Australian Open betting guide: Our tips for 2026’s first Grand Slam

Grand Slam tennis is back with the first of four majors in 2026 – the Australian Open – about to get under way in Melbourne.

The ‘Happy Slam’, as it is often dubbed, arrives just three weeks into the new season and its position in the calendar helps explain why it has traditionally thrown up more than its fair share of surprise winners and finalists – Madison Keys being a case in point 12 months ago.

It is one of two Slams played on a hardcourt – the specific surface is GreenSet which tends to play a little faster than average.

The heat is often a challenge that needs to be overcome, with temperatures having been known to top 40C at Melbourne Park.

Australian Open 2026 quick tips

• Carlos Alcaraz to win the men’s singles – 7/4 with BetVictor
• Aryna Sabalenka to win the women’s singles – 9/4 with bet365
• Joao Fonseca each way in the men’s singles – 75/1 with BetMGM
• Karolina Muchova each way in the women’s singles – 33/1 with Sky Bet

Jannik Sinner has ruled the roost here in each of the past two years which means he’ll be bidding for a three-peat this time around but arch rival Carlos Alcaraz will be out to stop him – the Spaniard will complete the youngest male player to complete the career Grand Slam of all four majors if he emerges triumphant.

Ten-time champion Novak Djokovic still harbours hopes of adding to his 24 Grand Slam titles – victory would see him surpass Margaret Court and set a new record for major wins.

On the women’s side, 2023 and 2024 winner Aryna Sabalenka will be looking to wrest the crown back having lost to Keys in last year’s final, while Iga Swiatek will, like Alcaraz, seek to win in Melbourne for the first time and complete the Grand Slam set.

In short, this is a tournament which promises much, so let’s take a closer look at who might emerge victorious and who to place your bets on with the top UK bookies.

Australian Open 2026 predictions

The Australian Open’s position in the calendar means there’s little to go on in the way of current form – only two weeks of tennis are played before the first ball is struck at Melbourne Park.

The Big Two in the men’s draw – Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner – both opted out of playing a warm-up event, although the duo ended 2025 in fine fettle.

On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka started well in Brisbane – as she’s often done in the past – while Iga Swiatek made a strong start to her season at the United Cup, where Belinda Bencic and Elise Mertens have been others to catch the eye.

Alcaraz can complete Slam set

OK, time for some Australian Open tips!

The 2025 Grand Slams were dominated by two players – Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz – and it would take a brave man to bet against them in Melbourne.

They’ve contested the last three Slam finals and, between them, they’ve captured the last eight titles.

Jannik Sinner

Sinner, the two-time defending champion, is odds-on to complete a hat-trick but I feel that makes Alcaraz the value call at around the 7/4 mark.

He’s won seven of the last nine meetings with Sinner at tour level and while he lost the most recent – the flast match of the 2025 season at the ATP Finals – Sinner won’t have the advantage of his favourite indoor conditions here.

Admittedly, Alcaraz is yet to go beyond the quarter-finals in Melbourne but that looks an anomaly which will be corrected sooner rather than later.

Novak Djokovic

Some will be prepared to back Novak Djokovic given he’s a 10-time champion here.

However, his body is increasingly letting him down with the Serb – forced to miss his scheduled opening assignment of this season – admitting the physicality of tennis these days is tough for him at the age of 38.

“It will be very difficult for me in the future to overcome the hurdle of Sinner and Alcaraz in best-of-five at the Grand Slams,” he said at the US Open, where he made his fourth Slam semi-final of 2025 – still remarkable consistency.

Taylor Fritz

As for longer shots, Taylor Fritz looks one to avoid – his tendinitis clearly hasn’t been cured during the off-season judging but what we saw at the United Cup.

Hubert Hurkacz & Alex de Minaur

Hubert Hurkacz impressed at that event, although it’s surely too soon into his comeback to be contending in best-of-five tennis.

Perhaps this is the year Alex de Minaur can reach a Grand Slam final.

The Australian hope has again hit the ground running in his homeland with some impressive displays but he’s struggled against the elite over the years – he’s won just two of his last 20 matches against top-10 players, which will put many off backing him at around 50/1.

