French Open men’s semifinal rankings by 2026 championship chances

This ain’t my first rodeo at ranking a men’s final four at a Grand Slam. But in the past few years, most of them have three specific dudes — Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic — always staring at you like creepy horror movie triplets asking you in monotone “who is better, Oliver? Which of us will win, Oliver?” But for the 2026 French Open, the horror movie is over. We’re free!

None of Alcaraz (who missed the tournament with injury), Sinner or Djokovic even made it to the fourth round on this tournament. Weirdly, though, that has not made the final four any more interesting to rank; this is probably the easiest Top 4 I’ve ever thrown together, given that Sinner/Alcaraz was a dead heat for two straight years and Novak was generally a solid third. In fact, by the fourth round, we were out of players who had ever won a major in their careers, leading to an endlessly fascinating question of whom the literal heck will win this thing. Let’s find out!

1. Alexander Zverev

Never did I ever think that Alexander Zverev would grace the top of one of these columns, but here we are. And if not now, then when? Seriously, this may be Zverev’s last best chance in the history of ever to win a Grand Slam given he is quite a bit older that Alcaraz and Sinner and is far-and-away the best player remaining on paper. Clay has been his most successful surface in the Grand Slams, and he is the only player in the Top 10 for career prize money never to have won a major. Even contemporary Daniil Medvedev, who’s had a rough go of it lately, snagged a single US Open.

His generation of players just have to be kicking themselves with their lot in life. First Djokovic-Nadal-Federer, now Alcaraz-Sinner? This is just cruel and unusual. Zverev is a perennial top-four player, who suffered a horrific injury in the prime of his career in the very match, French Open semifinal, that he is about to play. I’m not saying a lot is riding on this for Zverev; I’m saying everything is riding on this.

2. Flavio Cobolli

Everyone freak out because we have an all-Italian semifinal and Jannik Sinner is not one of the Italians. Cobolli has been an up-and-coming player, having strung together some nice performances on the tour and three career singles titles but yet to capture a prestigious ATP 1000 event in singles. He did, however, lead Team Italy to win the 2025 Davis Cup, an experience that TNT analyst John McEnroe has repeatedly underscored as super-duper-important on broadcasts during his run to the semifinals. 

People forget this, but tennis used to be a profoundly national sport, with sophisticated selection processes of players operating almost like a team sport; think the FIFA World Cup or World Baseball Classic. Cobolli seems to appreciate this concept, and is coming in as the highest ranked Italian in the all-Italian Bowl that, again, does not include Jannik Sinner. Perhaps Sinner was not the bringer of the Italian Tennissance (second most important Italian Renaissance behind … the actual Italian Renaissance), but just another a part of the larger movement.

3. Jakub Mensik

The only time in my life I wrote about Jakub Mensik was when I did a big preview of the 2025 US Open, and here’s what I had to say; “He’s 19, 6’5” and grabbed a big-time win over Djokovic at the 2025 Miami Open, an ATP Masters 1000-level event.” I have more to say now.

That Djokovic win is now his second-most-impressive career win, seeing as he actually beat Jannik Sinner himself in three sets on the hardcourts of the Qatar Open. Big time stuff. Mensik is one of the harbingers of the youth movement that is taking over men’s tennis, and brings the power-speed combination that is no longer a luxury of the best players who don’t have to choose between hard serves and court coverage. Mensik does it all, because he must do it all. Everyone must do it all, or they will simply be cannon fodder for a men’s game that has been relentlessly improving for my entire life. Improvements to training, analytics and prize money have created a class of young players that blows every other period of the game out of the water. It’s like a runaway greenhouse effect that makes the surface of Venus 867 degrees. Only the strongest will survive the pressure. 

4. Matteo Arnaldi

We knew there would be a Matteo in the 2026 French Open semifinals going into Arnaldi’s showdown with Matteo Berretini, but the latter unfortunately had to retire due to injury in the second set. Nobody likes to see that, but the short match bodes extremely well for Arnaldi, who fought the War to End All Wars against Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round, a match that saw him astrally project into a tennis Jedi that could sense where Tiafoe was hitting the ball. 

He’s had an up-and-down career, but Arnaldi could totally make something happen after a legitimately spectacular run through his bracket that lost all its Top 10 players before they could get to him. It’s usually better to be lucky than good, and Arnaldi has been both. Double good. Seems good.