UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan continues with Zach Reese against Mickey Gall in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 123 odds series for our Reese-Gall prediction and pick.
Zach Reese (10-4) has endured consecutive defeats in 2026, dropping a split decision to Michel Pereira before Ryan Gandra stopped him in July. His previous submission win over Jackson McVey still clearly illustrates his considerable offensive upside despite recent setbacks, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Mickey Gall.
Mickey Gall (7-7) returns after losing a unanimous decision to Bassil Hafez and suffering a first-round knockout against Ramiz Brahimaj in 2024. Those results extended his losing streak to four, and he now moves from welterweight to challenging middleweight as he comes into his fight this weekend against Zach Reese.
UFC Vegas 123 odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 123 Odds: Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall
Zach Reese: -440
Mickey Gall: +340
Over 1.5 rounds: +135
Under 1.5 rounds: -175
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Zach Reese Will Win
Zach Reese should win by making Gall defend powerful striking combinations before the returning veteran can establish his preferred grappling. His best approach is aggressive but organized, attacking behind straight punches and keeping his stance ready to defend level changes.
Gall's move from welterweight to middleweight introduces another challenge against an opponent already accustomed to competing against naturally larger opposition. Reese should exploit that adjustment through body work and physical pressure rather than assuming size alone guarantees an easy victory here.
The most important tactical responsibility is refusing unnecessary grappling exchanges after hurting Gall or landing a clean combination at distance. Reese can win standing without testing every submission position, making patience after successful offense more valuable than an indiscriminate rush.
Gall's recent knockout loss to Ramiz Brahimaj offers a clear reminder that his defensive vulnerabilities can become decisive very quickly. Reese should look for similar opportunities through layered combinations, forcing Gall to cover high before changing the target to his body.
If Gall begins reaching desperately for contact, Reese can frame, separate, and resume striking instead of accepting prolonged clinch battles. Expect the natural middleweight's pressure and finishing power to produce an early stoppage, provided he respects the submission threat throughout.
Why Mickey Gall Will Win
Mickey Gall's upset route requires transforming Reese's aggression into a grappling opportunity before the larger fighter establishes his striking rhythm. He should avoid extended exchanges, close distance behind a protected entry, and immediately work toward a body lock or takedown.
Gall's six professional submission victories all came by rear-naked choke, making back exposure the central danger Reese must avoid here. The underdog does not need to dominate every phase if one hurried escape or overcommitted scramble creates his preferred finishing position.
Reese can become vulnerable if he attacks too recklessly and allows his upper body to move ahead of his hips. Gall should use those moments to change levels, force a scramble, and make the favorite solve technical problems under pressure.
Article Continues BelowThe key is prioritizing control before chasing a choke, because losing position could return Gall to the most dangerous exchanges. A patient ride, tight hooks, and persistent hand fighting would give him a better chance than immediately squeezing an incomplete submission.
Moving up also means Gall can approach the fight without the same welterweight cut, although that does not eliminate size disadvantages. Expect his winning scenario to involve surviving the opening attack and capitalizing on one costly grappling mistake for a submission.
Final Reese-Gall Prediction & Pick
Zach Reese is the selection because he should have more opportunities to create meaningful offense before Gall can establish the specific grappling positions his upset requires. The favorite still needs discipline, because unnecessary scrambles would invite the one area where Gall can convert a brief opening into an immediate and decisive finish.
Reese should begin with straight punches and body attacks, forcing Gall to react defensively before closing distance whenever the veteran becomes trapped near the cage. Crucially, he does not need to follow every knockdown into guard or pursue a submission when maintaining separation would preserve his clearest and most reliable advantage.
Gall's submission threat deserves respect, but the combination of his extended absence and a difficult divisional move makes sustained defensive success a demanding proposition here. Expect Reese to land the more damaging early combinations and force a first-round stoppage, with the under fitting a contest likely to produce decisive action quickly.
Final Zach Reese-Mickey Gall Prediction & Pick: Zach Reese (-440), UNDER 1.5 rounds (-175).