Fernando Mendoza’s NFL buzz too loud for No. 1 pick expectations

There’s no doubt it was a special season for Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana Hoosiers. And his late-game courage was off the charts. However, the NFL is a different animal, and Mendoza’s NFL buzz may be a bit too loud.

First, the good stuff. Mendoza led Indiana to a 16-0 record, passing for 41 touchdowns with six interceptions. He completed a remarkable 72% of his passes, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt.

He’s good and deserves to be a first-round pick. But … did the game against Miami reveal some things?

Will Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza be a franchise changer?

It seems likely Mendoza is headed to the Raiders, who own the first overall pick. But being selected No. 1 overall doesn’t guarantee anything.

There’s plenty of evidence, even recently. JaMarcus Russell went to the Raiders at No. 1 in 2007. His career record of 7-18 tells all you need to know. But how about 18 career touchdown passes and 23 interceptions?

Then there’s David Carr, who went to the Texans at No. 1 in 2002. After 10 years in the league, his career mark of 23-56 spoke a sad story. But at least he managed to start 79 games, right?

More recent looks are Bryce Young (2023) and Cam Ward (2025). Granted, the jury may still be out for Young. But he’s 14-30 over three seasons, even though he did make the playoffs this year.

Ward only has one season under his belt. But he went 3-14 and completed less than 60% of his passes.

The point of all this is that being selected No. 1 overall guarantees nothing in the NFL. So if that happens for Mendoza, it doesn’t mean he has arrived.

QB Fernando Mendoza didn’t shine against Miami

Yes, Indiana won. Yes, Mendoza came up with some clutch throws and one gritty run that will remain etched in college football lore.

But signature moments in college matter for nothing in the NFL. When Mendoza takes his first NFL snap, all of those great college accomplishments won’t matter.

And it also won’t matter that Miami got him off-center several times in Monday’s championship game. And Mendoza’s final line of 16 for 27 for 186 yards with no touchdown passes couldn’t have inspired confidence in NFL general managers.

In fact, Mendoza showed a red flag, according to NFL draft guru Lance Zierlein.

“I’m giving Mendoza a pretty strong grade for my (NFL.com) draft profile, but the one thing that bothers me is how heavy his shoes are when the pressure starts to mount in that pocket. Just doesn’t slide around the pocket nice and smooth, and he struggles to escape once it leaks.”

Now think about this from an NFL standpoint. If a guy isn’t smooth in the pocket as a foundational quality, he’s going to get sacked often. NFL pass rushers are beasts, far better than what Miami displayed.

And if Mendoza takes a lot of sacks, it’s going to be difficult for him to rise to a premier level in the NFL.

Mendoza’s biggest-stage performance just didn’t move the NFL needle, according to NFL.com.

“But Mendoza struggled to generate big pass plays most of the night, out-passed by Beck, 232 yards to 186, completing 16 of 27 passes,” Eric Edholm wrote. “Mendoza had an efficient first half, but he was increasingly under fire as the game went on, sacked by the Hurricanes on three of his first five pass attempts of the second half.

“If you came expecting aerial fireworks, you might have been disappointed. This was far from a showcase passing performance from Mendoza. He was hit several times, forcing the Hoosiers to lean more on the run game and play field-position ball.”

Is Fernando Mendoza a lock for the Raiders?

It seems like Tom Brady is swooning over Mendoza. That alone might be the tipping point.

But there’s a problem for Mendoza if he goes to the Raiders. That’s a bad roster. And it’s a terrible receiver room for Mendoza. Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton Jr., and other no-name wideouts.

The good news is that he would have Brock Bowers, one of the NFL’s top young tight ends. And despite getting almost no blocking, Ashton Jeanty had a reasonably encouraging rookie season at running back.

But the biggest issue is that horrible offensive line. It ranks No. 32 in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

“While no other team gave up more than 35 sacks during the 2025 regular season, Las Vegas’ offensive line surrendered 47 sacks,” Zoltán Buday wrote. “The unit’s 79.3 PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating ranked dead last in the NFL.

“Raiders left tackle Stone Forsythe led the league with 13 sacks allowed. And right tackle DJ Glaze ranked second with 10 sacks surrendered.”

Yikes. Now think about Mendoza’s relative lack of pocket presence and mobility behind that line. That looks like a rookie-year disaster. The Raiders might be better off keeping Geno Smith as the starter for 2026 and letting Mendoza sit during his first season.

But overall, this team is nowhere near NFL competitiveness. And that makes it a dicey situation for Mendoza.

And here’s the final catch for Fernando Mendoza

He thrived on a great team. Solid offensive line. Strong receiving group. Good running game. Tough defense. Great — out of this world great — coaching.

But what if some of those elements are missing in the NFL? What if all of them are missing? It could bring him down, according to atozsports.com.

“There’s little question that Mendoza can function when things are solid around him, but is this the type of talent who can elevate others at a high level?” Ryan Roberts wrote. “Top selections, more often than not, are going to go to very bad football teams, which the Raiders are. I don’t think of Mendoza as a quarterback who is going to greatly change the trajectory of a program, but more just accentuate it.

“I like Mendoza as a quarterback, but I just can’t get to the point of loving him as a prospect. There’s just something missing.”

And that’s the problem for Mendoza.

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