Miami vs. Indiana prediction, odds, pick for CFP National Championship Game

A new national champion will be crowned in Miami, Florida, at the College Football Playoff National Championship.  Miami looks for its first title since 2001, while Indiana looks for its first-ever national championship. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Miami-Indian CFP National Championship prediction and pick.

Miami is now 13-2 on the season.  It was a solid regular season for the Hurricanes. They opened up 5-0, including a victory over Notre Dame. They would lose two of the next three games, but both games would be within one score. The Canes would finish the season with four more wins to finish the regular season 10-2.  Despite not playing for the ACC title due to losing a five-way tie-breaker to Duke, Miami got a spot in the playoff. In the first round, they hit the road to face Texas A&M, winning the game 10-3.  Then the Hurricanes would face Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl. Miami was once again dominant on defense, winning the game 24-14.

In the CFP semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss, the offense took center stage. Miami had a 17-13 lead going into the halftime break, but a third-quarter field goal and another in the fourth by the Rebels gave them the lead. Miami scored with 5:04 left in the game to take a five-point lead. Still, Ole Miss drove the field and then hit the two-point conversion to take a three-point lead. With just 3:13 left in the game, Miami took the ball. They drove the field and ended it with a three-yard touchdown run from Carson Beck, as Miami won the game 31-27.

Meanwhile, Indiana continues as the only undefeated team left in the nation. They are 15-0 on the season, with a 12-0 regular season record. They then took care of business against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, slowing down the Ohio State offense and winning the game 13-10. This would lead to Indiana getting the top seed and taking on Alabama in the CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl. It was once again domination by the Hoosiers, as they did not allow a touchdown in the 38-3 victory. Then, in the CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl against Oregon, Indiana flexed their muscle once again.

Indiana opened the game with a pick-six of Dante Moore just 11 seconds into the game. Oregon would tie the game, but Omar Cooper brought in a pass from Fernando Mendoza to make it 14-7 at the end of the first quarter. Indiana then scored 21 points in the second quarter to lead 35-7 at the end of the first half. The Hoisers would go on to add another 21 points, while forcing three turnovers in the game. Indiana punched their ticket to the national championship with a 56-22 win over Oregon.

These two teams have met just twice in their history. The first meeting was in 1964, and Indiana took a 28-14 victory on the road. They would meet again in Miami in 1966, with Miami taking the 14-7 victory.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Miami vs. Indiana Odds

Miami: +8.5 (-110)

Indiana: -8.5 (-110)

Over: 47.5 (-110)

Under: 47.5 (-110)

Miami vs. Indiana Key Injuries

Miami- DL Akheem Mesidor (Probable), DL Ahmad Moten (Probable), CB OJ Frederique (Probable), TE Elija Lofton (Questionable), LB Malik Bryant (Out), WR Daylyn Upshaw (Out)

Indiana-  DL Stephen Daley (Out), DL Kellan Wyatt (Out), RB Lee Beebe Jr. (Out)

Miami vs. Indiana Betting Trends

– Miami is 10-5 against the spread this year. They have covered in four straight and five of the last six, while also covering in both neutral-site games.

– Indiana is also 10-5 against the spread this year. They are 3-0 ATS at neutral site games this season.

– When an underdog, Miami,  has covered all three times, winning all three games outright

– When the favorite, Indiana, is 8-5 against the spread.

– The under has been the right side for Miami games in ten of 15 matchups, and has hit in three of the last four games.

– The over has hit just eight times in the 14 games for Indiana this year, but just twice in the last six games.

Keys to Miami vs. Indiana Matchup

As Miami prepares to face a suffocating Indiana defense, the key to the game is to get the passing game going. The offense has been one of the top in FBS this year. They are 26th in points per game while sitting 44th in yards per game. The Hurricanes have been average on the ground, sitting 66th in the running department, but they are 42nd in passing.

Mark Fletchet Jr. showed last week he can be a bruising back, running up the gut for multiple first downs. Still, the play of Carson Beck will play a pivotal role in deciding the fate of Miami. He has been great, passing for 3,581 yards and 39 touchdowns. He does have 11 interceptions, but has also run for two scores on the campaign. Beck was solid against Ole Miss, passing for 268 yards with two touchdowns through the air and one on the ground, but he did have a major interception in the game.

Beck is going to be facing stiff competition in this game, as the Indiana defense is stellar. They are second in the nation in opponent points per game and fourth in opponent yards per game. They are third against the run and 26th against the pass. Miami has shown they will give away the ball, and Indiana showed last week they can force turnovers. They are eighth in the nation in interception rate. Louis Moore becomes a major player here. He has two pass breakups, but also six interceptions this year to go with his 83 tackles.

Indiana has shown all year that it can adapt to what the defense gives. The Hooisers are third in points per game while sitting 16th in yards per game. They are also 11th in the run and 60th in the pass. The Hooises have a stellar backfield with Roman Hember and Kaelon Black. They have combined for over 2,000 yards rushing with 17 scores. Still, the Miami defense is solid against the run, which will make quarterback play the key. Fernando Mendoza has been great, leading to his Heiman victory. He has passed for 3,349 yards and 41 touchdowns, while being intercepted just six times. Further, he has run for 284 yards and another six touchdowns on the ground.

The Miami defense has been great this year. They are fifth in opponent points per game while sitting 11th in opponent yards per game. They are fifth against the run while sitting 50th against the pass. Star safety Jakobe Thomas will be the key player for Miami in this game. He is second on the team in tackles with 69. He also has 3.5 sacks, six pass breakups, five interceptions with a touchdown, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. The Canes defender has 21 tackles, with half a sack, two pass breakups, and a pick so far in the playoffs.

Miami vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Miami is technically the away team in this game, but they are playing at Hard Rock Stadium, their home during the regular season. While home-field advantage for Miami is not the same as a school like Ohio State or Oregon, it will still be helpful. Still, Indiana has gone into Oregon this year and won, so the noise may not be a factor. Still, the Indiana defense is amazing. They have given up more than 15 points just three times this year, and have scored 30 or more 12 times. Miami has been great, but it showed flaws against Ole Miss. Indiana will exploit them.

Final Miami vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick:  Indiana -8.5 (-110) and Over 47.5 (-110) 

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