Zverev to Finish the Year as World Number One as Sinner Withdraws from the Rest of 2026

Alexander Zverev will become the men’s world number one at the end of 2026 after Jannik Sinner withdraws from the remaining tournaments due to an ongoing knee injury.

The knee issue first came to light after the pair’s Wimbledon final. During a celebratory holiday, Sinner visited a knee expert and discovered he had extra-articular tendinopathy and iliotibial band syndrome (ITBS).

The injury stems from an overload of high-intensity movement, visible in the movement of the current world number one, who often slides across the court and retrieves low-bouncing balls in a squatting position.

Why will Zverev finish the year as number one?

The German will finish 2026 as the ATP’s top player due to the number of points Sinner will have to forfeit. Accumulated with the successful year Zverev has had, capturing two slams after shortcomings in past Grand Slam events.

Sinner is currently on 10950 ranking points, with Zverev sitting on 9680. The Italian has 3350 points he won’t defend, including 2500 in the Paris Masters and ATP Finals.

This loss of points alone will leave him on 7600 going into the 2027 season.

Zverev, on the other hand, has 1080 points left to defend. If Zverev were to lose all the points acquired from Shanghai, Vienna, Paris and the ATP Finals, he would finish the season on 8600.

A 1000-point gap between the players, leaving Zverev with a healthy margin going into 2027 and the Australian Open.

Could Alcaraz play a significant factor?

Carlos Alcaraz made his grand return at the US Open and yesterday retained his Tokyo Open title, defeating Jiri Lehecka in straight sets.

The Spaniard has 1010 points to defend but, more significantly, none to defend in Shanghai and only 10 to defend at the Paris Masters. This comes after a shock first-round exit to British player Cameron Norrie last year.

Alcaraz has looked better than he was pre-injury and is undoubtedly a favourite to win in Shanghai and Paris. There’s also a high probability he plays in Vienna, a competition he chose not to participate in last year.

If the career slam holder wins those three tournaments, he would gain 2500 points heading into the ATP Finals. However, the Finals is where Alcaraz would fall short; he has a significant number of points to defend from Turin.

Zverev would finish the year as number one regardless of Alcaraz’s success.

An Achievement Long in the making for Zverev?

Back in 2022, Zverev saw his dream shatter at Roland Garros after a ligament tear in his right ankle against Rafa Nadal.

During the second set of his semi-final bout, Zverev tripped at the baseline, severing his ligament after a gruelling three-hour match.

Zverev was on form to claim the world number two spot regardless of the match’s outcome, with number one in sight if he had won the Slam.

Daniil Medvedev was the world number one at the time, but his form had already begun to take a drop. He also needed to defend his US Open points alongside other points at the American Hard-Court Swing that year.

Zverev had very few points to defend on both grass and hard court, meaning he would’ve become world number one in the Summer of 2022.

Especially after Medvedev’s title defence in New York ended in the fourth round to Nick Kyrgios. He lost 1820 points and dropped below eventual 2022 ATP world number one Alcaraz.

Alcaraz claimed his maiden Grand Slam at the US Open alongside two Masters 1000 titles in Miami and Madrid.

Alcaraz’s explosion onto the ATP Tour saw him reach 6820 points. If Zverev had stayed healthy, he would’ve needed 4120 points in the six remaining months of the calendar after Roland Garros. A plausible figure to reach.

So this will feel like a well-deserved moment for the German, who will finally fulfil potential that he never quite grasped. Mainly because Sinner and Alcaraz are remarkably stronger than any players we’ve witnessed since Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer.

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