Italy v Northern Ireland betting tips and predictions – Who will move a step closer to the World Cup finals?

Mar 26, 2026 - 07:00

Italy host Northern Ireland in Bergamo on Thursday night, hoping to make a giant leap towards the 2026 World Cup qualification.

Northern Ireland face a tough test against the four-time World Cup winners as the pair battle it out in Path A of the European playoffs semi final.

The winner of this clash will take on either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the final to decide who qualifies for the tournament in North America this summer.

Can Northern Ireland end their 40-year wait for a World Cup return?

Italy v Northern Ireland best bets

Italy to win to nil – 10/11 with Sky Bet
Mateo Retegui, Trai Hume and Both teams to score – 6/1 with Sky Bet

Italy v N Ireland betting tips, predictions, team news and how to watch

Italy v Northern Ireland latest odds

Find the latest Italy v Northern Ireland betting odds here, and are courtesy of Betfred and are subject to change.

Italy – 2/7
Draw – 9/2
Northern Ireland – 10/1

Italy v Northern Ireland prediction

Italy, who finished second behind Norway in Group A, have won six of their last seven matches and go into this one as huge favourites on home soil.

The Azzurri have scored 19 goals in that time, including five goals on two occasions. But perhaps more crucially for their hopes on Thursday, they’ve kept three clean sheets in six games. Outscoring their opponents in five of those.

The head to head record also favours Italy, being undefeated against the Green and White Army in eight games, winning six of those.

With full back Connor Bradley having already been ruled out for the season. Northern Ireland will also have to do without star centre back Dan Ballard too, with a hamstring injury.

The Sunderland defender has been a stand out for club and country, but Michael O’Neill will have to shuffle the pack and find alternatives from within.

While Sandro Tonali is touch and go for Italy after limping off with a groin injury in Newcastle’s Champions League tie against Barcelona.

Room for optimism for Northern Ireland?

Northern Ireland’s World Cup qualification journey has been tough, but they’ve showcased tactical discipline and grit to make it to this stage.

Known for upsetting stronger teams with set-pieces, they usually play low-scoring games, which speaks to their defensive toughness.

This underdog tag is something that the team thrive off according to defender Brodie Spencer.

He said: “Coming up through the age groups of Northern Ireland, we’ve always been seen as the underdogs and I think we thrive with that underdog title.

“It suits us, you know, being the underdogs and a team sort of downplaying us. Then to be able to go out there and put in a good performance against big teams and then you can start to see the teams start to respect us a bit more.”

The winner of path A will go into Group B for the World Cup alongside co-hosts Canada, Switzerland and Qatar.

Current odds to win the path, has Italy at 1/2 and Northern Ireland out at a chunky 16/1 with Sky Bet.

Italy v Northern Ireland betting tips

Italy to win to nil – 10/11 with Sky Bet

Italy have kept a clean sheet in the last five head-to-heads with Northern Ireland.

Despite being thrashed 4-1 by Norway in November. Italy have been better defensively across the qualification campaign.

Save, the 4-5 thrilling win over Israel, Gennaro Gattuso’s men have only conceded one goal from games against Moldova (away), Estonia (away), Israel (home) and Estonia at home.

Gattuso chose to pair Alessandro Bastoni with Riccardo Calafiori at centre back in the 5-0 win over Estonia and could do so again on Thursday.

Mateo Retegui, Trai Hume and Both teams to score – 6/1 with Sky Bet

Italy’s top goalscorer in the qualifying was Mateo Retegui. The Al-Qadsiah has plundered five goals in eight games during 2025.

The former Genoa and Atalanta forward has gone from strength to strength since declaring for Italy in 2023 and will be the main threat in attack for Northern Ireland to contend with.

Trai Hume has come into his own this season, being a near ever present for Sunderland in their first campaign back in the Premier League.

He’s been fouled 33 times in the Premier League, the most of any Sunderland player this season.

He’ll be trying to get in advanced areas and make things happen for his nation, which could draw some fouls in dangerous areas.

Italy v Northern Ireland predicted lineups

Italy (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Politano, Barella, Locatelli, Zaccagni; Retegui, Kean

Northern Ireland (3-4-2-1): Peacock-Farrell; McConville, McNair, Toal; Hume, Charles, Galbraith, Devenny; Price, Galbraith; Reid

How to watch Italy v Northern Ireland

Location: New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
Date and time: Thursday 26th March 2026, 7:45pm
How to watch: BBC One NI, BBC Three, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport Website

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