talkSPORT betting tips – Best NFL bets and expert advice for Falcons @ Buccaneers

Week 15’s Thursday Night Football brings a divisional rivalry to Raymond James Stadium, as Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Atlanta Falcons in a clash with plenty at stake.

The Bucs lost their lead in the NFC South in Week 14, but are still clinging onto top spot on a third-level tiebreaker.

Todd Bowles’ team needs to re-establish momentum quickly after losing four of their last five games and ahead of two looming battles with the Carolina Panthers.

Atlanta arrives in Florida with a 4-9 record and their head coach reportedly on the hot seat.

Last Sunday’s home loss to the Seattle Seahawks officially eliminated the Falcons from playoff contention and all they can now do is play the role of spoiler.

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Falcons @ Buccaneers tips

• Bijan Robinson – Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts @ 9/10
• Baker Mayfield – Under 223.5 Passing Yards @ 17/20 
• Under 45.5 Total Points @ 4/5
• Spotlight Bet Builder – 7/2

Falcons leaning on the ground game

The Falcons are expected to lean heavily on their rushing duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who combined for 120 yards against the Seahawks.

Robinson has averaged 20 carries across his last four games and with Tampa Bay ranking mid-pack against the run, expect Atlanta to keep pounding the ball.

The Falcons’ passing game is hampered further by injuries to Drake London (doubtful) and Kyle Pitts (limited), making Robinson’s workload the safest angle for bettors.

Mayfield’s MVP play a distant memory

The Buccaneers may not look or feel like a playoff team after losing to rookie QB Tyler Shough and the hapless New Orleans Saints 24-20 on Sunday at home.

Their defense has been unable to stop big plays since their Week 9 bye and the early-season MVP-calibre play of Baker Mayfield is now a distant memory.

The Bucs quarterback has struggled to move the chains in recent weeks, although he has not been helped by a number of drops and route errors from his receivers.

Mayfield was averaging 243.5 passing yards per game across the Bucs’ first nine games, but that has dipped to 132.5 over their last four, including one game against the Rams when he missed the second half because of a sprained throwing shoulder.

Points at a premium in Florida

Tampa Bay cannot be trusted to put up a lot of points against a Falcons defense that ranks in the top 10 against the pass.

Both teams could target the ground game for their offensive gains on Thursday with Atlanta among the 12 best rushing teams in the league but with a pretty porous run defence. 

Kirk Cousins, standing in for sidelined starter Michael Penix Jr, threw two interceptions in last week’s 37-9 loss to Seattle.

The Falcons are averaging just under 17 points per game when he starts while the Bucs have not scored more than 20 points in any of their last three games.

With both teams battling injuries and lacking offensive consistency, Thursday night sets up as a grind. The Falcons’ run-heavy approach will chew clock, while the Bucs’ red-zone inefficiency could keep scoring down.

Under 45.5 points is the standout play.

All odds correct at time of writing.

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All odds correct at time of writing

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