Updated Texans, Colts playoff chances after Houston wins dramatic Week 13 clash

The Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 20-16 on Sunday, throwing a wrench into the AFC South playoff picture. The Jacksonville Jaguars are now tied with the Colts for first place with matching 8-4 records. Houston is just a game behind at 7-5 with recent wins over both clubs. How do the models see the AFC South playing out after the big Texans win?

 The Athletic puts weight on the Texans’ next game.

According to The Athletic’s playoff model, the Texans have the worst chance of making the playoffs of the three AFC South teams. Houston sits at 61%, while Jacksonville has an 85% chance of making the dance, and Indy is at 72%. All three teams play massive games in Week 14, but the attention will be on Jaguars vs Colts in Jacksonville. On Sunday Night Football, the Texans play a massive game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

While the attention is on the AFC South division crown, these teams could all make the playoffs with the three available Wild Card spots. The Texans are one game ahead of the Chiefs in the race for the final spot. Beating them would not only give Houston the tiebreaker but put them two games ahead of the three-time champs with three games to play.

If the Jaguars beat the Colts on Sunday, The Athletic gives them a 97% chance of making the playoffs. That result would put the Colts’ chances all the way down to 56%. If Indy wins, Daniel Jones’ squad would have an 87% chance of making it, while Jacksonville would drop to 72%.

Can Texans, Colts, and Jaguars all make the postseason?

The AFC will look different than it has at any point in the 2020s when January rolls around. The New England Patriots are back in the saddle as the number one seed, which feels all too familiar, even with new faces. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are pulling away from the pack in the AFC West, looking to stop Kansas City’s nine-year reign in the division. And one final quirk could be three teams from the AFC South, which has been brutal in recent years.

The path for all three teams involves a collapse from the usually strong Buffalo Bills. But the Texans have the tiebreaker over Buffalo, which could prove valuable by the end of the season. With some cupcakes on the schedule, like the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets, they can’t count on too many losses from Buffalo.

The Chargers could cede the way for the third AFC South team as well, as they have lost to both the Colts and Jaguars this year. Their Week 17 matchup against the Texans could determine one of the final Wild Card spots in the AFC. Losing to all three South teams would not only pave the way for them all to make it, but would be a huge damper on Jim Harbaugh’s resumé

This would be the first time three AFC South teams made the playoffs since 2007-08. That year, the Texans were the lone man out, with the Colts winning the division at 13-3. Jacksonville slotted in behind them at 11-5, and the Titans rounded out the playoff squads with a 9-7 record. That is the only time three teams from this division have made the postseason since its inception in 2002.

Games to watch in the AFC South

The Colts and Jaguars square off in a massive Week 14 matchup, which is the first one to keep an eye on. After matchups with the Seahawks and 49ers, which could crush their chances, the Colts finish with another Jacksonville matchup and the Texans on the road.

Jacksonville faces the Jets and the Broncos in between Colts matchups. That could be an opportunity to pick up a game on Indy if they dropped both NFC West matchups. While the Broncos are a tough matchup, the Jets should be an easy win for the Jaguars. Aaron Glenn’s squad has not beaten a team over .500 this season.

The Texans have the easiest path home, as they face the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders after the Chiefs matchup. The schedule is leaning in their favor, as those two bottom dwellers come to Houston in December. Following a trip to face the Chargers, Houston finishes with the Colts.

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