Premier League relegation odds 2025/26: Can West Ham haul themselves out?

Jan 30, 2026 - 16:00

With under half of the season to go, two teams look destined for Premier League relegation, but the battle to avoid finishing alongside them in the bottom three is heating up.

Wolves’ eight-year stay in the top flight looks as though it’ll be coming to an end very soon as they’re still in the single figures in terms of points. Burnley, similarly, don’t look as though they’ll be able to break out of their recent yo-yo’ing pattern and are likely to be relegated in all three of their most recent Premier League campaigns.

This season should buck the recent trend of seeing all three promoted clubs going straight back down. Sunderland have been outstanding so far and have been in the top half for most of the season. Leeds have also competed well, and are currently above the bottom three.

With fifteen games to go, here is our analysis of the current Premier League relegation odds and the sides involved.

Latest Premier League relegation odds

Here are the odds from our recommended football bookies:

Wolverhampton Wanderers – 1/66 with bet365
Burnley – 1/20 with AK Bets
West Ham United – 4/9 with William Hill
Nottingham Forest – 7/1 with Betway
Leeds United – 7/1 with Sky Bet
Crystal Palace – 7/1 talkSPORT BET
Tottenham Hotspur – 14/1 with Paddy Power
Bournemouth – 33/1 with Midnite
Manchester City – 40/1 with BetVictor
Sunderland – 66/1 with BetMGM
Everton – 100/1 with Betfred
Fulham – 125/1 with Tote
Brighton & Hove Albion – 150/1 with Paddy Power
Brentford – 150/1 with William Hill
Manchester United – 250/1 with bet365
Newcastle United – 250/1 William Hill
Liverpool – 500/1 with Paddy Power
Chelsea – 1000/1 with AK Bets
Aston Villa – 1000/1 with Betfred
Arsenal – 4500/1 with BetMGM

*Odds are subject to change (Updated on 30th January)

Teams looking doomed for Premier League relegation

According to the bookies, and the league table at time of writing, Wolves and Burnley can start preparing for life in the Championship. Both have an mountain to climb just to catch the back of the pack.

Wolves have been cut adrift all season and it took them 20 games to finally record a win. Despite an improved run of results, in which they’ve picked up three draws as well as that win, they’re stuck on a mere eight points for the season. They’ll need four more to avoid becoming the worst ever Premier League side – that was Derby County back in 2007/08, who finished with just 11 points.

Burnley had put three wins on the board by the end of October, but haven’t won since, and now find themselves ten points away from safety. Therefore, they’d have to at least double their win tally just to catch up to Nottingham Forest. They are, however, also showing signs of improvement in recent games – taking points off of Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham.

Teams in danger of Premier League relegation

With two of the three relegation spots seemingly sorted, the main battle within the relegation battle is to simply avoid being on the wrong side of the dotted line come the end of May.

We’ve broken down the teams in the thick of that fight here:

West Ham United – 4/9

Things looked bleak for West Ham and manager Nuno Espírito Santo after the Hammers kicked off 2026 with disastrous defeats to Wolves and Forest – the former giving the Black Country side their one and only league win of the season to date, the latter being the dictionary definition of a six-pointer.

Back-to-back wins at Tottenham and at home to Sunderland have, however, given them a fighting chance of hauling themselves out of the mire. They’ll need to keep it going as that loss to Forest is still haunting them – five points separates the two. West Ham would, of course, be one point ahead had they held on to their lead in that game.

They now face back-to-back away trips to Chelsea and Burnley – the latter will be a must-win. Looking ahead to their run-in, they finish at home to Leeds, which could be massive if the Yorkshire side aren’t mathematically safe by then.

Take up odds of 4/9 on West Ham going down with William Hill

Nottingham Forest – 7/1

Nottingham Forest are already on their third manager of the season after Ange Postecoglu failed to get a so-called “new manager bounce” following his appointment. The Aussie lasted just 39 days, having replaced Nuno Espírito Santo – who had a rather public falling out with owner Evangelos Marinakis.

