Premier League top scorer odds 2025/26: Erling Haaland already has one hand on Golden Boot

We are into the second half of the season and Erling Haaland is very much in pole position to be this year’s Premier League top scorer.

The top flight of English football is home to some of the best attacking players in the world, but Man City’s big Norwegian is once again in a class of his own this season.

Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and several other teams spent heavily on new strikers in the summer and all of them have taken some time to find their feet. It has also been a poor season for last season’s Golden Boot winner, Mo Salah.

Instead, it is Brentford’s Igor Thiago and Haaland’s new teammate Antoine Semenyo (who reached double figures for Bournemouth before his January switch) who are the closest to catching Pep Guardiola’s goal machine.

Latest Premier League top scorers & odds

As we can see from these latest odds taken in January, everyone bar Haaland is priced at 10/1 or greater – with only Thiago having scored more than ten times. Barring a long-term injury, no one is catching him.

With this in mind, talkSPORT BET (and others) have set up a new market – Premier League top scorer without Haaland. This is looking slightly more difficult to call, as several sharpshooters are on similar tallies at time of writing. We’ve broken down some of the contenders here.

Latest Premier League top scorer WITHOUT Haaland odds

*Goal tallies and odds last updated on 23rd January. Odds are subject to change.

Premier League top scorer WITHOUT Haaland odds – frontrunners

Below are the main candidates to finish second behind Haaland, assuming he stays fit and continues firing.

Remember this market will also pay out in the event that someone remarkably surges ahead and wins the Golden Boot. As long as your chosen player finishes immediately after Haaland in the scoring charts, you’re a winner!

Igor Thiago – 1/5

• Goals: 16
• xG: 12.51
• Starts (sub appearances): 21 (1)
• Minutes per goal: 115.06
• Total shots: 52

No Premier League team will have lost more goals over the summer than Brentford, with Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa both moving on. A lot of responsibility was therefore placed on Brazilian Igor Thiago, who joined from Club Brugge in the summer of 2024 but made just eight Premier League appearances while the French-born pair were combining for nearly 40 goals.

This season, he is the main man, and has been a godsend for rookie manager Keith Andrews – outscoring everyone else in the league so far apart from Erling Haaland. The Bees had been tipped to struggle this season given all the departures, but are currently pushing for Europe.

It would be fair to say Thiago has been streaky – he scored five goals in three days as Brentford beat Everton and Sunderland in early January and also managed another five in three games in November.

Back Igor Thiago to continue scoring and finish second only to Haaland in the scoring charts at 1/5 with talkSPORT BET

Antoine Semenyo – 12/1

• Goals: 10
• xG: 7.08
• Starts (sub appearances): 21 (0)
• Minutes per goal: 188.8
• Total shots: 50

Antoine Semenyo’s ten goals for Bournemouth convinced Man City to stump up £65m to secure his services in January. The Ghana international shone on opening night, scoring an excellent brace at Anfield, before bagging four more in the following six games.

Unlike most Africans playing in the Premier League, Semenyo wasn’t involved in the African Cup of Nations at the turn of year – as Ghana failed to qualify. This has enabled Guardiola to integrate him into the lineup very quickly and he has already made his first starts at the Etihad.

Being at a huge club surrounded by world class talent may now count against Semenyo in this market, as he may find himself in a rotation of attacking players – rather than being the main man.

Tip Antoine Semenyo to finish immediately after Erling Haaland in the scoring charts at 12/1 with bet365

Premier League top scorer WITHOUT Haaland – outsiders

With more than two-thirds of the season still to play, there’s plenty of time for someone to hit a ‘purple patch’ and catch up to Erling Haaland and the others named above. Here are three more players who’ve had a good season thus far and could be potential dark horses in this market.

Hugo Ekitike – 16/1

• Goals: 8
• xG: 6.48
• Starts (sub appearances): 14 (5)
• Minutes per goal: 152.75
• Total shots: 45

Hugo Ekitike took little time to settle in at Anfield, having arrived from Eintracht Frankfurt for around £79m. The Frenchman scored on his Premier League debut against Bournemouth and has been Liverpool’s most consistent goal-getter with the even-more-expensive Alexander Isak struggling prior to his injury, and with Mo Salah seemingly on his way out of Anfield.

Five of Ekitike’s eight league goals game in a three-game purple patch in December – with braces against Leeds and Brighton, and the eventual winner at Tottenham.

Tip Hugo Ekitike to finish as the Premier League’s top scorer WITHOUT Haaland at 16/1 with William Hill

Dominic Calvert-Lewin – 33/1

• Goals: 9
• xG: 8.01
• Starts (sub appearances): 15 (5)
• Minutes per goal: 155.66
• Total shots: 41

No striker in the top flight, however, has offered quite the same return on investment as Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who didn’t cost Leeds a penny! DCL was available on a free in the summer and has eventually won the battle to become their starting number nine.

He’s bagged nine goals in 15 starts, with seven of these coming in the last six games of the year. If he can keep it going into 2026, he could match his best-ever Premier League tally of 16 back in the 2020/21 season. He will also be hard for England manager Thomas Tuchel to ignore when it comes to selecting his World Cup squad!

