NEW YORK – It’s two games. After six months of being one of baseball's best teams, not to mention two Wild Card Series wins, the Yankees haven’t looked like themselves in the American League Division Series.

For two games.

That means they’re one game from elimination. But it also means they’re still just three wins from advancing. History isn’t kind to teams that fall behind 2-0 in best-of-five series, but a comeback wouldn’t be unprecedented and certainly isn’t impossible. As manager Aaron Boone noted Monday night, it starts by winning one game.

“We've got to play the first inning of Game 3,” Boone said. “We've got to come out and play well. So we've responded all year. We need to do it again. Obviously, we need to play better, and it starts with just one at a time. I don't even get ahead of myself and win three. We've got to go win one and we've got to play better Wednesday night to make that happen.”

Here are five reasons to believe they can do it.

1. The offense is better than this
The Rays have pitched really well, so take nothing from them. And, yes, the Yankees are without Aaron Judge and won’t get him back this round. But this is not a hapless offense. New York finished second in the Majors in home runs (223), eighth in walks (572), sixth in slugging percentage (.409) and tied for ninth in runs scored (739). They hung 18 runs on a good Red Sox team in two games, and that was also without Judge.

Getting back home should make a difference (see below), but mostly just be patient. This team can hit.

“Obviously, [Drew] Rasmussen really shut us down the first night,” Boone said. “[We] hit a couple of balls on the screws, but for the most part, he had his way with us and kind of dominated the game. Last night, I thought offensively better at-bats, like we had some opportunities, especially in the middle of the game. I thought [Cody Bellinger] had a great at-bat with the bases loaded there. We were able to knock [Freddy] Peralta out. Didn't find the hole and then just not enough.”

2. So is the defense
There’s no sugarcoating it, New York played a shambolic defensive Game 2, but that’s not really who the Yankees are. They’re not a bad defensive team. They finished third in the AL in defensive efficiency, and middle of the pack in Outs Above Average and runs prevented, per Statcast. The Rays will continue to try to put pressure on them, and it will probably succeed at times. But don’t expect another four-error game.

3. Starting pitching
It’s the oldest trope in baseball, but it’s true: everything flows from starting pitching. And the good news is, the Yankees still have it in spades. They’ve got Max Fried, who would be a Game 1 starter for many teams, going in Game 3. They’ve got Carlos Rodón, who has a shaky postseason resume but stuffed the Rays just a couple of weeks ago, in Game 4 (if necessary) on Thursday. And if the series goes back to St. Petersburg for a decisive Game 5 on Saturday, you can be confident Cam Schlittler will find more success with another opportunity.

More specifically, they send two lefties to the mound the next two days, and Tampa Bay has been one of MLB’s worst teams against left-handed pitching. Any comeback starts with Fried and then Rodón.

“If we don't win, we go home, and this is where you leave everything out on the field,” Fried said. “There's nothing else to save anything for. So for me, I understand that the leash is probably going to be pretty small, and we have to do whatever we can to win.”

4. Home sweet home
The Rays are built for their ballpark. The Yankees are built for theirs. New York’s homer-driven offense will play better in the cozy dimensions in the Bronx. Tampa Bay’s slap-it-around style will be slowed a bit by natural grass. And then there’s the crowd. It was loud and rowdy in St. Petersburg, but there are few places like Yankee Stadium when it gets rocking. If the home team gives the home crowd any reason at all to get engaged, they’ll get it.

5. The moment won’t be too big
This is an experienced team. They’ve seen a lot and they are used to having moments turned into supposed crises by the people who follow them and talk about them. But Boone is a steady hand. Fried has extensive playoff experience. Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are guys who understand that there’s urgency but that there’s still a game to play.