Experienced firefighter Sean Dyche has now been in charge for 15 Premier League games, plus several more in cup competitions, and has helped the team rediscover some of the defensive solidity that carried them to the European places last season – they’ve kept clean sheets in both of their most recent two league outings.

Under Dyche, Forest have picked up 20 points – an average of well over a point a game, which is usually more than enough to survive if extrapolated over a whole season.

It is worth noting, however, that they are still involved in the Europa League, having secured a playoff place. Keeping themselves fresh for domestic affairs will be the priority, but punters should keep an eye on the number of extra games Forest may need to play in the coming months compared to their closest rivals.

Tip the tricky trees to be chopped down this season at 7/1 with Betway

Leeds United – 7/1

Before a ball had even been kicked, speculation was mounting that Leeds might part ways with manager Daniel Farke due to the German’s poor top flight record. Those rumours resurfaced after the Yorkshire club struggled throughout October and November.

A midweek win over Chelsea, however, kickstarted a seven-game unbeaten run through December and early January. With a better squad, and more money to spend than at previous club Norwich, Farkeball is looking better-suited and more durable in the Premier League.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been a godsend since arriving on a free from Everton in the summer. He’s scored nine times in total, including a run of having netted at least once in each of the last six games of 2025.

Their next two games, both at home, could reveal plenty as to whether Leeds will be able to keep West Ham and others at arm’s length. They face league leaders Arsenal and then Forest in a pivotal Friday Night Football matchup.

As mentioned earlier, their final game is at West Ham’s London Stadium. They won’t want that to become a final day showdown!

Go for Leeds to be relegated at 7/1 with Sky Bet

Crystal Palace – 7/1

Crystal Palace are a team in free-fall having gone eight without a win in the Premier League and 11 without a win in all competitions – a run which includes being on the wrong end of debatably the biggest FA Cup shock of all time against Macclesfield.

Manager Oliver Glasner recently revealed he’ll be leaving at the end of the season, following the high-profile departures of Eberechi Eze in the summer and now Marc Guéhi in the January window. Striker Jean-Philippe Mateta could also leave before the deadline.

They head to the City Ground, Nottingham, this weekend before facing Brighton in their local derby, and then Burnley and Wolves come to Selhurst Park. It’s a crucial month for the Eagles, who surely must arrest their slide soon.

Tip Crystal Palace to fall through the Premier League trap door at 7/1 with talkSPORT BET

My Premier League relegation betting tips

Here are three Premier League relegation-themed betting tips to consider for the remainder of the campaign.

Wolves to finish bottom – 1/3

Wolves have been in a sorry state for most of the season and despite finally putting a win on the board, they’ll need to suddenly string several together to catch up to Burnley in 19th. They’re also the lowest scorers in the league with just fifteen goals.

Rob Edwards’ team have looked well short of quality and confidence and are already only a few weeks away from being confirmed as relegated.

Tip Wolves to finish bottom at 1/3 with Sky Bet

Wolves/Burnley/West Ham relegation treble – 8/13

There are numerous potential outcomes in the relegation treble market, but Wolves-Burnley-West Ham is the odds-on combination. Wolves are gone and Burnley are also looking doomed.

West Ham, despite their recent victories, have looked like the third worst side this season and still have a sizeable deficit to recover. Forest and Leeds have been achieving big, important results more regularly too.

Choose Burnley, West Ham and Wolves to go down at 8/13 with talkSPORT BET

Sunderland to finish in the bottom half – 4/9 with William Hill

While not a relegation market per se, the “to stay up” market isn’t offering great value at the moment with eveyone above the danger zone having at least a five-point cushion.

Looking elsewhere, I can see Sunderland dropping slightly from their lofty position and finishing 11th or lower. The Black Cats have actually only scored 24 goals in 23 games – fewer than everyone bar Wolves, Forest and Palace.

Their back line has been superb for a newly-promoted side – only the top three and Chelsea have conceded fewer goals. In a league with so much world class talent, however, they will likely find it tough to keep shutting teams out so regularly. It’s much easier to suddenly start conceding more goals than to suddenly start scoring more too!

