Netherlands vs. Japan 2026 World Cup predictions, odds, pick

The 2026 World Cup is here! The three host countries, the United States, Canada, and Mexico, are ready to put on a show in front of the entire world. There is no bigger tournament than the World Cup, and this 2026 classic is anticipated to be one of the biggest ever, with the expansion to 48 teams.

This Sunday, June 14, the Netherlands and Japan will meet in their opening match at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This is going to be one of the bigger games of the group stages between two Top 20 squads. Group F features these two teams, plus Sweden and Tunisia. Tunisia will take on Sweden on Sunday as well.

In 2022, the Netherlands fell to Argentina in the quarter-finals after beating the United States in the Round of 16. With an impressive squad, they are looking to make serious noise once again with an opportunity to get to the Semi-finals. The Netherlands is the 8th-ranked team in the new/updated FIFA World Rankings. Here are the Dutch players to know ahead of their first match.

Japan is ranked 18th in the world. They have a lot of momentum heading into this tournament. The Samurai Blue took down England for the very first time a few months back in March. This also marked the first time England had ever lost to an Asian club side. Japan beat Iceland in May and also beat Scotland before taking down England. They are riding a big win streak and aim to stay hot against a very good and experienced Dutch squad.

Here are the Netherlands-Japan World Cup odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

2026 World Cup Odds: Netherlands-Japan Odds

Netherlands 3-way Moneyline: -105

Japan 3-way Moneyline: +265

Draw: +250

Over 2.5 goals: -110

Under 2.5 goals: -115

Netherlands vs. Japan Preview – Best Bets 

The Netherlands is looking to begin the tournament on a high note. The Dutch will be aggressive early and often with the hopes of scoring 3+ goals. The Japan squad will do everything in its power to make this a low-scoring affair. Japan will be just fine with a 1-0 loss to the Dutch, giving them a chance to still finish second in the group.

Best Bets: 

Both Teams to Score No Draw: +160

Memphis Depay Anytime Goalscorer: +185

Cody Gakpo 1+ assist: +400

Why The Netherlands Will Win

The Netherlands recently dropped from No. 7 to No. 8 in the final World Rankings ahead of the tournament. This will be extra motivation for the club that takes on a good opponent on Sunday. This will be a statement game for them, knowing that they should easily beat Tunisia and Sweden in the coming weeks, giving them an opportunity for nine points and a potential tournament-leading goal difference.

The Dutch will win this game because they will cash in on some of their many chances. The squad didn’t look brilliant in their two exhibition matches ahead of the World Cup, losing to Algeria and barely beating Uzbekistan. However, they created a ton of chances in those two matches, but just did not cash in. This will change on Sunday. They will score at least two goals, giving them enough for three points. The vibes are not where they should be, but playing in the biggest tournament in the world boosts everyone’s energy and morale.

A massive injury note: Japan captain Wataru Endo pulled out of the tournament with a foot injury. It seems he will retire from international play as well, giving the Japanese squad a terrible blow ahead of these games.

Why Japan Will Win

While Endo is out, the squad must do all they can to win without him. The team will do their best to honor his absence on the pitch by playing with pride, but it will be difficult. Japan will try to take advantage of the Netherlands’ slightly off play on the pitch, making things difficult near the net. Japan must limit as many opposing corners as possible. Taking on Virgil van Dijk and his giant head can seriously hurt this squad near the net. The Samurai Blue must take him out of the equation.

Japan is not shy of making a run in this tournament. They have advanced to the Round of 16 four times, including in 2018 and 2022. This is something that we expect at this point. They have the talent to hang around with any team in the world, but must be at their absolute best to have a chance to win. Japan can beat the Dutch, but they must score two goals for that to happen. The odds of them winning 1-0 are very slim (+950 on DK). Japan will be thrilled with a draw.

Ayase Ueda, Koki Ogawa, Junya Ito, Takefusa Kubo, and Daichi Kamada are players to watch on this squad.

Final Netherlands-Japan Prediction & Pick

My final prediction is that the Dutch will go on to win this match 3-1. They will see some chances to find the back of the net in the first half, while clinching the match with a goal in the second half. As mentioned above, this will be one of the better group stage contests. I expect it to be a very good one with both teams scoring.

Final Netherlands-Japan Prediction & Pick: Netherlands ML (-105), Over 2.5 goals (-110)

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