Michigan vs. Alabama prediction, odds, pick for March Madness Sweet 16

After each winning their first two March Madness games by 20 points or more, Michigan and Alabama meet in the Sweet Sixteen.

The top-seeded Wolverines enter the game off a 95-72 win over Saint Louis, which followed a 101-80 nod over Howard in the Round of 64. After going over a month without a 20-point victory, Michigan now has a pair of them to begin the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Likewise, Alabama prepares for its toughest matchup of the year after dominating Texas Tech 90-65 in the Round of 32. After cruising past Howard in the opening round, many saw the Crimson Tide’s second act as an even matchup, but 19 three-pointers led to a dominant performance from start to finish.

March Madness odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Michigan vs. Alabama odds

Michigan: -8.5 (-112)

Alabama: +8.5 (-102)

Over: 173.5 (-105)

Under: 173.5 (-115)

Michigan vs. Alabama key injuries

Both teams will be without key guards who have been instrumental to their success all season. While Michigan continues to be without L.J. Cason, who suffered a season-ending injury against Illinois on Feb. 27, Alabama prepares for its third consecutive game sans second-leading scorer Aden Holloway. Holloway is not hurt, but rather in legal trouble after getting arrested with 2.1 pounds of marijuana in his possession.

Holloway is the bigger absence on paper, as he brings 16.8 points and 3.8 assists per game to the table, second on the team in both categories. He also led the Tide at the time of his absence with 74 made three-pointers on a 43.8 percent clip.

However, Michigan struggled at the end of the regular season and in the Big Ten Tournament without Cason. The Wolverines went 4-1 in their first five games without the sophomore guard, winning by an average of five points per game, despite entering four of them as double-digit favorites.

While neither absence has hurt either team thus far in the NCAA Tournament, it will be a key talking point for the losing team on Saturday morning.

Michigan vs. Alabama betting trends

• Michigan is 16-20 against the spread
• Michigan is 1-1 against the spread in March Madness
• Michigan is 6-4 against the spread as single-digit favorite
• Michigan is 15-21 to the over
• Alabama is 15-18 against the spread
• Alabama is 2-0 against the spread in March Madness
• Alabama is 3-4 against the spread as single-digit underdog
• Alabama is 17-15-1 to the over

Michigan vs. Alabama matchup

The battle between Michigan and Alabama will be one of contrasting styles. Nate Oats’ team wants to push the pace and chuck it up from deep, leading the country in three-pointers attempted and made per game, while the Wolverines want to pound the rock inside.

Alabama has to hope it can hit threes as consistently as it did against Texas Tech. Michigan’s switch-everything and aggressive defense has been susceptible to the long ball at times, allowing too many catch-and-shoot opportunities off drive-and-kick action. Wisconsin, a team that closely emulates the Crimson Tide’s offense, hit 31 triples in two matchups against the Wolverines.

Michigan is adept at defending threes off the dribble, where Labaron Philon is most effective. Alabama will need Latrell Wrightsell, Amari Allen and Houston Mallette to capitalize on their opportunities.

Alabama will need to hit from deep early and often to counteract the size and physicality it will deal with on the other end. Few teams can match Michigan’s size, with 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg and 6-foot-9 Morez Johnson Jr. constantly attacking the paint.

As good as Aiden Sherrell has been down the stretch, this is his toughest test to date, and at least one of the Wolverines’ big men will have a size mismatch at all times.

Michigan vs. Alabama prediction and pick

Alabama will have opportunities to stroke it from deep, but it will need something similar to the performance it had against Texas Tech to keep up with Michigan. The key for the Crimson Tide will be sustaining themselves for 40 minutes, as Saint Louis and Howard were competitive with the Wolverines in the first half before getting run out of the building in the second.

But aside from the three-point volume Michigan’s defense allows, the matchup is otherwise a nightmare for Alabama. The Wolverines will attack the rim from bell to bell, an area Oats’ team has been weak at defending all year. The Tide allow 37.2 points in the paint per game, ranking 338th, per CBB Analytics.

The only other area Michigan has consistently struggled in is turnovers, committing 11.8 giveaways per game. Yet Alabama is among the worst in the country at forcing mistakes, averaging just 9.6 takeaways per game.

Alabama has a path to victory from the outside, but it needs a near-perfect night to compete with a Michigan team that has rediscovered its groove. This is a game Oats will wish he still had Charles Bediako on his roster.

Final Michigan-Alabama prediction & pick: Michigan -8.5 (-112), Under 173.5 (-115)

The post Michigan vs. Alabama prediction, odds, pick for March Madness Sweet 16 appeared first on ClutchPoints.