Joao Fonseca

Instead, Joao Fonseca is worth a second look at the same price.

The teenager, who is a great shotmaker, stunned Andrey Rublev in the first round here 12 months ago and went on to win two ATP titles last season.

He still has a big upside and this could be the year he really steps up to challenge the very best.

Perhaps this event is too early but punters should aim to get in before that big breakthrough comes, as he won’t be going off at 50/1 for Slams forever.

Back Alcaraz to win the Australian Open at 7/4 with BetVictor

Sabalenka the one to beat

World number one Aryna Sabalenka is the best hardcourt player in the world and has been for some time. The Belarusian has shown remarkable consistency at Grand Slam level, reaching the final at the last six hardcourt Slams, winning four.

She’s often started her season well in Australia and this year has been no exception, Sabalenka hitting the ground running in Brisbane and posting a statement win over Madison Keys in a repeat of their Australian Open final of 12 months ago.

Madison Keys

Does get tight at times – as well as being edged out by Keys here, she also lost a close-fought French Open final last season – but this is undoubtedly her domain and it looks hard to oppose her. Some will do so by backing Iga Swiatek, who has also started 2026 well at the United Cup.

Sabalenka’s long-term rival has never reached the final in Melbourne though and the speedy GreenSet courts don’t aid the Pole, who gets less time to combat the big-hitters.

This tournament does have a reputation for surprise champions – Keys was a 50/1 shot last year – so perhaps it could pay to look further down the market.

Karolina Muchova

One player to catch the eye early in 2026 has been Karolina Muchova, who beat Elena Rybakina in Brisbane.

The variety in her game has always caused opponents problems; the issue has been getting on the court fully fit, with injuries having ravaged the Czech’s career. However, if she stays fit, she’s a match for anyone.

Muchova made the semis here in 2021 and has seen reached two US Open semi-finals, so going one step further is far from beyond her. 18/1 is an interesting price.

Elise Mertens

Finally, Elise Mertens could be of interest at 150/1. Having played in three WTA finals in 2025, she’s been impressive in Belgium’s United Cup run. Mertens is a former semi-finalist at Melbourne Park and is now back in the world’s top 20.

Her chances appear to be being written off but she’s more than capable of a deep run, especially if Thursday’s draw helps her out.

Click here to back Sabalenka for the Australian Open at 9/4 with bet365

British success in men’s doubles?

Great Britain has enjoyed great success in the doubles format in recent years and, heading into the Australian Open, five of the world’s top 10 are Brits.

One of them, Joe Salisbury, is taking a break from tennis, thus ending his partnership with Neal Skupski.

Lloyd Glasspool and partner Julian Cash are the world’s top two – they were mentioned on these pages as potential Wimbledon champions last summer and duly delivered.

However, it is the other Briton – Henry Patten – who could be the one to back in Melbourne.

He and Finnish partner Harri Heliovaara won this title 12 months ago and finished 2025 in spectacular fashion by claiming victory at the ATP Finals.

The duo also won Wimbledon in 2024 and look capable of adding another Grand Slam title to their CVs.

Favourites look strong in wheelchair events

It’s hard to look beyond the favourites in the wheelchair singles events at the Australian Open.

In the men’s event, Tokido Oda knows victory would see him hold all four Slam titles at the same time after he dominated the 2025 campaign. However, the only one he didn’t win was here in Melbourne where Briton Alfie Hewett reigned. Between them, the pair have won the last 12 Slams.

Another Japanese, Yui Kamiji, is the one to beat on the women’s side. Like Oda, she won three of the four Slams in 2025.

The potential fly in her ointment is Diede de Groot.

The 23-time Grand Slam singles champion returned to action last year after surgery and while she was unable to return to her previous heights, several months further down the line, she could contend.

Recent winners of the Australian Open

Men’s singles

Jannik Sinner has been the man they’ve all failed to beat at Melbourne in each of the past two years, defeating Alex Zverev and Daniil Medvedev in the finals. He enters the 2026 edition having won his last 14 matches at the venue.

Carlos Alcaraz is yet to make the final here and prior to Sinner’s recent successes, it was Novak Djokovic ruling the roost in Melbourne – he won the most recent of his 10 AO titles in 2023, 12 months after Rafael Nadal had rolled back the years to claim the crown.

