Why Houston basketball is a clear March Madness contender

In his 37 years as a head coach, winning a Division I national title is the only accomplishment that has eluded Kelvin Sampson. The 70-year-old coach has arguably his best chance to do so with Houston in 2026, with star freshman Kingston Flemings putting the Cougars in position to clinch a March Madness championship.

Sampson and Flemings have Houston sitting at 18-2 through 20 games, including 6-1 in the Big 12. The Cougars are currently second in the conference with one game remaining in January, only behind top-ranked Arizona.

However, Houston remains relatively unproven, with a mere 2-2 record against top-25-ranked opponents. They have a chance to squash that narrative over the final two months of the regular season, which include a gauntlet of matchups with Arizona, BYU, Iowa State and Kansas.

Still, Houston’s first two losses have come by a combined seven points, with both games coming down to the wire. Even on their worst days, the Cougars have kept pace with the best teams in the country.

The primary criticism of Sampson’s previous teams has been their lack of offensive firepower, but that has not been the case this season. For possibly the first time in Sampson’s career, Houston has an elite, go-to isolation scorer in Flemings, who has taken the country by storm in the second half of the 2025-2026 college basketball season.

With Flemings leading the offense and its typical stifling defense on the other end, Houston potentially has its best championship-level roster since Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon’s “Phi Slama Jama” team in 1984.

Kelvin Sampson has a go-to scorer with Kingston Flemings

Since his fifth year with Houston, Kelvin Sampson has turned the Cougars into a physical, defensive powerhouse that teams hate having to gameplan against. Unfortunately, that brand of basketball has not attracted many high-level scorers or top-notch recruits to Sampson’s teams, ultimately limiting them in March Madness.

While Houston has not lost 10 games in a single season since 2016-2017, it has also only reached the Elite Eight twice in the last decade. One of those runs was the Cougars’ runner-up season in 2024-2025, which ended in heartbreak in the National Championship Game.

Sampson is knocking on the door, but he has consistently lacked the offensive talent to get over the hump. All that has changed in 2025-2026 with Kingston Flemings, who has suddenly evolved into one of the best scorers in the country.

Like most freshmen, Flemings struggled to develop consistency early in his career. However, he turned a corner midway through December, averaging 18.7 points and 5.7 assists while shooting 47 percent from the floor in his last 10 games.

Flemings, who also leads the team with 5.4 assists per game, has reached an even higher level in his last three games. The freshman averaged 29.7 points from Jan. 18 to Jan. 28, during which he went off the rails with a historic 42-point outburst against Texas Tech.

Houston has not had an elite scorer like Flemings since Rob Gray led the team in 2017-2018, before Sampson shifted the program outlook. The Cougars remain a top-five defensive team in the country, but they now have a player capable of taking over a game on offense, which is a combination they have not had in years.

Houston’s big men are as physical as they come

Kingston Flemings has shifted the narrative of what a Houston offense looks like under Kelvin Sampson, but its defense remains the same. Through 20 games, the Cougars are allowing just 62.1 points per game, second-fewest in the country.

Houston’s defense is elite overall, but its strength lies in the interior. In accordance with their status quo, Sampson’s team is holding opponents to just 39.8 percent from the floor, including 46.3 percent from within the three-point arc. Both marks are top 25 in the country.

While Houston does not have a singular dominant frontcourt player, its deep rotation gives Sampson an embarrassment of riches up front. Five different forwards average over 10 minutes per game, led by junior Joseph Tuggler and Chris Cenac Jr., who have both set the tone for the Cougars all year.

Flemings is the Cougars’ most valuable player, but Cenac is arguably a bigger X-factor. Houston is best when he is consistently on the floor, which he has been in January. The only game Cenac failed to play at least 20 minutes in was the team’s loss to Texas Tech on Jan. 24.

Tuggler and Cenac are unstoppable once they generate momentum, but foul trouble has plagued both throughout the season. Houston is undefeated in games in which Cenac has two or fewer fouls, but just 6-2 when he picks up three or more.

Defense has never been an issue in any year in which Houston has fallen short in the March Madness tournament. The Cougars are plausibly the stingiest defensive unit in the country once again and are a legitimate threat to give Sampson his first ring with a complete team in 2025-2026.

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