Tip Sunderland to finish in the bottom half at 4/9 with William Hill

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Who suffered relegation from the Premier League last season?

For the second season in a row, the three promoted clubs were relegated back to the Championship in 2024/25.

Southampton – play-off winners the previous year – struggled from start to finish. Their tally of 12 points was just enough for them to avoid becoming the worst team in Premier League history, but that was the only positive they could take from a dismal campaign. A lack of pragmatism was a major issue under Russell Martin, but Southampton were poor after his sacking too.

Leicester City were dour but competitive under Steve Cooper, but the former Nottingham Forest boss never won over the club’s fans. His successor Ruud van Nistelrooy was a disaster, with Leicester going nine consecutive home games without even scoring a goal. They never really looked like surviving after Christmas.

Ipswich Town were the most competitive member of the trio, but it was always going to take a monumental effort for Kieran McKenna to keep them up. Ipswich were playing in League One two seasons earlier, so a lack of quality at the very highest level was forgivable. The Tractor Boys are looking to bounce back in 2025/26.

How previous Premier League relegation battles have played out

Even today, Premier League managers routinely reference “40 points” as their principal target at the beginning of a season. Traditionally that was seen as the amount of points required to stay in the division – the safety threshold, if you will – but, in recent years, numerous teams have survived without accumulating that many.

In each of the last nine campaigns, 35 points would have been sufficient. In three of those seasons, a mere 30 points would have seen a team finish above the dreaded dotted line. Meanwhile, 40 points was what 14th-placed West Ham got in 2022/23.

Being bottom at Christmas is usually fatal for a team’s survival ambitions. In 28 out of the 32 Premier League seasons, the side propping up the table on December 25 has gone on to finish in the drop zone. No one wants to be bottom of the standings when the turkey is served.

The greatest escapes in Premier League history

While no one wants their team to be in the bottom three in March or April, history shows that it pays to keep fighting until relegation is mathematically confirmed. Down the years, several Premier League sides have pulled off escape acts that would have impressed Harry Houdini.

In 2004/05, West Bromwich Albion were the first team in Premier League history to avoid relegation having been bottom at Christmas. After winning just one of their first 23 matches, and only two of their first 27, optimism was in short supply at The Hawthorns. But Bryan Robson’s men rallied late on, taking a respectable 16 points from the last 33 on offer to keep their heads above water.

Sunderland fans had a sinking feeling for much of the 2013/14 season. A dismal start saw Paolo Di Canio fired in September, and it looked like Gus Poyet would take the team down to the Championship. But Sunderland upset the relegation odds Premier League late on, drawing 2-2 with Manchester City and then winning four games in a row (including one against José Mourinho’s Chelsea) to overturn a seven-point deficit.

Leicester City stunned the football world when they won the title in 2015/16, but they were very nearly relegated the year before. Nigel Pearson’s team found themselves six points adrift of safety at the start of April, but a thrilling run of seven wins in their final nine fixtures saw them finish all the way up in 14th.

Which teams in this year’s Premier League have been relegated most often?

Norwich City hold the unwanted record of being the most relegated team in Premier League history, having gone down six times since 1992/93. They are followed by West Brom and Leicester on five demotions apiece.

None of that trio are in the top flight this season, though, which means Burnley and Sunderland (four each) have suffered the most relegations of the current top 20. A glance at the Premier League relegation betting odds shows that the bookmakers would not be surprised if both clubs joined West Brom and Leicester on five relegations in 2025/26.

Crystal Palace and Fulham comfortably finished in mid-table last time out but, with three relegations to their name, neither London side is immune to the drop. Nottingham Forest, European qualifiers in 2024/25, have also dropped out of the Premier League on three occasions.

Elsewhere, Leeds, Manchester City, Newcastle United, West Ham and Wolves have all been relegated twice in the past 32 years. Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford have never been relegated from the Premier League, with the first six of those teams the only ever-presents.

FAQs about the 2025/26 Premier League season

1. What will be the key fixtures to look out for in this season’s relegation battle?

The biggest games down the bottom in the next month will see West Ham head to Burnley, and they simply can’t afford another defeat to a fellow struggler.

