Thunder vs. Cavs MLK Day 2026 prediction, odds, pick

We’re back with another betting prediction and pick on Martin Luther King Jr. Day as we turn our attention towards this next cross-conference matchup. The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-8) will visit the Cleveland Cavaliers (24-19) as the two sides meet for the first time this season. Check our NBA odds series for the Thunder-Cavs prediction and pick.

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lead the NBA’s Western Conference following their most recent 122-120 loss to the Miami Heat. The defeat snapped a five-game winning streak as the Thunder now have five of their eight total losses in the last 15 games, still betting favorites ahead of this game.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are currently fifth in the Eastern Conference standings, most recently beating the Philadelphia 76ers 117-115 to complete their back-to-back series sweep in Philly. With a 7-3 record over their last 10, they’ll hope to upset the Thunder as home underdogs.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Thunder vs. Cavs MLK Day Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: -6.5 (-108)

Cleveland Cavaliers: +6.5 (-112)

Over: 231.5 (-115)

Under: 231.5 (-105)

Thunder vs. Cavs Key Injuries 

Oklahoma City: Isaiah Hartenstein (calf – OUT) / Thomas Sorber (knee – OUT) / Jalen Williams (hamstring – OUT)

Cleveland: Dean Wade (knee – Probable) / Darius Garland (toe – OUT) / Sam Merrill (hand – OUT) / Max Strus (foot – OUT)

Thunder vs. Cavs Betting Trends

• The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-10 at home. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 15-5 on the road.
• The Thunder have been listed as betting favorites in every game this season.
• The Cavaliers are 4-5 as underdogs.
• The Cavs are 15-28 ATS overall, 7-17 ATS at home. The Thunder are 21-22 ATS overall, 9-11 ATS on the road.
• The two teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games against one another. OKC is 6-3-1 ATS in those games.
• The Thunder are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Cavaliers are 5-2 in their last seven home games
• The total has gone OVER in four of OKC’s last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland’s last 16 games against Western Conference opponents.

Keys to Thunder vs. Cavs Matchup

The Oklahoma City Thunder come into this game following an upset loss to the Miami Heat as 10-point betting favorites. They’ve lost some continuity over the last 10 games compared to their blistering start to the season, but these lulls are only to be expected from a team playing at such a high caliber. Jalen Williams will miss this game due to a minor injury and he’s been the major difference for their offense from a facilitating standpoint, averaging a career-high 5.6 assists per game. He has 10-assist nights in two of his last five games, so they’ll certainly be missing his ball movement against a tough Cleveland defense.

The Cavaliers also showed some resolve and resilience on the road against a hot Philadelphia 76ers team, controlling the pace through both games and coming away with the wins. Their perimeter defense did a great job in shutting down both Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe for the Sixers, something they’ll hope to do here against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder guard is known for his ability to draw defenders into foul trouble, however, so Donovan Mitchell will have to be especially disciplined to ensure he remains in the game.

Mitchell has taken his scoring to a new level, if that was even possible, and seems intent on scoring-at-will in situations where either Darius Garland or Evan Mobley are injured. His 29.2 PPG ranks seventh in the NBA, but he’s been far more decisive this season in driving and finishing at the rim. He’s averaging a career-high 5.0-5.9 on free-throws made/attempted, so expect him to be active in the paint once again with his backcourt mate out.

Despite all of this, the Oklahoma City Thunder still rank first-overall in defensive rating (105.4) and allow the fewest average turnovers per game (12), so don’t expect anything to come easy for the Cavs on either end of the floor.

Thunder vs. Cavs Prediction and Pick

The Cleveland Cavs showed great resolve in beating the Philadelphia 76ers without PG Darius Garland, but his services will be greatly missed as they try to keep pace with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are coming into this game following a loss and will be motivated to get the win back on their record, but the short betting line has us thinking the Cavs could offer solid resistance at home if Donovan Mitchell is able to have a big game.

Still, the Cavs haven’t been good at covering the spread in general and have particularly struggled to do so at home this season. While they have a moderate chance to win this game outright, we’re going to roll with the Oklahoma City to barely cover the spread as they should pull away towards the end of the game.

Final Thunder-Cavs Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 (-108); UNDER 231.5 (-105)

The post Thunder vs. Cavs MLK Day 2026 prediction, odds, pick appeared first on ClutchPoints.