Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens odds, predictions, and betting tips – The AFC North All Comes Down to This

The Ravens are coming off a somewhat-surprising win over the Green Bay Packers on the road, whereas the Steelers, without wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, lost to the Cleveland Browns on the road, 13-6. Had the Steelers won that game, this one would’ve been meaningless.

Let’s check out this massive edition of the NFL in more detail below. 

Steelers vs Ravens best bets

• Jaylen Warren 2+ Receptions – 17/20 with BetMGM
• Pat Freiermuth Over 31.5 Receiving Yards – 17/20 with BetMGM
• Derrick Henry Under 3.5 Receiving Yards – 22/25 with BetMGM

The biggest question mark heading into this game is what this Steelers offence will look like. Last week, in the first of a two-game suspension for Metcalf, it looked abysmal. Rodgers completed just 21 of 39 passes for 168 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt.

He completed just one pass of 20-plus yards, and even when kept clean in the pocket, he completed 59.4% of his throws. This offence needs to adapt to life with Metcalf for this game, or else they’ll be sent home and lose the AFC North.

As is, their offence ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per game with 301.3. 

On the other side, the Ravens have a question mark, too: What version of Lamar Jackson will we get? He practised on Wednesday, so it appears he’ll be good to go for this game.

However, over his last three full games, he’s completed 55.7% of his passes for 615 yards, three touchdowns, three picks, and has run 15 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. I

It appears Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt will be back for this game, too, which should help slow Jackson down.

Will they stick to the game plan of last week and just feed running back Derrick Henry over and over again? Sure, Jackson is the more “appealing” quarterback name-wise in this matchup, but he really hasn’t played all too well lately.

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Steelers vs Ravens preview

The Steelers are underdogs in this matchup, and after what Henry did last week, understandably so. However, with Jackson back in the lineup, I’m not certain we’ll see that same level of usage for Henry, who had 36 carries for 216 yards and four touchdowns. He is an older running back, too, who turns 32 on the day of this game. 

While the Steelers’ offence was atrocious last week, the Ravens’ pass defence is much more forgiving. The Browns allow just 163.8 passing yards per game (2nd), whereas the Ravens give up 245.3 (29th). 

In their last matchup, Rodgers threw for 284 yards and a touchdown. Of course, he did have Metcalf at his disposal, who went for 148 yards, but either way, this is still a much more beatable defence. 

I expect a lower-scoring game than the first time around in Week 14, which ended with a 27-22 Steelers win. 

With that, I’ll take the home team plus the points.

Steelers vs Ravens tips

Find the latest odds for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

I understand the Ravens being favourites based on last week’s results and the Steelers being without Metcalf, but I would’ve expected a spread closer to a point rather than 3.5.

Even with a Ravens win, the 3.5 still allows the Steelers to cover in the event of a last-second Ravens field goal to win the game.

Jaylen Warren 2+ Receptions

While Warren was catchless last week against the Browns, he’s caught two passes or more in all but two games this season. In fact, whenever he catches passes at all, he’s had two or more. In the two games he fell short, which were Week 12 and 17, he had zero catches. 

In the last game against the Ravens, he caught three passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. 

Without Metcalf in the lineup, the Steelers need to utilise their running backs more between Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Warren is averaging 7.5 yards per target and 4.5 yards per carry and has proven to be a reliable pass-catching threat.

He needs to be used more against a Ravens defence that allows 5.06 receptions per game to the position, fourth-most in the NFL.

Back Jaylen Warren to catch 2 passes or more against the Ravens at 17/20 with BetMGM

Pat Freiermuth Over 31.5 Receiving Yards

This line opened at 36.5, and while I didn’t feel all too great about it, I feel much better about the “over” at 31.5. 

In this game, Freiermuth will go up against a Ravens defence that ranked 23rd in yards allowed per game to tight ends at 46.12. 

However, there are two things to remember: Not only is Metcalf out, but fellow tight end Darnell Washington is out for the season after breaking his arm last week. 

In situations where both players are off the field, Freiermuth has a 14.3% target share, which leads the position on the Steelers. He’s caught three of six passes for 63 yards, and his 10.5 yards per target is second on the team. 

Another Steelers tight end, Jonnu Smith, could be factored in more, but again, in situations where Metcalf and Washington aren’t on the field, Freiermuth runs a route on 80.4% of Rodgers’ dropback, whereas Smith runs a route just 32.6% of the time. 

He’ll be the go-to tight end in the passing game.

Back Pat Freiermuth to have 32 receiving yards or more against the Ravens at 17/20 with BetMGM

Derrick Henry Under 3.5 Receiving Yards

While Henry did catch one pass for eight yards against the Steelers in Week 14, his pass game production is so random that it’s hard to wager on. 

When Jackson is on the field and under centre, Henry has a mere 5.8% target share, catching 14 of 16 passes.

Henry hasn’t caught a pass since the Steelers game, and he’s finished with three receiving yards or fewer in seven games, including six where he didn’t have a catch at all. 

I’ll take the under. 

Tip Derrick Henry to have 3 receiving yards or fewer against the Steelers at 22/25 with BetMGM

Steelers vs Ravens injury report

Below are the key injuries to report ahead of the action.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Out: Darnell Washington (tight end) – broken arm
• Questionable: Calvin Austin (wide receiver) – hamstring; Brandin Echols (cornerback) – groin; James Pierre (cornerback) – calf; Malik Harrison (linebacker) – knee; Isaac Seumalo (guard) – triceps; T.J. Watt (pass rusher) – lung.

Baltimore Ravens

• Out: Teddye Buchanan (linebacker) – ACL
• Questionable: Rashod Bateman (wide receiver) – illness; Taven Bryan (defensive tackle) – knee; Lamar Jackson (quarterback) – back; Charlie Kolar (tight end) – nose; Patrick Ricard (fullback) – ankle; Roquan Smith (linebacker) – hamstring; Ronnie Stanley (offensive tackle) – knee; Kyle Van Noy (pass rusher) – quad; Andrew Vorhees (guard) – foot; Justice Hill (running back) – neck.

Steelers vs Ravens game info

• Date: Monday 5th January
• Time: 1:20am GMT
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Where to watch: Check local listings

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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