Week 2 is in the rearview and the fantasy landscape is changing quickly. These are the 10 storylines you need to know for Week 3.
1) QB Apocalypse
Injuries hit every position hard in Week 1, but the quarterback changes will have trickle-down effects for entire offenses. These are the quarterbacks that went down in Week 2 with some general return timelines:
- Caleb Williams (hamstring) - week to week
- Tyson Bagent (concussion) - might not play in Week 3 either
- Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow) - out at least a month, likely longer
- Jaxson Dart (knee) - possibly out for the year
On top of that, Sam Darnold could miss one more week with a glute injury. Here’s how the backups look using data from the past five seasons. I’ve included percentile ranks next to every stat for context.
Mariota looks good in every stat. He’s one of the league’s best backups. It’s a shame the Commanders aren’t going to have a dynamic, breakout bet at quarterback for a while, but the fantasy names should survive as long as Mariota stays healthy.
Neither Lock nor Winston are particularly consistent or accurate, but they come out as roughly average or even slightly above average in EPA per play. Winston also has a penchant for passing volume and Lock has put some of his best performances on tape in his most recent starts. As we’ve already seen, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be just fine until Darnold returns, though there are no other pass-catchers of note in that offense.
Winston is a bit more concerning. He has averaged 267 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns over his past nine starts, the bulk of which came in Cleveland two years ago. That’s phenomenal. On the other hand, he was dreadful on Monday night. In fact, he is now dead last in the NFL in CPOE and second-to-last in EPA per play.
That may have been a one-off. Or Winston could have taken a step back. If he looks anything like that while Dart is out, there won’t be a fantasy-relevant Giant for a while.
I wrote up Bagent as the worst of the bunch before it was announced that he is dealing with a concussion. Bagent isn’t particularly efficient or accurate, especially when adjusting for his pitiful target depth. On the other hand, he’s likely better than Case Keenum, who will be making the start this week if both Bagent and Williams are ruled out. Running backs aside, there isn’t a startable Bear for week 3 if Keenum is the starter.
2) Travis Etienne: Zone, dead
The idea of the “Running Back Dead Zone” hasn’t been as prevalent in recent years with receiver and running back prices changing, but Travis Etienne is looking to bring it back in style. Eight different running backs signed extensions or free agent deals worth more than $10 million per year this offseason. Seven of them have at least 30 carries through two weeks. Etienne, the eighth, has just 17 attempts. The team split his workload with Kendre Miller in Week 1. They made Miller a healthy scratch with Alvin Kamara available last week. Kamara saw one more carry and caught three more passes. Etienne will struggle to put up even RB3 numbers if this usage continues.
3) Chiefs rediscover the forward pass
The Chiefs were extremely successful in Week 1 when they stomped the Broncos, but the passing attack was a catastrophe. Patrick Mahomes finished the week last in the league in CPOE and Andy Reid dialed up a balanced pass/run split for the first time in my adult life. While Mahomes’ aDOT remained muted in Week 2, he had a positive CPOE and the team’s pass rate over expected jumped from just over zero to 5.2 percent.
Because the team passed more often but still operated on a check-down-first basis, Travis Kelce racked up 11 targets, nine of which he caught for 101 yards and a score. It was his highest yardage total in a regular season game since Week 7 of the 2023 season. Kenneth Walker was also heavily involved, adding six catches on 10 targets. Rashee Rice has been weirdly lacking in the box scores through two weeks. The fact that Kansas City is still a low aDOT team and he isn’t putting up gaudy scores is a major concern.
4) Parker Washington is going to bury me
I didn’t draft very much Washington this year. I’m terrified. Washington is “only” the WR10 right now, but he has a top-five role. He has a 38 percent target share and an absurd 50 percent air yards share. His weighted opportunity rating of .94 trails only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He also ran nearly all of the routes in Week 2, logging a 90 percent route rate. Washington looks the part of a WR1 as well. He ranks top-five in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run.
Trevor Lawrence is 24th in pass attempts through two weeks. He didn’t need to throw in a Week 1 blowout win over the Browns and he didn’t get many chances to drop back in a low-scoring loss to the Broncos on Sunday. The Jags have a mixed bag of games coming up, but it’s hard to imagine Lawrence being one of the lowest-volume passers in the league. He was sixth in attempts last year. Once the opportunities increase, Washington is going to take off.
