The Brewers and Rays have spent all season running wild. With a World Series title on the line, neither figures to slow down now.
Speed could be one of the defining factors of this year’s Fall Classic. The Brewers are MLB’s fastest team, ranking first in both average Sprint Speed and total runs clocked at the elite threshold of 30 ft/sec or faster (aka a “bolt”) in the regular season. The Rays aren’t as fast on average, but they recorded the second-most bolts behind Milwaukee.
That speed has translated into plenty of stolen bases for both clubs. The Rays tied for second in the Majors with 164 steals during the regular season, while the Brewers ranked fifth with 162.
They've continued to run aggressively in October, too. Tampa Bay has stolen 11 bases without being caught over its nine playoff games. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has 10 steals on 12 attempts in eight games.
With the Fall Classic set to get underway on Friday, here’s a look at the historical context of this matchup, the baserunners to watch and which club is better equipped to slow down the opposing running game.
A rare World Series matchup
Few World Series teams in recent memory have run as much as these two. In fact, only one pennant winner in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) has produced more regular season stolen bases than these Rays and Brewers did.
Most stolen bases by a pennant winner, Wild Card Era
1. 2023 D-backs: 166
2. 2026 Rays: 164
3. 2026 Brewers: 162
4. 2001 Yankees: 161
5-T. 2014 Royals: 153
5-T. 1998 Yankees: 153
A Fall Classic pairing between two prolific base-stealing teams such as these is rarer still. This is just the fourth time in the Divisional Era (since 1969) that two of the top five teams in stolen bases have played in that year's World Series.
It hasn’t happened since 2008, when a Rays team that led the Majors in steals (142) squared off with the Phillies, who ranked fourth (136). Although that Fall Classic went only five games, the two teams combined for 14 steals -- the most in a World Series this century.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Brewers and Rays challenge that mark in 2026.
Baserunners to watch
The Rays’ running attack revolves around Chandler Simpson, whose extreme offensive profile makes him unlike almost any other player in the sport today. Simpson has yet to homer in his career and rarely walks, but he batted .306 while leading MLB in infield hits (42) and the American League in steals (46) in 2026. He’s added three more steals in the playoffs.
Taylor Walls (21) and Cedric Mullins (21) also reached the 20-steal plateau for the Rays in 2026, while Richie Palacios and Jonny DeLuca stole 17 bags apiece. Victor Mesa Jr. chipped in nine steals in 79 games for the Rays during the regular season. Those five have combined for eight steals this October.
The Brewers have no single speed threat like Simpson, but there’s more balance on Milwaukee’s side. While Tampa Bay’s lineup includes a number of plodders who rarely run, such as Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz, seven Brewers stole at least 11 bases this season. David Hamilton led the way with 30 stolen bases over 121 games, and he has gone 3-for-3 in steals this October despite starting only three of Milwaukee’s eight games.
Jackson Chourio hasn’t had many opportunities to run while reaching base at a .211 clip in these playoffs, but his base-stealing bona fides are well established on the heels of three straight seasons with 20-plus stolen bases. Keep an eye on rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt, too. He stole 19 bases over 74 games after making his MLB debut in June.
Controlling the running game
With speed on both sides, the question becomes which team can keep it in check, and the Brewers did a much better job of that in 2026. Milwaukee allowed the second-fewest steals (71) in the Majors during the regular season, while Tampa Bay yielded the sixth most (131).
At first glance, the Brewers seem to hold a huge advantage on the catching front. William Contreras registered a caught-stealing rate of 34% in 2026, compared to just 15.9% for Liam Hicks. But catchers are only partially responsible for preventing steals, and Statcast's catcher throwing metric actually rated the two quite similarly based on how they did with the opportunities they saw.
It was a different story on the mound. The Brewers’ pitching staff has been one of MLB’s best at preventing steals this year. Rays pitchers, meanwhile, rank among the worst.
Net bases prevented by pitchers, 2026 regular season + postseason
Expresses the skill of pitchers at preventing baserunners from advancing on the bases, via steal attempts or pickoffs/balks
1. Cubs: +31
2. Royals: +27
3. Yankees: +27
4. Mets: +25
5-T. Brewers: +21
5-T. Nationals: +21
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28. Rays: -28
29. Marlins: -36
30. Blue Jays: -48
That gap shows up in the Game 1 starting pitching matchup between Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski and Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen. The hard-throwing Miz has proven incredibly difficult to steal against, while Rasmussen is one of the easiest pitchers to run on. Only three pitchers had more steals against them than Rasmussen's 23.
Then again, Rasmussen has done well to keep the bases clean this October. He’s allowed only 13 hits and three walks en route to a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings.
If either pitching staff is going to prevent this World Series from turning into a track meet, that's the surest way to do it. After all, runners can’t steal if they don’t get on base.