Rams’ odds for NFC No. 1 seed with 2 weeks left in regular season

The Los Angeles Rams have clinched a playoff spot, but they have higher ambitions. Despite it’s recent reputation as a playoff team killer, the number one seed in each conference is still highly coveted. When used properly, a bye week before the playoffs is a godsend.

The Rams seemed like they were on track to earn that first seed in the NFC this season. A first-round bye was in the cards for this rejuvenated team. However, their chances of earning the first seed has plummeted after the Rams lost in Week 16 to the Seattle Seahawks.

Now, Los Angeles’ path to the first seed looks a lot murkier than before. What do the top playoff prediction models (The Athletic, DVOA, and ESPN) have to say about LA’s chances at the first seed?

Rams’ first-round bye odds dropped after Week 16

Before Week 16, the Rams looked like they were going to cruise to the first seed in the NFC. Their main competition for that top spot was the Seahawks and the Bears, with the 49ers having an outside shot. Securing a win over the Seahawks would have likely guaranteed their first-round bye.

However, the Rams experienced the worst-case scenario in Week 16. First off, they lost to the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football, tying the series and awarding the Seahawks the first seed immediately. Then, the Bears won against the Packers on Sunday, further lowering their chances.

Now, all three models have more or less similar predictions on the Rams’ first-seed odds this postseason. The Athletic’s playoff model has the Rams winning the NFC 12% of the time. ESPN and FTN’s DVOA have a slightly similar projection, giving LA a 13% chance of earning that first-seed bye.

Rams’ path to a first-round bye

How do the Rams overcome the odds and win the first seed? Well, the first and most important criteria is to win the rest of their schedule. Los Angeles faces the Atlanta Falcons this week, then the Arizona Cardinals the following week. On paper, this should be a nice, easy schedule for Atlanta to win.

The next piece of the puzzle is a little complicated. Should the Seahawks win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, the Rams need the Bears to win in Week 17 over the 49ers. Then, the 49ers have to win against the Seahawks in Week 18, and the Bears have to lose to the Detroit Lions in that week as well. If this scenario happens, the Rams earn the coveted first seed.

Should the Panthers win this week, though, everything starts to get a little messy. Should the 49ers win in Week 17, the Rams need San Francisco to win over the Seahawks as well to win the first seed in the NFC. However, if the Bears win over SF this week, a Lions win in Week 18 gives the Rams the first seed.

In short, the Rams do not control their destiny at all this season. Their part of the job is easy enough, but the convoluted chain of events that needs to occur might be a little too much for the Rams to overcome. There’s a lot of moving parts that seem likely individually, but the odds of them all happening seem a little tough.

What really drives down LA’s chances here are both the Seahawks’ Week 17 game and the Week 18 tilt between the Bears and Lions. The Seahawks should be clear favorites in Week 17, which sets off the chain reaction that starts with the Bears upsetting the Niners. Then, the Bears now have to be on the receiving end of an upset the following week, losing to a Lions squad that got rocked by Max Brosmer and the Vikings this week.

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