Andy Murray made five finals here but no Briton has won the men’s title since Fred Perry in 1934. Jack Draper reached round four last year but is absent this time due to injury.

Women’s singles

On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka has been the dominant figure in recent times, winning the title in 2023 and 2024. However, after making the final again last season, her 20-match Melbourne win streak was ended by Madison Keys. Ash Barty won for the host nation shortly before retiring in 2022, while before that Naomi Osaka won two titles in three years.

Emma Raducanu, the leading British hope, is yet to go beyond round three. Johanna Konta was a surprise semi-finalist for GB in 2016 but the last British champion was Virginia Wade in 1972.

Briton Henry Patten and partner Harri Heliovarra are the defending men’s doubles champions, while Katerina Siniakova (for a third time) and Taylor Townsend won the women’s title in 2025. The mixed doubles went to the all-Aussie pairing of Olivia Gadecki and John Peers, while the wheelchair titles were won by Briton Alfie Hewett and Japan’s Yui Kamiji.

Raducanu the best of British?

Emma Raducanu has been the focus on much British attention ever since her shock victory at the 2021 US Open when only 18.

However, she’s struggled to replicate such a Grand Slam run; indeed she’s never been past round three in Melbourne – the same stage she reached at Wimbledon last season.

Her chances of doing so this year have been hindered by injury, the 23-year-old had her pre-season disrupted and spoke at the recent United Cup about how she was essentially now playing catch-up. It’s therefore hard to be confident about her chances of making the second week of this event for the first time.

Instead, perhaps Francesca Jones or Sonay Kartal can shine for Britain. Both made the quarter-finals in Auckland during the opening week of the season, Jones beating second seed Emma Navarro and Kartal only losing to top seed Elina Svitolina in a final-set tie-break.

On the men’s side, Jack Draper’s injury leaves Cam Norrie as Britain’s leading hope. He ended 2025 with a final appearance in Metz and is back in the world’s top 30. Jacob Fearnley is GB’s other direct entrant.

Australian Open betting markets explained

Match winner

Simple really – who will win the match? For example, will it be Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz?

Handicaps

Essentially a good way of making a supposed mis-match more competitive in betting terms. One of the players in the match is given a head start of a number of games (or sets); the other has this ‘handicap’ to make up.

For example, you could back Djokovic (+4.5) to beat Sinner on the game handicap. If Sinner wins five more games than Djokovic, the market is settled in his favour. If he doesn’t, Djokovic is the bet winner.

Total sets/total games

Here, you are betting on how many sets or games there will be in a specific match. A ‘line’ is set by the bookmaker and you have to decide whether there will be more or fewer than that figure, For example, the bookie sets the total games line at 34.5.

Your view is this will be a long, five-set match and you therefore believe there will be more games than this. In this case, you back the ‘over 34.5 games’ option. If you in the opposite camp and expect a quick match, go with ‘under’.

Set betting (scores)

What will the match score be in set terms? In a men’s match, there are six options – 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 to Player A and the same scorelines for Player B. On the women’s side, they play best-of-three sets so there are only four options for their matches.

Tournament winner (outrights)

Does what it says on the tin – a bet on which player will win the tournament overall. This market often provides an option to bet ‘each way’.

By choosing this option, you are placing two bets – one on your selection to win the tournament and the other for that player to reach the final (usually at half the odds).

How to bet on the Australian Open

Most bets these days are placed online and bookmaker websites make it easy for you to do so. It’s a simple process:

1. Log in or register with one of our recommended sites (ADD LINK)
2. Head to the tennis section via the website menus
3. Look for the Australian Open section
4. Browse the markets
5. Select the bet you want – it will appear in the betslip
6. Choose your stake, double-check everything and click ‘place bet’

How to watch the 2026 Australian Open

• Date & time: Monday, 12 Jan 2026 – Sunday, 1 Feb 2026
• Venue: Rod Laver Arena, Margaret Court Arena, John Cain Arena, Melbourne, Australia
• TV/Streaming: Eurosport, TNT Sports, Discovery+

About the author

Dean Etheridge

Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)

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