Manchester United vs Newcastle United predictions and betting tips – Who will boost top-four hopes?

Manchester United and Newcastle United began the campaign with a shared aim of qualifying for the Champions League, but there is still considerable work for both teams to do.

Who will come out on top when Manchester United host Newcastle United at Old Trafford in the Premier League’s only Boxing Day fixture this year?

• Newcastle to win – 7/4 with Midnite
• Both teams to score – evens with Sky Bet
• Nick Woltemade to score any time – 16/11 with 247Bet

Manchester United vs Newcastle United odds

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Manchester United vs Newcastle United predictions

Manchester United and Newcastle United both have considerable room for improvement as 2026 approaches.

Champions League qualification remains the objective for both clubs, but there is plenty of work to do if either side are to realise that goal.

Start with Manchester United. They are seventh in the standings going into this Boxing Day bout, with only three points separating them from the top four.

That is not a bad position to be in. United have made obvious strides forward from last season, most notably in attack. Frequently a blunt instrument last term, United are creating and converting chances at a higher rate this time around. Only Manchester City have made the net ripple more often.

However, Ruben Amorim’s side have been too leaky at the back. Just five sides have conceded more goals than United, who have leaked 28 in 17 games, while they have only managed a solitary clean sheet so far.

One could argue the Red Devils have been unlucky not to have collected more points in recent weeks. They were the better team in a 4-4 draw with Bournemouth and probably shaded the 2-1 defeat by Aston Villa too. Yet United picked up one point from a possible six across those two contests.

Another way to look at it is that United are not ruthless enough. That will concern Amorim, especially now that Bruno Fernandes has joined a list of absentees which already included Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo, both of whom are in Morocco for the Africa Cup of Nations.

Newcastle are four places lower than Manchester United. They are still only six points shy of the top four, so all is not lost for Eddie Howe’s men. But the manager will know as well as anyone that a significant improvement is needed after Christmas. 

For starters, Newcastle must get better on their travels. Just one of their eight away games this season has ended in victory. That is nowhere near good enough for a side that aspires to be in next year’s Champions League. Only last-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers have won fewer matches at opposition grounds.

Newcastle also need more creativity and guile. They rank second for expected goals against, but their own xG is only the 11th-highest in the division. Without fashioning better opportunities, the Magpies will struggle to climb into those Champions League spots.

Manchester United vs Newcastle United betting tips

Three points are up for grabs when Manchester United and Newcastle United lock horns.

Newcastle to bag rare away win

It is hard to overstate just how important Fernandes is to United.

When you think of one-man teams in Premier League history, you usually come up with mid-table or struggling sides like Southampton (Matt Le Tissier), Crystal Palace (Wilfried Zaha) or Sunderland (Jermain Defoe).

Yet Fernandes feels as crucial a component for Manchester United as any of those players did at their respective clubs. Without him, and with Amad and Mbeumo also absent, it is hard to see Amorim’s men coming out on top.

Newcastle have been poor on the road this season, but this is a golden opportunity for them to pick up a statement victory on unfamiliar territory.

Back Newcastle to win at 7/4 with Midnite

Clean sheets to elude both teams

As mentioned above, Manchester United have managed just one shut-out in 17 Premier League games this season.

It is a dire record and one which, if it continues, will put a ceiling on what United can achieve this season.

The underlying defensive numbers are more positive for Newcastle, yet they have conceded in 10 consecutive away games.

It is hard to envisage either side keeping a clean sheet on Friday, with Senne Lammens and Aaron Ramsdale likely to have to pick the ball out of their own net at least once.

Go for both teams to score at evens with Sky Bet

Woltemade on scoresheet?

Having drawn a blank in five consecutive games, excluding an own goal against arch-rivals Sunderland, Nick Woltemade was relieved to score twice at the right end against Chelsea.

All things considered the Germany international has had a fine start to his Newcastle career.

Woltemade needs one more strike to get into double figures for 2025/26 and we are backing him to reach that milestone at Old Trafford.

The former Stuttgart striker is a threat in the air and on the ground, and United’s weakened defence will have its hands full in trying to keep him off the scoresheet.

Tip Nick Woltemade to score any time at 16/11 with 247Bet

Manchester United vs Newcastle United predicted lineups

• Manchester United expected lineup: Lammens; Yoro, Heaven, Shaw; Dalot, Casemiro, Martinez, Dorgu; Cunha, Sesko, Mount.
• Newcastle United expected lineup: Ramsdale; Miley, Thiaw, Schar, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon.

Where to watch Manchester United vs Newcastle United

• Location: Old Trafford, Manchester, England.
• Date and time: Friday 26th December, 8pm.
• How to watch: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.

More Premier League predictions

We have plenty more Premier League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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