5) Alec Pierce fantasy fallout
Pierce’s ankle/heel issue clearly was not right in Week 1, but he gutted it out and ran 65 percent of the routes. That fell to 21 percent in Week 2 when he left the game early after aggravating the injury. Pierce is expected to miss an extended period of time while the team figures out how to proceed with his lingering injury. With Pierce barely playing in Week 2, Downs took over as the Colts’ clear No. 1 receiver. He ran over 90 percent of the routes for the second week in a row and earned a 30 percent target share. Downs also accounted for 42 percent of Indy’s air yards. Keenan Allen surprisingly ran fewer routes in Week 2, and it was Laquon Treadwell who got on the field more with Pierce unavailable. The team has since signed Darius Slayton to fill the Pierce role. Downs’ big issue for multiple years was a lack of routes. The team viewed him as a slot-only player, limiting how often he could get on the field. Downs is still playing primarily out of the slot, but his 27 percent route rate from a wide alignment is currently a career-high. This is what a breakout looks like.
6) Bryce Young’s breakout
Bryce Young looks like a different player this year. From RotoViz, this is a simple look at Young’s heatmap of passes from 2025.
He was good when throwing deep and outside but did so at an alarmingly low rate. Young also struggled when pushing the ball intermediate and deep over the middle of the field, so he rarely did it. This is his 2026 map.
Not only is he gaining more yards in all but one area of the field, but he is also targeting defenses deep at a much higher clip. Dave Canales gave up play-calling duties on offense during the offseason, passing them over to OC Brad Idzik. The efficiency returns have been great, and the volume is even better. The Panthers had a -5.3% PROE last year. That is up to +4.3% this season. The Panthers are now the second-fastest team in neutral situations. They were 23rd in situation neutral pace in 2025.
7) Jameson Williams can’t get going
It’s only two games, but it’s quickly looking like we’re back to the old Jamo. Williams is currently being targeted on 15 percent of his routes and he’s scored a grand total of 13.8 fantasy points. His aDOT of 13.8 (just a coincidence) isn’t particularly high, so it’s not like the team is having him run exclusively clear out routes. He simply can’t earn targets at a high clip right now.
Fittingly, his numbers right now are almost identical to what they were in 2025 while Sam LaPorta was healthy. With LaPorta active, Williams was targeted on 15 percent of his routes at a 14.2 aDOT. Williams is still seeing more than enough air yards to pop for the occasional spike week, but he’s no longer in the WR2 conversation.
8) Denzel Boston stays hot
Since the turn of the century, Boston is 17th in fantasy points for a rookie wideout through two games. A two-game sample is sometimes meaningless in the grand scheme of NFL stats, but I don’t think it is here. Of the top 25 players on that list, 13 posted WR1 fantasy numbers at some point in their career. Excluding Boston himself, all but three hit at least 800 yards in a season. Early-career production is an incredible predictor of future success, and even a few spike weeks can be very telling.
9) Teams pressing the easy buttons on offense
Play action and pre-snap motion have long been known to be cheat codes on offense. More recently, sharp NFL play-callers have also been getting defenses to crowd the box, often by putting extra tight ends on the field, only to throw into that look. The league-leaders in play-action usage, motion usage, and throw rate against stacked boxes are:
- Buffalo - 46.8%
- Tampa Bay - 73.5%
- Buffalo - 36.7%
The Bills just need to keep up this style of offense and they can set records. Not only are they pressing the easy buttons, Joe Brady is spamming them like a Madden glitch. Buffalo’s play action rate and their stacked box throw rate are both 10 percent higher than the No. 2 team.
I’m not sure what to make of the Bucs since they haven’t been all that good on offense so far. They are also top-five in play-action usage and are just above zero in pass rate over expected. They’re pressing the easy buttons while passing at a reasonably high clip. At some point, Baker Mayfield just has to play better.
The Raiders are third in stacked box throw rate but are almost exactly average in EPA per play in these situations. Getting Brock Bowers back should help Kirk Cousins take advantage of these looks at a much higher clip.
Lastly, Shane Steichen is still dialing up a smart offense. He’s top five in play-action and motion usage. He also barely missed out on a top-five rank in throwing against stacked boxes. I remain optimistic about Downs, Tyler Warren, and Jonathan Taylor this year.
10) TreVeyon Henderson opens the year with a bang
Henderson missed Week 1 with an ankle injury but was back in action on Sunday. He exploded for a 16/76/1 rushing line and there are only positive takeaways to be had from his 2026 debut. He out-carried Rhamondre Stevenson 16-10. Even though Stevenson got the only running back target, Henderson ran 11 routes to Stevenson’s 10. The Pats ran the ball with two or fewer yards to the first-down marker five times on Sunday. Henderson saw three of those carries to Stevenson’s two. He hasn’t fully put away Stevenson, but this was as dominant a debut as Henderson backers could hope for.
