Aston Villa vs Leeds United predictions and betting tips – Are Emery’s side in title race?

Aston Villa were eliminated from the FA Cup last weekend, but they are still in an excellent position in the Premier League. Although the title will probably be out of reach, Unai Emery’s side are on track for Champions League qualification.

Leeds United are no pushovers, though. Can they get something from their trip to Villa Park this weekend?

• Aston Villa to win – 3/4 with bet365
• Under 2.5 goals – evens with bet365
• Morgan Rogers to score or assist – 10/11 with bet365

Aston Villa vs Leeds United odds

Find the latest Aston Villa vs Leeds United betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Aston Villa vs Leeds United predictions

The Premier League title race has been blown wide open after Arsenal could only manage draws away to Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

That event, together with Manchester City’s back-to-back victories over Liverpool and Fulham, lifted Pep Guardiola’s team back in contention.

At one stage the weekend before last, City were on course to fall nine points behind Arsenal with the same number of games played. Instead, the gap went down to four.

The Gunners edged five clear after that draw with Wolves, but City have a game in hand on the leaders.

What of Aston Villa? They have not been spoken of as potential challengers for a while, yet they too benefited from Arsenal’s untimely slip-ups at the Gtech Community Stadium and Molineux.

Villa beat Brighton & Hove Albion in that round of fixtures, so they find themselves eight points adrift of top spot with a game in hand.

With 12 matches remaining (11 for Arsenal), that gap will probably prove too large to overturn. 

But were Arsenal to lose to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, which is not inconceivable given their recent wobbles and the latter’s appointment of Igor Tudor, Villa would end the weekend closer to the summit of the standings – provided they take care of their own business.

At the same time, Unai Emery will have one eye on the teams behind his side. Chelsea and Manchester United are revitalised under new management, while Liverpool are hoping that their hard-fought 1-0 triumph over Sunderland last time out proves to be a turning point.

Villa have shown signs of fatigue of late. That is not surprising. Their squad was thinner than it might have been even before a spate of injuries hit. Villa have been competing on three fronts, although their participation in the FA Cup was ended by Newcastle United last weekend.

With fifth place almost certain to be a Champions League spot, Villa have an eight-point buffer above Liverpool in sixth. The bookies rate their chances of securing a qualification berth highly. 

Leeds United are also well positioned to achieve their principal goal for the campaign, namely avoiding relegation.

The job is not done yet, though. Leeds are six points clear of the drop zone, but with West Ham United on the up nothing can be taken for granted – especially as it looks like a relatively high points total will be required for survival this time around.

Aston Villa vs Leeds United betting tips

Top-five candidates Aston Villa host relegation battlers in the Premier League this weekend.

Villa to edge it

Leeds United transformed their season when they shifted to a three-man backline midway through a defeat by Manchester City in December.

Daniel Farke stuck with that shape in Leeds’s next game and his team have not looked back. Since he first used that system from the start of a match, only seven sides have collected more points than the Whites.

Leeds have been much harder to beat in that time, losing only two of their last 13 encounters in the league.

But Aston Villa have a knack for edging tight matches. There will not be much in it, but in our view the home team will squeeze over the line in this one.

Aston Villa to win at 3/4 with bet365

Goals on low side

Aston Villa’s overperformance of their expected goals has been a theme of the season, but it is interesting to note that they are now roughly tracking their attacking xG. 

The defensive side is where the discrepancy lies. Villa ‘should’ have conceded around 40 goals according to the underlying numbers, yet their backline has actually been breached just 26 times.

Villa’s recent matches have, for the most part, been low-scoring affairs. Each of their last six Premier League outings has featured under 2.5 goals.

With that in mind, this wager looks like fantastic value. Goals will probably be at a premium at Villa Park.

Under 2.5 goals at evens with bet365

Rogers to shine

Morgan Rogers has been integral to Aston Villa’s push for Champions League football this season.

The England international’s performances have put him in contention for a starting role at the World Cup, perhaps even at the expense of Phil Foden or Jude Bellingham.

With a combined 13 goals and assists to his name, only Erling Haaland, Igor Thiago, Bruno Fernandes and Joao Pedro have had a direct hand in more goals this season.

Expect Rogers to be influential when Leeds United come to town too.

Morgan Rogers to score or assist at 10/11 with bet365

Aston Villa vs Leeds United predicted lineups

• Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez; Bogarde, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Onana, Luiz; Sancho, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins.
• Leeds United expected lineup: Darlow; Bornauw, Bijol, Rodon; Justin, Longstaff, Ampadu, Gruev, Gudmundsson; Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin.

Where to watch Aston Villa vs Leeds United

• Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England.
• Date and time: Saturday 21st February, 3pm.
• How to watch: Not being shown live in the UK.

More Premier League predictions

We have plenty more Premier League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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