Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots odds, predictions, and betting tips – Ravens shockingly favoured at home

The 7-7 Baltimore Ravens, who are coming off a shutout win over the Cincinnati Bengals, are hosting the 11-3 and AFC East-leading New England Patriots. 

As of today, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, while the Ravens are out of the playoffs. Even if the Ravens were to win, they’d need plenty of help to move into the playoff picture. 

That being said, let’s check out this early Monday morning edition of the NFL in more detail below. 

Ravens vs Patriots best bets

• Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing TDs – 3/4 with BetMGM
• Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 Passing TDs – EVS with Paddy Power
• Derrick Henry anytime TD – 4/5 with Sky Bet

The Patriots fell in Week 15, coming out of their bye week, to the Buffalo Bills, 35-31. At one point in the game, the Patriots led 21-0, and at halftime it was 24-7.

Their run defence has been weaker lately, allowing 133 rushing yards per game over their last three, including 168 to the Bills. Over the course of the season, the number is 95.1. That said, opponents’ passing numbers are down to 165.3 yards per game over their last three. 

One of the biggest red flags for the Patriots right now is wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Over their previous three games, Diggs has only run a route on 56.7% of quarterback Drake Maye’s dropbacks.

For context, fellow wide receiver Mack Hollins is at 74% and tight end Hunter Henry is at 77.9%. For a guy pegged to be the No. 1 wide receiver, he needs to be on the field more. He’s racked up just eight catches on 11 targets for 72 yards over that span. 

As for the Ravens, it’s been an odd season. They shut out the Bengals last week, 24-0, but they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers a week earlier (27-22) and lost to the Bengals 32-14 before that.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson missed some time due to injury, and the team went on a four-game winning streak with him under center, but his typical passing prowess has been relatively absent. 

Their run defence has stepped up over the last three games, holding opponents to 87.3 yards per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL in that span. That said, they’re allowing more production through the air, surrendering 245.3 passing yards per game over that three-game span, which ranks 26th in the NFL. 

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Ravens vs Patriots preview

While the Patriots are coming off a devastating loss, I’m a bit surprised to see the Ravens favoured by three points in this game. Yes, they’re coming off a shutout win, holding down the Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow. However, of Burrow’s two interceptions, one wasn’t his fault, and the other was a pick-six. 

Thus, the Ravens’ offence scored 17 points against the worst defence in the NFL. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson completed just eight of 12 passes for 150 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. 

I say all of this because, while a shutout is a shutout and I’m taking that away from Baltimore, this offence is struggling, and now they’re facing a better defence. 

Running back Derrick Henry will continue to play well, as he usually does in December and January, but I worry about Jackson. 

The Patriots play a mix of coverages, but against Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4 this season (the Patriots have played all of these on at least 84 opposing quarterback dropbacks), Jackson has just three touchdown passes and four interceptions. 

That said, the Patriots do play a fair bit of Cover-1, which Jackson has completed under 60% of his passes against, but has seven touchdowns. 

Overall, I think this will be a lower-scoring game, and the Patriots escape with the win and cover the spread by default. 

Ravens vs Patriots tips

Find the latest odds for the Baltimore Ravens vs the New England Patriots courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

As mentioned, this spread is somewhat surprising. That said, the Ravens are the home team; Henry should have a productive day running the ball; the Patriots are coming off a tough loss; and the Ravens just shut out one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Given the current context, I understand this spread, but the Patriots are the better team. 

Drake Maye under 1.5 passing TDs

Maye has thrown 23 passing touchdowns this season, but has had one or fewer in three of his last four games, including just one against the lowly Bengals defence. Against the Bills, he failed to throw a touchdown, but did run two in. 

Still, I think he’s held to one or fewer this week, too. 

The Ravens play Cover-1 and Cover-3 more than any other coverage. Against those, Maye has 10 passing touchdowns, and has only thrown multiple touchdown passes against them in three games all year. 

Additionally, the Ravens are holding opposing quarterbacks to 1.36 passing touchdowns per game, and have only allowed multiple touchdown passes just once since Week 5. 

Bet on Drake Maye to have 1 passing touchdown or fewer against the Ravens at 3/4 with BetMGM

Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing TDs

In addition to Maye going for one passing touchdown or fewer, I believe the same can be said for Jackson. 

He had two passing touchdowns last week, but before that, he went five weeks with only two total passing scores. 

While Jackson has had success against Cover-1 this season, the Patriots run a variety of looks, and against Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4, he has only had three passing touchdowns all season.

Tip Lamar Jackson to have 1 passing touchdown or fewer against the Patriots at EVS with Paddy Power

Derrick Henry anytime TD

This game is going to feature a lot of running with the football, and Henry will benefit. 

Watching the game against the Bengals, the Ravens appeared to deliberately hold Henry back. After all, it was a shutout, so why run Henry any more than necessary? 

He had only 11 carries, but ran for 100 yards. 

He hasn’t scored in two weeks, but the Patriots have been more vulnerable lately, allowing three rushing and one receiving score to running backs over their last two games. 

The key for the Ravens in this game will be for Henry to have plenty of carries and wear the Patriots down.

Back Derrick Henry to score a touchdown against the Patriots at 4/5 with Sky Bet

Ravens vs Patriots injury report

Below are the key injuries to report ahead of this Monday’s action.

Baltimore Ravens

• Out: Teddye Buchanan (linebacker) – torn ACL; Justice Hill (running back) – neck.
• Questionable: Chidobe Awuzie (cornerback) – foot; Jay Higgins (linebacker) – knee; John Jenkins (defensive lineman) – illness; Tyler Linderbaum (centre) – knee; Ronnie Stanley (left tackle) – knee/ankle; Kyle Van Noy (outside linebacker) – quad.
• Doubtful: N/A

New England Patriots

• Out: Will Campbell (offensive tackle) – knee; Terrell Jennings (running back) – concussion.
• Questionable: Carlton Davis III (cornerback) – hip; Christian Elliss (linebacker) – illness; Marcus Jones (cornerback) – knee; Harold Landry III (linebacker) – knee; Robert Spillane (linebacker) – ankle.
• Doubtful: N/A

Ravens vs Patriots game info

• Date: Monday 22nd December
• Time: 1:20am GMT
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
• Where to watch: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports NFL

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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