2026 World Cup draw: USMNT’s best and worst-case group scenarios as Tom Brady joins Shaq
US sports royalty has been drafted in to pick groups for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Tom Brady, Shaquille O’Neal, Aaron Judge, and Wayne Gretzky hold the fate of the world in their hands, alongside English soccer icon Rio Ferdinand.
USMNT boss Mauricio Pochettino will be waiting with bated breath at Washington’s Kennedy Center, Washington, not the $2bn Allegiant Stadium like originally planned, knowing full well that a good draw could open the door for a deep run.
On the other hand, the Stars and Stripes could face an uphill battle before a ball has been kicked.
talkSPORT has crunched the numbers to bring the best — and worst – scenarios on Friday.
How does the World Cup draw work?
The 48 teams are divided into four pots with one team from each pot forming a group.
Countries from the same federation cannot be grouped together, with the exception of Europe. A maximum of two UEFA teams can be in one group.
As hosts, Pochettino’s team will be in Pot 1, which avoids many heavyweights, but there are plenty of dangerous opponents throughout the draw. This is the best of the best, after all.
World Cup 2026 match schedule
- Group stage: June 11-27
- Round of 32: June 28 to July 3
- Round of 16: July 4-7
- Quarter-finals: July 9-11
- Semi-finals: July 14-15
- Third-place play-off: July 18
- Final: July 19
Team USA’s best-possible World Cup draw
Australia (World ranking 26th)
Theoretically the weakest team in Pot 2 is Australia. (Sorry, Robert Irwin).
Ranked 12 places below the USA, the squad doesn’t have a superstar to call upon but several players feature the the higher levels of European football.
The Socceroos have made the last six World Cups but have never made it past the Round of 16.
Australia qualified automatically after finishing behind Japan in the third round of the Asian qualifying path
South Africa (61st)
2010 hosts South Africa would be a welcome addition out of Pot 3.
Many of the squad play at home, although some are scattered throughout Europe.
Bafana Bafana finished top of their qualifying group with five wins from 10 matches and oddsmakers have them as one of the least-likely winners from any country to have secured a place in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
Kosovo (80th)
A tiny landlocked country in Southeast Europe, Kosovo have not yet secured a place in the tournament but will be a potential Pot 4 tie if they win UEFA Play-off Path C.
The Dardanians face a playoff against Slovakia and, if they win, would take on Turkey or Romania for a right to reach a first ever World Cup.
Despite a lowly ranking, Kosovo only finished three points behind Switzerland in their qualifying group — topping both Slovenia and Sweden.
Beating the Swedes home and away suggests that if the country of 1.7 million people can make it this far, they are not to be underestimated.
The alternatives, though, are far more dangerous, with Poland, Denmark, Ukraine, and Wales all ranked in the world’s top 35.
There is one major surprise package lurking in the European play-offs, too. More on that below.
Team USA’s worst-possible World Cup draw
Morocco (11th)
Morrocco finished fourth at the last World Cup after a shock run to the semi-finals.
It shouldn’t have been that much of a surprise.
Captain Achraf Hakimi is a world-class talent who just won the Champions League with Paris Saint-Germain, scoring the first goal in a 5-0 demolition of Inter Milan.
Manager Walid Regragui has been in the post since 2022 and knows how to get the best out of his players, winning eight of eight qualifiers to become the first African nation in the draw.
Norway (29th)
We could probably stop there. The Manchester City striker has 55 goals in 48 international appearances.
Norway have underachieved considering they boast the Manchester City goalscorer, as well as Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard and other top-flight talent.
The Scandinavians dominated qualifying, winning eight of eight matches to finish ahead of four-time world champions Italy, who they beat 3-0 and 4-1.
Their relatively low ranking will not stay that way if results keep coming and no team from Pot 3 carries the same threat.
Italy (12th)
Norway’s form saw Italy drop into the play-off where they will be favourites to qualify through Path A.
From captain and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, to stars like Alessandro Bastoni, Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Barella, the squad is not one of a Pot 4 nation.
But that is exactly where Gli Azzurri will be if they can see off Northern Ireland and then either Wales or Bosnia.
It is unlikely, but facing semi-finalists from Qatar, arguably the world’s best striker and one of the most decorated national teams of all time would be rotten luck for Pochettino & Co.
World Cup draw
Which teams are in which pots?
Pot 1: Canada, Mexico, USA, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany
Pot 2: Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran, Korea Republic, Ecuador, Austria, Australia
Pot 3: Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa
Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, New Zealand, European Play-Off A, B, C and D, FIFA Play-Off Tournament 1 and 2
The 2026 World Cup draw is scheduled to start at 5pm UK time (12 pm ET).
talkSPORT is in the USA all week to bring you the proceedings live, while there will also be a dedicated World Cup draw blog on talkSPORT.com.
We’ll be live from 4pm with Adrian Durham, Stuart Pearce, Danny Murphy and Charlie Mulgrew reacting as England, Scotland and the rest of the world learn their fate.
Then Drive hosts Andy Goldstein and Darren Bent will host an after party live from Tom’s Watch Bar in Washington, which you can watch on the talkSPORT YouTube channel.
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