Leeds host Forest in early February, a week after Forest have faced Palace at the City Ground. These three are the trio West Ham are looking to catch, so they’ll be paying close attention to the way in which these play out.

Palace, as mentioned earlier, have several winnable games in February but for a team who haven’t won in two months, none of them are a ‘given’. They head down to Sussex to face Brighton after their trip to Forest, then they welcome Burnley and Wolves to Selhurst Park.

Looking ahead to the end of the season – you’d have to circle that West Ham v Leeds game on the final day as a potential ‘cup final’ for survival.

2. How often do struggling teams benefit from a “new manager bounce”?

It is common for struggling Premier League sides to change their manager in a bid to turn things around. A positive upturn in form following the appointment of a new boss is often called the “new manager bounce”. But the evidence on its success as a strategy is mixed.

There have certainly been occasions when employing a new head coach has brought about a turnaround in fortunes. It did not take long for Roy Hodgson to work his magic at West Brom in 2010/11. Paul Clement rescued Swansea City after being appointed midway through the 2016/17 campaign. Just last season, David Moyes had a near-instant impact after replacing Sean Dyche at Everton.

Yet it does not always work. Last season also saw Leicester go backwards under Ruud van Nistelrooy following the dismissal of Steve Cooper. Having got rid of Mick McCarthy, Wolves got worse under Terry Connor in 2011/12. Sunderland experienced the same misfortune in 2002/03, when neither Howard Wilkinson nor McCarthy could improve results sufficiently to keep them up.

Sometimes, sticking with a manager pays dividends. Leicester kept faith in Nigel Pearson in 2014/15 and were rewarded with a remarkable late rally which saw them snatch survival from the jaws of relegation. On other occasions, relegation-threatened clubs have been mistaken to back a struggling manager – think Avram Grant at West Ham in 2009/10.

In conclusion, there is no hard-and-fast rule on whether or not it is beneficial to change your manager in a relegation battle.

3. How quickly can a team be drawn into the relegation battle?

Very quickly, if they are not careful. It does not take much for a Premier League team to slide down the standings and suddenly find themselves embroiled in a fight for their top-tier status.

Promoted from the Championship via the play-offs, Hull City carried that momentum into the Premier League in 2008/09. Their performance in the early part of the season was superb and they sat sixth in the middle of December, but their form completely collapsed thereafter. With just one win in their last 22 matches, Phil Brown’s team survived by the skin of their teeth.

Leicester were not so lucky in 2022/23. They beat Tottenham 4-1 in February to move into 13th place with the top half in their sights. But Leicester went on to lose eight of their next nine games to plummet down the table and, despite beating West Ham 2-1 on the final day, they were relegated.

It is never advisable to celebrate survival before it is 100 percent guaranteed. After beating Ipswich 3-1 on 1st May 1993, Crystal Palace players did a lap of honour at Selhurst Park having moved eight points clear of trouble. But the Eagles went on to lose their last two games, and an extraordinary sequence of three wins in seven days saw Oldham Athletic overtake them to send Palace down.

4. How much of an impact can injuries and suspensions have in terms of shaking up the relegation battle?

Luck is a big factor in every sport and football is no exception. Injuries and suspensions can be the difference between survival and relegation, particularly for smaller clubs in the division who tend to have less strength in depth.

When they went down in 2021/22, Leeds had to make do without top scorer Patrick Bamford, midfield talisman Kalvin Phillips and defensive leader Liam Cooper for a large chunk of the campaign. Those absences contributed massively to their failure to stay up.

Had they kept more players fit, Reading might have survived in 2007/08. Unfortunately for the 18th-placed Royals, their players missed a cumulative 400 days more to injury than Fulham, who finished 17th.

However, a busy treatment room does not necessarily condemn a struggling side to relegation. Charles N’Zogbia, Christian Benteke, Fabian Delph and Jores Okore were all sidelined for significant periods in 2013/14, but Aston Villa still did enough to retain their Premier League place.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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