Why the Rockets look better without Kevin Durant against Lakers in NBA Playoffs

After falling behind 3-0 to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Houston Rockets have some life again – winning Game 4 and Game 5 to bring the series back to Texas for a Game 6.

Arguably the most bizarre part of all of this is that the Rockets’ have managed this without their leading scorer and best player, Kevin Durant. 

Given how notorious Durant is, this raises an interesting question: are the Rockets a better team without Durant? 

The answer is obviously a resounding no. But then, in a weird way, it is also yes. When the Rockets initially traded for Durant, I was skeptical that it would elevate them to the next level in the way they thought it would. 

Even at the relatively geriatric age of 37, Durant is still one of the most formidable scorers in the association. But so much of Houston’s success last year was predicated on their youth and athleticism sparking easy offense in transition. That just isn’t who Durant is. And since he’s more of a ceiling raiser than a floor enhancer on offense, the value he adds in the halfcourt doesn’t justify what they lose in turnover creation.

We saw this signal in the regular season. In his minutes, the Rockets had a pedestrian change in their point differential (49th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass). Durant improved their offense (+3.4 points per 100 possessions), but the hit to their defensive rating was slightly higher (+4.1 per 100). 

The bottom line here is the Rockets’ halfcourt offense is too flawed for Durant to fix. So, trying to win the turnover battle is still their best avenue for success. That’s exactly what’s happened in the last two games. In Games 4 and 5, Houston has won the turnover battle 39-24 and the points off of turnover battle 48-32. 

Even the miniature Reed Sheppard does a better job of defensive playmaking (93rd percentile steal rate) than The Slim Reaper (17th percentile steal rate). When it looked like the Rockets were going to choke another game away down the stretch, it was the sophomore guard who grabbed it by its balls, literally:

Of course, this doesn’t explain how the Rockets lost Games 1 and 3, which Durant also wasn’t in uniform for (frankly, nothing can explain their Game 3 collapse). It also helps that the Lakers are shooting just 24.5% from three in the last two games after hitting 46.5% of those shots in the first three games of the series. 

Still, it is a fascinating case study in the idea that acquiring better teams doesn’t necessarily make your team better. And with the recent news that Durant is a no-go for Game 6 as well, who knows, maybe Houston takes this thing all the way to seven.