NBA MVP’s 10 best candidates for 2025-2026 season, ranked after Nikola Jokic’s injury

Nikola Jokic was likely going to win his fourth NBA MVP award during the 2025-26 season, which would have surpassed Larry Bird and Magic Johnson and tied him with LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain. Now Jokic’s MVP chances are all but done after hyperextending his knee just before the new year. Jokic is out at least four weeks, and he’d have to rush back and play every game the rest of the year to meet the league’s 65-game minimum for post-season accolades. It’s not going to happen.

Jokic won’t be the only MVP candidate knocked out by failing to meet the 65-game rule. Giannis Antetokounmpo can only miss three more games, Victor Wembanyama can only miss five more games, and Steph Curry can only miss eight more games. The greatest ability is availability.

The NBA MVP official ballot only has spots for five names, but we like to extend it to 10 players instead. Here’s how we’d rank the 2026 NBA MVP candidates as the league flips the calendar to the new year. This list doesn’t include Jokic because he’s likely to be ineligible to win the award.

10. Donovan Mitchell, G, Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs entered this season with NBA Finals-or-bust expectations, and it sure seems like they’re going to bust. It hasn’t been Mitchell’s fault. The superstar guard is scoring an absurd 41.2 points per 100 possessions, a new career-high and sixth-best in the league, on outstanding 62.6 percent true shooting. Mitchell isn’t a plus defender and Cleveland is unlikely to win enough games for him to get serious consideration for this award, but it’s ridiculous that he’s been a more efficient scorer than Victor Wembanyama this season despite being a foot-and-a-half shorter. He earns the last nod on this list over Jaylen Brown and Jamal Murray, who are both having All-NBA caliber seasons, but Mitchell has been just a smidge better.

9. Alperen Sengun, C, Houston Rockets: The Rockets enter the new year as something like the fifth most-likely team to win the championship. This spot comes down to Kevin Durant vs. Alperen Sengun, and while the advanced numbers favor Durant, I’m going with Sengun for carrying a bigger burden this season. Sengun mixes scoring, playmaking, and rebounding at a high level, and he’s the man in the middle for a Houston defense that will definitely finish top-10 and could finish top-5. The 23-year-old Turk is averaging 31.8 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per 100 possessions at the center Houston’s super physical contender. He still needs to improve as a shooter to become more efficient, but Sengun has a good shot at All-NBA this year despite that.

8. Anthony Edwards, G, Minnesota Timberwolves: The advanced stats don’t love Edwards’ season as he doesn’t even crack the top-25 of EPM so far, but he’s surging as a scorer lately for a Wolves team that should remain a contender all year. Edwards’ assist and rebounding numbers are down, but his scoring efficiency is better than ever (62.8 percent true shooting) while putting up nearly 40 points per 100 possessions this year. Everyone knows Edwards is one of the most explosive rim attackers in the world, but it’s also time to recognize him as one of the game’s best shooters: he’s knocking down just about 40 percent of his threes on 11.3 attempts from deep per 100 possessions. He still needs to grow as a playmaker and mid-range scorer, but Ant can summon a high-level defensively when he needs to while also being a terrifying driver and long-range shooter.

7. Stephen Curry, G, Golden State Warriors: The Warriors enter the new year fighting for their lives just to stay above .500, which feels like a bummer because Curry remains sensational. Would you believe that Curry is putting up the second-best per-possession scoring numbers of his historic career right now with 43.4 points per 100 possessions? It’s true. Steph continues to lap the field as the league’s best shooter, hitting 39 percent of a league-leading 18.3 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. It’s just wild that he’s posting 63.6 percent true shooting in his age-37 season. We are lucky to witness his greatness, but it would be nice if his team wasn’t drawing dead in the playoffs.

6. Cade Cunningham, G, Detroit Pistons: The Pistons are leading the East, and Cunningham is driving their success. The former No. 1 pick is a true two-way star at lead guard, carrying a heavy creation burden offensively while acting as a key cog in the league’s best defense outside of OKC. Cunningham has been unstoppable on isolations so far, and a shaky catch-and-shoot three-ball is the biggest thing holding back his efficiency. Cade isn’t an elite shooter or finisher and he still has turnover problems, but there’s no doubt he makes a gigantic impact for a great team. He’ll likely finish top-5 in MVP voting by season’s end as other’s drop out due to missed games.

5. Jalen Brunson, G, New York Knicks: Brunson remains the little engine who could for the Knicks. New York feels like it’s in the driver’s seat in the East right now, and Brunson’s elite shot-making is the main reason why. The 29-year-old guard is averaging 40.3 points per 100 possessions on 60 percent true shooting on the year. The fact that he’s a knockdown mid-range pull-up shooter makes so hard to guard when the game slows down, and he’s also become one of the league’s better playmakers with a nearly 30 percent assist rate. Brunson is an awful defender who ranks in the 1st percentile of defense EPM, but New York has other players to help him out on that end. The Knicks have a great shot at the NBA Finals this year, and it’s Brunson who will be leading the way and taking every big shot down the stretch.

4. Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs: It’s a question of when not if Wembanbyama will eventually win this award, and the real intrigue is how many. On the brink of his 22nd birthday, the 7’5 French superstar is the best defensive player in the league while quickly becoming one of its best offensive players. The mere sight of Wemby’s 8-foot wingspan deters offensive players from even thinking about trying to drive around him or shoot over him, and he makes more ridiculous blocks than any player in the league. There’s still room to grow on the offensive end, but he can completely takeover a game when he’s cooking. Wembanyama has cut his three-point attempts in half this year and still hits them at a respectable 35 percent. His two-point scoring feels like it should be better than 57 percent from the floor, but that’s because he faces so much defensive attention. The real story is in the lineup data, where the Spurs are +9.6 points per 100 possessions better with Wemby on the floor. This isn’t his award yet, but it will be soon.

3. Luka Doncic, G, Los Angeles Lakers

Luka’s revenge season has lived up to the hype. With no need to play himself into shape this year, Doncic hit the ground running and has been producing all-world numbers with the league’s highest usage rate so far. His 45.1 points per 100 possessions are a career-high, and he’s still over 60 percent true shooting despite only making 32 percent of his threes. Luka’s playmaking remains every bit as great as his scoring, with a 38.7 percent assist rate so far that ranks in the 98th percentile of the league. Take Luka off the floor and the Lakers get outscored by five points per 100 possessions. With him on, LA outscores its opponents by +4.7 points per 100. He’ll never be a defensive stopper, but it’s hard to imagine any player could be when they’re carrying a 39 percent usage rate that is twice as high as an average player. Doncic would play 75 games this season if he doesn’t miss another one, so he has a little margin for error on eligibility, too. This probably isn’t the year Luka finally wins his first MVP, but he’s one nagging injury away from probably getting it.

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks

Antetokounmpo can only miss three more games this season to maintain his award eligibility, but it’s important to note how great he’s been this season while he’s still eligible. Only player in NBA history has ever score at least a point per minute: Wilt Chamberlain in his historic 1962-63 season. Giannis is doing it right now, hitting one point-per-minute on the dot. His per-game averages don’t tell the whole story because he’s left two games early with injury and has been on a minutes restriction, but his scoring is as overwhelming as it’s ever been in his age-31 season. Per 100 possessions, Giannis is averaging 48.6 points, 16.4 rebounds, and 10 assists on immaculate 67.3 percent true shooting. He’s also putting up a ridiculous 35.1 PER which would be the best mark of his career, eclipsing even his two MVP seasons. His defense has slipped a little this year, but he has to do so much offensively that it’s understandable. He remains the league’s most ferocious rim scorer, and the rest of the NBA is no closer to learning how to stop him.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder

I would have had Jokic at No. 1 on my MVP list before his injury, and it feels especially devastating for him to lose out on the award when it would have put him in such historic company with Wilt and LeBron. There’s no doubt that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would still be a deserving recipient for the second time in his career, though. SGA is the best guard alive, a dominant mid-range shooter with improved three-point touch and an unstoppable array of crossovers and crafty finishes at his disposal. Before anyone calls him a flopper, I’d like to note that Doncic shoots significantly more free throws than SGA: Luka is at 15.7 free throw attempts per 100 possessions this year, while Shia is at 13.1 per 100. Don’t let false narratives fool you into believing that SGA is anything less than one of the three best guards of the NBA’s post-Jordan era. He’s averaging an absurd 46.3 points per 100 possessions on insane 67.8 percent true shooting — numbers that shouldn’t be possible for a 6’6 guard. It’s cool that Shai does most of his work from mid-range rather than spamming threes, but he’s still hitting 42 percent of his triples anyway this year. The Thunder have surrounded Gilgeous-Alexander with role players willing to do all the dirty work, but Shai can still defend when he needs to, using his quick hands and 7-foot wingspan to make disruptive plays when teams try to pick on him. He’s peaking much higher than Kobe Bryant ever did on the impartial spreadsheets, and he’s coming for Steph, too:

Back in Kobe’s age-27 season in 2005-2006, he averaged 45.6 points and 13 free throw attempts per 100 possessions, and I don’t remember anyone calling him a flopper then. Shai’s ability to get to the free throw line is something most all-time greats have, and it’s largely because no one can guard him. The Thunder have shown for vulnerability lately with three losses to the San Antonio Spurs, but SGA is the reason they’re still the prohibitive title favorite going forward.