Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett predictions: Ilia Topuria, Arman Tsarukyan, Dustin Poirier and more give UFC 324 verdict
Justin Gaethje fights Paddy Pimblett for UFC gold on Saturday – and the sport’s biggest stars are divided on the outcome.
Gaethje faces Pimblett for the interim UFC lightweight title, with the winner likely to fight Ilia Topuria for the chance to become the division’s undisputed champion.
The top-ranked lightweight contenders will trade blows in the main event of UFC 324 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
It is the first UFC show of 2026 and a significant landmark for Dana White‘s promotion as its new broadcast deal with Paramount+ gets underway.
Liverpool’s charismatic Pimblett secured his seventh successive win when he defeated Michael Chandler nine months ago and has vowed to become a world champion ever since his promotional debut in 2021.
Gaethje, on the other hand, outpointed Rafael Fiziev in his last outing and has recognised his fight with Pimblett as his last chance to hold an undisputed UFC title.
Members of the MMA community believe Gaethje’s experience and hard-hitting style will prove too much for Pimblett, while others predict the Liverpudlian to show his youth and get his arm raised.
Here, talkSPORT.com looks at how several of the most prominent names in MMA see the Las Vegas main event going.
Who is backing Justin Gaethje?
Arman Tsarukyan
“Justin, sometimes he fights so good, sometimes so bad,” Tsarukyan, who felt he was hard done by not getting a shot at the interim lightweight title himself, said on ESPN MMA.
“Hopefully, he’s gonna over strike him on the feet with his boxing and kicks, and then Paddy is gonna try to wrestle him, and he’s gonna defend his wrestling and win by decision, Gaethje.”
Dan Hooker
“I don’t think [Pimblett’s] the favourite,” Hooker told Submission Radio.
“I wouldn’t have him. Gaethje’s takedown defence is pretty sharp. I don’t see him…
“We just haven’t seen Paddy get in there that often, and mix it up with the best guys in their prime.”
Khalil Rountree
Speaking on the Jaxxon podcast, former UFC light heavyweight title contender Rountree said: “I think Pimblett has the skills to get the submission.
“But Gaethje is the guy to go through the technical stuff: the flying triangles, all of the crazy stuff that Paddy’s able to do.
“Gaethje has the experience, the heart, and then the technical stuff – it makes for a very interesting main event, I’m going with Gaethje in this one.”
Eddie Alvarez
“The key to the fight for Gaethje is just to create a lot of volume,” Alvarez, who held the UFC lightweight title in 2016 and has a win over Gaethje on his record, told Mike Bohn.
“The leg kicks are gonna be everything to take away Paddy’s lead leg, to stop the onslaught.
“But Paddy makes a lot of mistakes, so he’s susceptible to getting knocked out…
“At the end of the day, the UFC, of course, is gonna want Paddy to pull through, and it’s hard to bet against the machine.
“But I think if anybody can do it, can beat the machine, it’s Justin Gaethje. He’s just very unpredictable.”
Dustin Poirier
“I just think (Gaethje) been in those 25-minute fights. He’s been in those dog fights before,” Poirier said on The Ariel Helwani Show.
“I think Paddy is going to have a tough time stopping him on the feet, and I don’t think Paddy is going to get him down, so he’s going to have to fight with him.
“Unless Paddy can keep it disciplined for 25 minutes, keep his distance, picks his shots, Justin is just a bigger puncher, and he’ll put himself in harms way to land one of those shots.
“It’s tough to stay away from for 25 minutes. I think he’ll stop him.”
Who is backing Paddy Pimblett?
Ilia Topuria
“I think [Pimblett’s] going to win, easy,” Topuria, current UFC lightweight champion, said on the Joe Rogan Experience.
“[Gaethje] doesn’t know how to grapple, and Paddy knows that. Have you ever seen him submit someone?
“If you have the ability to submit someone as soon as you can, you would do it.”
Sean O’Malley
Former UFC bantamweight champion O’Malley hopes to get his name back in the title picture in his own fight against Song Yadong at UFC 324.
Predicting the main event on his YouTube channel, ‘Suga’ said: “I’m leaning towards Paddy.
“He does get hit with left hooks, but he looked so good against Michael Chandler.
“Paddy’s got a lot of ways to win… he’s a scouser.”
Alexander Volkanovski
UFC featherweight champion Volkanovski believes Pimblett’s ability to implement a game plan will give him an advantage over Gaethje.
“There’s been a couple of times where I thought Paddy’s had big tests in front of him, and he’s passed them,” he told the UFC.
“He’s shown me in his last fight that he can stick to a game plan. And he’s gonna need that with Gaethje. So I’m gonna go with Paddy.”
Arnold Allen
Allen is another fighter with a bout at UFC 324, predicting Pimblett will get the win.
The Englishman faces Jean Silva in the main card opener to decide who will climb up the featherweight rankings.
Speaking to talkSPORT.com, Allen said: “I think he’ll win. I think Paddy will look great.
“The momentum he’s got, the improvements he’s made… I like the Chandler performance; it was fantastic.
“And every fight before that, I know people pull up the records and say that they’re on losing records and they’re perfect match-ups.
“Maybe, maybe they’re all perfect match-ups, but he did the perfect performance. He had the perfect match-up, but he did exactly what he needed to do.”
Tony Ferguson
Ferguson’s opinion stands out from most of his peers, considering he’s fought both Pimblett and Gaethje.
“If I were going to try and place a bet, I would go with the new kid that’s going in for the new opportunity, rather than the old kid who fought for the belt,” he told talkSPORT.com.
“It’s going to go to Paddy, but best of luck for both of them, I hope they knock each other the f*** out.”
Demetrious Johnson
“I think Paddy’s going to get the submission,” Johnson told the Jaxxon podcast.
UFC 324 begins with the early prelims from 10pm GMT (5pm ET) on Saturday, live on Paramount+ for US fans and TNT Sports Box Office in the UK.
Also on the card, O’Malley faces Yadong in the chief support act, Waldo Cortes-Acosta fights Derrick Lewis at heavyweight, Rose Namajunas takes on Natalia Silva, and Allen takes on Jean Silva.
Umar Nurmagomedov, Ateba Gautier and Modestas Bukauskas all feature in the prelims.
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