Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 113

UFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira continues on the main card with the co-main event between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Albazi-Horiguchi prediction and pick.

Amir Albazi (17-2) returns for the first time in 15 months after a competitive decision loss to Brandon Moreno that snapped his six-fight UFC win streak, which included a headline split nod over Kai Kara-France and a late knockout of Alessandro Costa. The grappling-heavy contender still leans on top control and back takes as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kyoji Horiguchi.

Kyoji Horiguchi (35-5) rides a six-fight unbeaten streak into this weekend, most recently choking out Tagir Ulanbekov in his UFC return after decision wins over Nkazimulo Zulu and Sergio Pettis in RIZIN. The veteran speedster still leans on elusive footwork and slick counters as he comes into his fight this weekend against Amir Albazi.

Here are the UFC Vegas 113 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 113 odds: Amir Albazi-Kyoji Horiguchi odds

Amir Albazi: +295

Kyoji Horiguchi: -375

Over 2.5 rounds: -260 

Under 2.5 rounds: +195

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Why Amir Albazi will win

• Last Fight: (L) Brandon Moreno – DEC 
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 14 (6 KO/TKO/8 SUB)

Amir Albazi’s clearest edge is his grappling depth layered over solid, if unspectacular, striking. He’s an efficient takedown artist with a dangerous back game and proven finishing ability with chokes once he gets prolonged top or back control.

Horiguchi is the cleaner striker and the better minute-winner on the feet, but he’s also 35 with miles on the clock and historically more vulnerable when opponents can extend wrestling sequences. Albazi’s reactive shots, especially his single and double legs from space, give him a real chance to turn Kyoji’s forward bursts into clinches and mat returns.

If Amir can survive the early speed and deny Horiguchi long, clean striking stretches, his advantage in pure submission offense becomes a major swing factor in rounds two and three. Both Albazi’s rear-naked choke and front-choke series have translated against high-level opposition, and Kyoji’s scrambling style occasionally leaves his neck exposed in transitions.

The call for an upset angle is Albazi navigating a few rough stand-up patches, securing key takedowns, and either edging a tight decision or finding a late back-take submission at UFC Vegas 113.

Why Kyoji Horiguchi will win

• Last Fight: (W) Tagir Ulanbekov – SUB R3
• Last 5: 4-0, 1 NC
• Finishes: 21 (15 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

Kyoji Horiguchi’s path to victory is a masterclass in distance management and speed that Albazi has rarely encountered. His karate-based style relies on staying well outside punching range before blitzing in with explosive linear combinations that catch slower opponents resetting. Albazi, who often fights at a methodical, plodding pace, risks being picked apart by these hit-and-run tactics without ever finding a clean entry for his own offense.

Defensively, Horiguchi’s lateral movement and constant bouncing make him an incredibly difficult target for reactive takedowns. He rarely plants his feet long enough for Albazi to time a level change, and his ability to circle out immediately after landing strikes neutralizes the clinch entries Amir relies on to slow fights down.

If the fight stays standing, the volume and damage discrepancy should widen significantly. Horiguchi’s calf kicks and straight punches will punish Albazi’s heavy lead leg and static guard, forcing Amir to chase desperate takedowns that Horiguchi can sprawl and punish.

Without the ability to consistently ground the fight, Albazi is left playing a striking game where he is outgunned in speed, variety, and footwork. The prediction is Kyoji Horiguchi by clear decision, using movement and precision to frustrate Albazi and deny him the grappling sequences he desperately needs to win.

Final Amir Albazi-Kyoji Horiguchi prediction & pick

Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi sets up as an elite striker vs. grappler chess match, but the slight lean is toward Horiguchi edging it on the cards. Over five rounds of tape, Kyoji simply offers the more proven minute-winning style on the feet with speed, footwork, and layered striking variety.

Albazi’s clearest path runs through takedowns and extended back-control sequences. The problem is Horiguchi’s perpetual motion—constant bouncing, angles, and in-and-out entries—makes it hard to time level changes cleanly, especially in open space.

If Amir cannot consistently corral Kyoji to the fence, he is likely to reach on entries, eat counters, or get shrugged off and forced to reset. Meanwhile, Horiguchi’s calf kicks, straight rights, and darting combinations should steadily chip away at Albazi’s base and cardio.

Albazi is dangerous any time he gets to a body lock or creates a scramble, and one clean back-take could flip a round—or the fight. But over three rounds, it is easier to envision Horiguchi defending enough takedowns, staying mobile, and out-landing him with the far more eye-catching striking work.

Kyoji Horiguchi gets the win via a competitive decision, built on superior speed, movement, and clean, visible damage while largely denying Albazi sustained grappling opportunities at UFC Vegas 113.

Final Amir Albazi-Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction & Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi (-375), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)

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