8 teams that can win college basketball’s 2026 men’s national championship

We’re just beyond the halfway point of the 2025-26 college basketball season, and while I’m still not ready to tell you who’s going to be cutting down the nets on the first Monday of April, I’m ready to tell you that it’s absolutely going to be one of the eight teams below.

1. Michigan

Don’t let the mild shakiness of the last couple weeks distract you from the fact that, at their best, no team in college basketball has appeared to be more unstoppable this season than the Michigan Wolverines.

Dusty May’s team is the first in the history of the sport to beat three different ranked opponents by 30 or more points, a feat they had completed on Jan. 2. At the moment, they have 10 wins by 20 or more points, eight wins by 30 or more points, six wins by 40 or more points, and one win of more than 50 points.

Michigan has the best overall defense in the sport, a bona fide star in Yaxel Lendeborg, a freshman sensation in Morez Johnson, a unicorn big man in Aday Mara, and a battle tested floor general in Elliot Cadeau.

The pieces for the program’s long-awaited second national title are all there.

2. Arizona

While Michigan might be the betting favorite to win the national championship, the Wolverines are not college basketball’s No. 1 team at the halfway mark. That honor belongs to unbeaten Arizona, which also possesses perhaps the sport’s top overall resume.

The 18-0 Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 in Quad I opportunities, and figure to be 20-0 overall when they travel to play fellow title contender BYU on Jan. 26.

In an era where the three-point shot is being prioritized more than it ever has before, Arizona has played perfect basketball this season while mostly ignoring the perimeter. Only two of the 365 teams in Division-I have shot fewer three-pointers than the Wildcats have so far this season.

That doesn’t mean ‘Zona isn’t fun to watch.

The Wildcats dominate the glass, take (and make) high-percentage shots via beautiful halfcourt offense, and have a quartet of the most entertaining players in the sport in Koa Peat, Brayden Burries, Jaden Bradley and Motiejus Krivas (Tobe Awaka’s cool too). They’ve also made more free-throws than their opponents have taken, but that’s not particularly entertaining.

3. Houston

The Cougars came within one made shot (and one avoided late-game collapse) of winning the program’s first national title last season. Despite that heartbreak, Kelvin Sampson’s 2025-26 squad appears fully capable of playing itself back into that position a few months from now.

The Cougars’ only loss at the moment remains a narrow defeat at the hands of Tennessee at the Players Era Festival in Vegas back in November. UH is 11-0 since then, and figures to have a gaudy record in mid-February when it enters a critical three-game stretch where it will face Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona. How they handle those three should give some critical pre-March insight into just how much of a national title contender the Cougs are.

This team has star power in the form of Emmanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and freshman sensation Kingston Flemings, as well as one of the best defensive players in the sport in Joseph Tugler. Toss in arguably the best coach in the sport, and you have plenty of reasons to believe this could be the year Houston finally earns the one distinction that has eluded them.

4. UConn

After back-to-back national championships, the Huskies never felt like a realistic title contender in 2024-25. Few people expected that to become a trend, and Dan Hurley has made the ones who did look foolish.

Connecticut is 18-1 with their lone defeat coming by 4 to Arizona in a game where leading scorer and rebounder Tarris Reed did not play. They’ve won 14 straight since then, including Quad I wins over Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Seton Hall.

UConn might not have the potential to be as dominant as they were in ‘23 or ‘24, but they’re certainly good enough to hoist the same trophy those Husky squads did.

5. Purdue

They aren’t quite the juggernaut some folks were predicting they’d be before the start of the season, but there’s been nothing from Purdue so far this season that indicates the Boilermakers don’t have the potential to win six straight games in March and early April.

Yes, their one loss was bad — a 23-point home drubbing at the hands of Iowa State — but it bears repeating that it was their one loss. The Boilermakers didn’t play quite as tough a non-conference slate as most of the teams on this list, so their overall resume isn’t as strong as the undefeated and other one-loss teams we’re discussing, but being able to traverse yet another loaded Big Ten schedule would fix that.

We thought Purdue would be the best offensive team in the country. They are. We thought Braden Smith would continue to put up absurd numbers in his senior season. He is. We thought the addition of Oscar Cluff would help with the team’s interior defense issues. It’s happening.

Teams have bad nights. Purdue had an awful night on Dec. 6. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to have an awful night in March.

6. Duke

There are so many things you can point to that justify having the Blue Devils here.

For starters, they have the guy who’s been the best player in college basketball. Through two and-a-half months, Cam Boozer has been even better than advertised.

Next up, there’s Jon Scheyer. He’s already proven he can take Duke to the sport’s final weekend, and maybe the lessons he took away from last year’s gut-punch loss to Houston will help him get over the hump in a semifinal this April.

You’ve got an elite shooter in Isaiah Evans, a veteran guard in Caleb Foster, and another emerging option at guard in Cayden Boozer. You’ve also got an ex-factor with unlimited potential in Dame Sarr, who is exactly the type of player with modest stats who “comes out of nowhere” and takes over a game in the tournament right at the moment his team needs a hero.

Duke can absolutely win it all.

7. Illinois

No team in college hoops better fits the description of “modern basketball” than Illinois.

The Illini have four elite players who were professionals in Europe before making the leap to the States, they convinced Kylan Boswell to return for his senior season, they brought in one of the best player in the portal in Andrej Stojakovic (Cal), and like so many teams on this list, they have a superstar freshman (Keaton Wagler).

Everyone can shoot, everyone can share, and it feels like 70 percent of them are 6’9 or taller.

While the defense is just good, not great, there is no team in college basketball that’s more of a challenge to defend than the Illini. When that’s the case, you’re typically a top tier national title contender.

8. Florida

I STILL BELIEVE.

I know there are some furious fans right now of Iowa State, BYU, Gonzaga and others. I don’t know what to say. I’m sorry. For what it’s worth, the Cyclones would have been next on this list, followed by the Cougars.

I chose to stick with Florida in this spot because of their ceiling, the fact that they seem to be coming around a little bit, and because they still have the most complete frontcourt in the country.

The backcourt is certainly still an issue. No one’s disputing that.

While Boogie Fland has started to turn his season around, Xaivian Lee is still struggling pretty mightily and Urban Klavzar is just a solid, not spectacular option to put out there with Fland. Obviously, they’re going to need more to repeat as national champs … but getting more there is possible.

The Gators have won four straight, including a 24-point thumping of Tennessee and an upset of top 10 Vanderbilt, and still project as a top 10 team on KenPom. Their six losses came by a combined 17 points (none more than 6) and were all against quality (being kind to Missouri here) opponents. Thomas Haugh is playing like a First Team All-American, and Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu aren’t far behind him.

There are still reasons to believe.