Chiefs a week ago after Kansas City came into the game with the most explosive rushing attack in the NFL.
The stats against the runs for Mike Macdonald and company are incredible: second in yards per rush allowed (3.5), fourth in runs of 10 or more yards allowed (13), seventh in stuff rats (20.0%), and second in EPA per rush allowed (-0.20) per Next Gen Stats.
Seattle's entire front seven has been phenomenal this season as expected. Byron Murphy II has a team-high 13 stops on the year, defined by PFF as plays that result in a failure for the offense. Drake Thomas and Leonard Williams have 10 each, and Nick Emmanwori and DeMarcus Lawrence have nine each. This Seattle defense creates a ton of negative plays, and almost everyone on their defense is capable of making them.
Emmanwori is the key to the Seahawks' attack on the defensive side of the ball. He allows Seattle to defend the run without getting into big personnel and giving up bodies in coverage. A week ago, the Seahawks played zero snaps in base personnel against a Chiefs team that loves to put multiple tight ends on the field, and they still held Kenneth Walker III to just 36 yards. Against a Bears team that likes to play heavy personnel, Emmanwori's presence is a massive factor in maintaining Seattle's versatility.
How will Caleb Williams attack through the air?
Williams, who faced a lot of criticism for his completion percentage a season ago, is now second in the league in that stat at 71%. However, he has sacrificed some of his aggressiveness for that. Williams, as he has grown in Johnson's system, is getting the ball out on time more and taking the easy yards underneath, which has helped the overall health of this passing game. His air yards per attempt is down to 6.2 yards from 8.4 a season ago.
There's one problem with that in this matchup. The Seahawks want you to do exactly that. Macdonald's group excels at taking away throwing windows down the field, making you check it down, and then swarming to the ball and making the tackle.
Seattle's average target separation this season on defense is 3.9 yards, actually tied for the highest number in football. But the Seahawks have still allowed the third-fewest yards after the catch in football this year because of how good they are at rallying and getting ballcarriers on the ground. Incredibly, the Seahawks have only missed 48 tackles all season according to PFF.
The numbers back up the way that the Seahawks play in coverage. Seattle is No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per pass allowed on intermediate throws and No. 2 on deep throws, per Next Gen Stats. If you aren't willing to take your medicine, Macdonald's group will punish you time and time again.
Williams, while he has been more willing to take the underneath throws this season, has been one of the league's best passers when pushing the ball down the field. He is fourth in the NFL in EPA per play on intermediate throws and leads the league with an incredible +1.98 EPA per dropback on deep passes.
A lot of that is set up by the Bears' play-action game, which has become one of the best in the NFL. But if Kmet being out hurts the running game, it's going to be very hard to open up those windows in the Seattle coverage to create big plays through the air.