7 NFL truths we already believe after 4 weeks

Four weeks of play in the NFL is where the rubber starts to meet the road. Everyone has had time to ease their way into the season, with teams more or less running where they should be for the remainder of the year. It’s been one of the most surprising starts to a season in recent memory, with locks plummeting, underdogs rising, and a full shakeup coming around the league.

While it still feels very early to make bold predictions about how this season will play out, we do have some thoughts based on what we’ve seen happen in the season. Here are the things we think we know about the NFL after four weeks.

It’s growing increasingly likely that we’re going to see a surprise in the MVP race this year. We had the usual suspect favorites before the season began in Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow — but it’s feeling like none of those guys have an edge at this point in the season.

Allen is still playing good football, but early in the season he’s taken a small step back from his 2025 form. As for the rest of the favorite field, it’s a mixed bag. Stafford has been mediocre; Jackson has been good, but the injury bug is creeping in, while Joe Burrow has been excellent, but not electric.

There is a wide-open door for some guys to make a dark horse run. Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing touchdowns along with … Kirk Cousins?! Bryce Young is the league leader in passing right now. At running back we have Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson on pace for over 2,000 yards each. Then there’s CeeDee Lamb, who is trending towards a 2,000 yard receiving season with 17+ touchdowns.

Right now there is simply a ludicrous amount of talent who weren’t the preseason favorites, and the odds that they will all struggle for the remainder of the season is slim. I think we’re going to see a major shock when the end of season voting rolls around.

Philadelphia is sitting at 2-2 on paper, which really isn’t that bad — but the vibes feel off with this football team. Even looking at the Eagles’ two wins, they only managed single-score victories over the Commanders and Titans, and are currently sitting at a significant scoring differential of -18. This puts them on par with the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers — hardly the company they want to keep.

Offensively the team is a mess, and while the defense is keeping them in games, they’ve yet to really face an elite team this season, with their combined opponents’ W/L record sitting at 6-10. Something has to change to save their season, and fast.

Doubting the Chiefs is the NFL equivalent of “fool me once, shame on you — fool me twice, shame on me.” Every single time this team gets counted out they manage to rebound, and once more we’re seeing Kansas City become one of the top teams in the league.

Patrick Mahomes is quietly having a massive bounce-back, which is wild considering there’s never been much quiet around Pat Mahomes. Meanwhile, the defense has been as good as any in the NFL, allowing only 77 points across four games and ensuring the job for the offense is as easy as possible.

With a legitimate running back in Kenneth Walker, the Chiefs look like they’re poised to make another deep run in the AFC after missing the playoffs a year ago. This team is back.

Carolina’s overall record of 2-2 hardly leaps off the page, but something special is brewing in Charlotte. Now entering their bye week, the Panthers are running one of the NFL’s best offenses despite having a patchwork offensive line riddled with injury holes, while being banged up at wide receiver. Now the Panthers are poised to get back as many as NINE players, including FIVE starters from injured reserve or short-term injury after their bye, fully reloading before they hit the midpoint of the season.

It’s too early to tell whether this is a legitimate contender (they probably aren’t due to defensive issues), but the fact is that the Panthers are not an easy out on the schedule anymore. Looking ahead at their slate every game feels winnable for them now, with eight feeling like games where they now have the edge.

Sunday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs dropped the Las Vegas Raiders from the unbeaten ranks.

But in that loss, Kirk Cousins and the Raiders showed that they are indeed back.

Through four weeks the Raiders have been perhaps the most surprising story of the NFL season, but in Sunday’s loss Las Vegas showed they could indeed play with the NFL’s best. The Raiders took a lead in the fourth quarter on a Matt Gay field goal, and just when you thought a difficult sequence ended any chance of a Las Vegas win — the Chiefs not only took a 23-19 lead on their ensuing possession but a fumble on the ensuing kickoff set the stage for a second Kansas City touchdown in a matter of seconds to give the Chiefs a 30-19 lead — the Raiders stormed back.

The late rally fell short, but the Raiders are for real.

After two weeks, the Atlanta Falcons were 0-2 thanks to one of the worst passing games in recent NFL history.

Much has changed since then.

Yes, the return of Michael Penix Jr. is a part of that. The young quarterback completed 18-of-25 passes for 256 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 35-14 win over the Green Bay Packers back in Week 3, and followed that up with a 15-for-20 outing against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, throwing for 223 yards and a touchdown in a 45-24 win. The passing game, which was dismal in the hands of Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, has taken a massive step forward.

But the Falcons have also remembered they have Bijan Robinson, one of the premier talents in the game. While he was held below the 100-yard mark in each of the first two weeks, Robinson ripped off 194 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Packers, and another 145 yards and two scores against New Orleans.

Suddenly, this team we buried after two weeks looks like a potential problem in the NFC.

Two teams we thought were a lock for the postseason in the AFC are now both 0-4. Everything is going wrong for the Texans and Chargers, and while it’s fair to note they are both dealing with injuries, neither looks like they’ll even make it to the playoffs, let alone contend.

What’s so wild about both organizations is the surprising ways in which they’re struggling. The Texans defense has crumbled, allowing 109 points so far (26th in the NFL), while the normally safe Justin Herbert has turned into a turnover machine, with six interceptions in four games.

In both cases it feels like a freight train that’s running away from their respective coaches, and it’s unclear if either can get their teams back on track.