Naoya Inoue vs Alan Picasso: Odds, betting tips, undercard, and more

Boxing’s pound-for-pound king Naoya “The Monster” Inoue looks to cement his legacy this Christmas as he defends his undisputed super-bantamweight crown against Mexico’s undefeated mandatory challenger, Alan “Rey” Picasso.

Headlining the “Night of the Samurai” in Riyadh on December 27, 2025, Inoue enters as a massive favourite, fresh off a tactical masterclass against Murodjon Akhmadaliev.

While Picasso brings a notable height advantage and a near-flawless 32-0-1 record, the UK market expects another clinical stoppage for the Japanese icon. The young Mexican represents a fresh, ambitious threat, yet the gulf in world-level experience is reflected in Picasso’s long-shot odds.

For punters, the value lies beyond the simple match betting, with “The Monster” aiming to close the year with another highlight-reel finish. Our preview breaks down the best UK value, from specific round groupings to method of victory, for this high-stakes festive showdown.

Naoya Inoue vs Alan Picasso quick tips

• Naoya Inoue to win – 1/40 with Paddy Power
• Naoya Inoue to win in rounds 4 to 6 – 2/1 with Betfred
• Naoya Inoue to win via KO/TKO – 1/10 with Paddy Power

Naoya Inoue vs Alan Picasso outcome odds

• Naoya Inoue – 1/28 at bet365
• Draw – 33/1 at bet365
• Alan Picasso – 12/1 at bet365

*odds correct at the time of writing

Inoue vs Picasso method of victory odds

• Naoya Inoue by KO/TKO – 1/8 with Betfred
• Naoya Inoue on points – 6/1 with Betfred
• Alan Picasso by KO/TKO – 18/1 with Betfred
• Alan Picasso on points – 33/1 with Betfred

*odds correct at the time of writing

Naoya Inoue record and stats

• Age: 32 years old
• Height: 5’5″
• Weight: Super bantamweight
• Record: 31-0-0

Alan Picasso record and stats

• Age: 25 years old
• Height: 5’8″
• Weight: Super bantamweight
• Record: 32-0-1

Naoya Inoue vs Alan Picasso betting tips

Naoya Inoue to win

Inoue will enter the ring as the massive favourite for this bout. So while this is the obvious angle, it is obvious for a reason. Paddy Power has Inoue by any method priced far shorter than a points win, which tells you how the market expects this one to play out. The offer from Paddy Power is also a lot better than some competitors, with Betfred offering 1/80 and 888Sport offering 1/50 as of writing.

Picasso is unbeaten and dangerous, but the step up in class he is taking here is huge. Inoue has 27 KOs in his 31 professional fights, and this one is very likely to go the same way.

Bet on Naoya Inoue to win at 1/40 with Paddy Power

Naoya Inoue to win in rounds 4 to 6

If you want a bit more value than simply just backing the stoppage, then betting on Naoya Inoue to win in rounds 4 to 6 is a smart middle ground. The early rounds can be a feeling out period, especially against a younger, fast challenger, then Inoue tends to start landing the cleaner, heavier shots as patterns emerge. 

‘Monster’ tends to get the knockout in the middle rounds; he finished Luis Nery in R6 (2024), Ye Joon Kim in R4 (January 2025), and Stephen Fulton in R8 (2023), so he has prior in this department. At 2/1, you are basically betting that Inoue gets his read and puts his foot down before the fight drifts into the later half.

Naoya Inoue to win in rounds 4 to 6 at 2/1 with Betfred

Naoya Inoue to win via KO/TKO

As mentioned, Inoue tends to get the KO in his bouts (27 KOs in his 31 professional fights). Picasso has his own impressive record, with 17 KOs across his own pro career (32-0-1), but as we’ve already discussed with the Inoue to win tip, this is such a massive step up in level for the Mexican star. 

The odds will likely move as we get closer to fight night, so always double-check your book before you bet to see if there are any major fluctuations to these odds. If you want to try and get all three of these tips in a Acca on a single platform it could work out pretty well if it lands!

Bet on Naoya Inoue to win via KO/TKO at 1/10 with Paddy Power

  How to watch Naoya Inoue vs Alan Picasso

• Location: Mohammed Abdo Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• Date and time: Saturday, 27th December 2025.
• How to watch: DAZN

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About the author

Frank Monkhouse

Frank is a former professional boxer at the renowned TKO Gym in London who has transitioned his career into sports betting writing. He has worked with some of the leading names in the industry, including world-renowned bookmakers and ambitious affiliates. A student of the formbook, he leans heavily on the stats and trends to help find readers the value.

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