Go for Dominic Calvert-Lewin to continue his fine form and finish as top scorer behind Haaland at 33/1 with William Hill

Nick Woltemade – 33/1

• Goals: 7
• xG: 6.24
• Starts (sub appearances): 17 (2)
• Minutes per goal: 189.29
• Total shots: 29

Having missed out on other transfer targets in the striking department, Newcastle eventually stumped up a club record fee for 6ft 6in Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart. The German arrived to relatively little fanfare amid the protracted Alexander Isak saga, but he quickly won the locals over – scoring three times in his first four Premier League games, plus one in the Champions League.

Eyebrows were raised at the fee, which was reportedly in the £70-75m region, given the 23-year-old had only recently emerged as a Bundesliga regular – scoring 12 of his 14 goals in the German top flight last season.

Early signs suggest, however, that he is a really good fit in Eddie Howe’s team having been given plenty of service so far. His tally now stands at seven, which includes a brace against Chelsea just before Christmas.

Tip Nick Woltemade to continue scoring and finish next in the charts after Haaland at 33/1 with talkSPORT BET

Phil Foden – 33/1

• Goals: 7
• xG: 4.65
• Starts (sub appearances): 19 (1)
• Minutes per goal: 230.29
• Total shots: 44

Much like Manchester City in general, 2024/25 was a ‘down’ season for Phil Foden, who scored just seven times in 28 league outings – this, following his Premier League player of the season in which he scored 19 goals (and contributed eight assists).

Foden has bounced back this time around, matching his seven-goal tally of last season by mid-January. Those backing him to finish near Haaland in terms of goals, however, should note that Foden – as one of the Norwegian’s main suppliers – will also be setting up a chunk of his goals too!

Back Phil Foden to join his teammate Haaland at the top of the scoring charts at 33/1 with bet365

Which players have scored the most Premier League goals over the last three seasons?

Erling Haaland has been the most consistent goal-getter in the last three seasons, netting a total of 85 strikes in that time. He enjoyed a record-breaking campaign in 2022/23, beating opposition goalkeepers on 36 occasions for Manchester City. He tends to hit the ground running: in each of the last three years, Haaland has scored at least eight goals in his first six appearances.

Mohamed Salah is second in the standings over a three-year period with 66 goals. Twenty-nine of those efforts came in 2024/25, when the Liverpool legend enjoyed a purple patch in winter: between the start of December and early January, he scored eight goals in seven matches to move clear of the competition. 

Third place in this particular category is claimed by Alexander Isak, who has found the back of the net 54 times since 2022/23. Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa is fourth with 50 goals in the last three campaigns. 

Premier League top scorers from the last three seasons

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FAQs about the 2025/26 Premier League top scorer race

1. Which teams are expected to compete for the Premier League title?

Arsenal are the favourites to win the Premier League title this season after opening up a seven-point lead in the early weeks of 2026.

The Gunners will be hoping this is finally their year after three consecutive seasons as runners-up. They are once again the toughest team to score against, having only conceded 14 in 22 games, and have no shortage of attacking options – with Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyökeres joining in the summer to boost their depth.

Manchester City will aim to keep the pressure on Mikel Arteta’s side after seeing their streak of four straight titles ended last season. While they do have the league’s most deadly striker, Pep Guardiola’s team still aren’t quite as consistent as their previous juggernaut teams.

2. Which teams are expected to compete for the Champions League places in the Premier League?

Aside from Arsenal, the bookies expect Manchester City, Liverpool and – following their surge up the table – Aston Villa to be in next season’s Champions League. Chelsea and Manchester United have both recently changed managers but are also within striking distance of the top four.

Newcastle are in UEFA’s top competition for a second time in three seasons, and could secure a top eight finish in the league phase. They’ve had an inconsistent domestic season but are also in the race after a good start to the new year.

3. Which teams are expected to be fighting against relegation from the Premier League this season?

In both of the last two seasons, the three promoted clubs have gone straight back down to the Championship but that won’t be happening this time around. Sunderland have had an excellent season and are in the top half at the time of writing. Leeds have also given themselves a great chance of surviving after picking up 25 points in their first 22 games.

Currently, Wolves, Burnley and West Ham are the three who look like they’ll be dropping down to the Championship. All three are cut adrift and Wolves are still in the single digits points-wise.

4. How can injuries, suspensions and managers rotating their teams affect the top scorer race?

Injuries, suspensions and rotation can have a huge effect on the outcome of a top scorer race. Their uncertain impact means every pre-season prediction is partly a guessing game.

Just last season, Erling Haaland’s bid for the award was derailed when he picked up an injury in April which kept him out for several weeks. Harry Kane was in the mix for the top scorer prize in 2018/19, only to suffer an ankle problem in April which allowed others to overtake him.

Eric Cantona was on course to challenge for the Golden Boot in 1994/95. In January of that season, he was sent off for kung-fu kicking a Crystal Palace supporter which saw him banned for the rest of the campaign, thus ruling him out of the race.

On the other hand, Luis Suárez missed six games of the 2013/14 campaign through suspension but still finished as top scorer, finding the back of the net 31 times for Liverpool.

Rotation can also make things more difficult for a player aiming to finish as top scorer. It is much better to belong to a team where you are virtually guaranteed 38 starts if fit, rather than playing for a club which has alternative options in attack.

Read more about the 2025/26 football season

• Best football betting sites
• Premier League winner odds and predictions
• Premier League relegation odds and predictions
• Championship promotion odds and predictions

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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