The Dodgers are down in the NLCS, and pondering the previously unthinkable
The NLCS now shifts to the West Coast, after the Milwaukee Brewers took the first two games of the series at home, pushing the Los Angeles Dodgers into unfamiliar territory as they trail two games to none in the series.
But more unfamiliar territory could follow.
Benching superstar Shohei Ohtani.
The slugger continues to struggle at the plate, and Ohtani endured an 0-for-4 night with two strikeouts on Monday after going 1-for-3 with a single in Game 1. Ohtani entered the NLCS having gone just 2-for-13 against the Atlanta Braves, and now sits at 3-for-20 this postseason with a trio of singles, along with three walks.
That is good for a slash line of .150/.261/.411.
Speaking after the game, manager Dave Roberts had this to say about the team’s superstar, as quoted by The Athletic:
“Yeah, I mean, obviously it hasn’t been good. He doesn’t feel great. I think for me, it’s having a conversation with him tomorrow, kind of try to figure out what’s best for him, what’s best for us. He certainly has earned that conversation and deserves it.
“I’ll have (that conversation) with him tomorrow.”
Our own Eric Stephen, who “has practice in Robertsese” as he described it, declared early Tuesday morning “that means Ohtani won’t be starting in Game 3 on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium.”
How did we get here, with the Dodgers contemplating sitting none other than Shohei Ohtani in a must-win playoff game?
Ohtani has been dealing with several injuries this season, starting with a left knee issue which caused him to miss some starts on the bump in the summer, and to miss the All-Star Game together as he sought treatment for the knee ailment.
But a right bicep issue followed, and he was eventually put on the IL in September with that issue, and the team shut him down as a pitcher on September 7.
Yet, Ohtani’s performance at the plate had begun to dip well before September. he began the year hot at the dish, slashing .293/.403/.549 with 22 home runs ahead of the All-Star break.
Over the second half of the season, Ohtani slashed just .245/.325/.447 with eight home runs. And when you dive into those numbers a bit more, the dip in performance looks even steeper. After slashing .273/.330/.557 in July, with six home runs, he slashed .241/.322/.472 in August, with six more homers.
Over eight regular season games in September and October, he slashed just .200/.333/.233, without a home run. His last homer came back in the middle of August, a blast against the Colorado Rockies on August 18. In that three game series at Coors Field, Ohtani went 5-for-14 with three home runs and five RBI.
However, since that game Ohtani has gone 14-for-90 without a home run, and with just a single RBI. That is good for an average of .156, and an OPS under .490.
Digging into Ohtani’s numbers a little more, and watching his at-bats, you can see the struggles at the plate. His swing speed has dipped — according to data from FanGraphs his bat speed on line drives is 74.8 miles per hour, down from 76.0 last year and a high of 77.7 during the 2023 season — as has his exit velocity. After averaging an EV of 93.3 mph this season, his lone hit in the NLCS came off the bat at just 74 mph:
And his approach on this single helps tell another part of the story.
As noted by The Athletic, Ohtani has tried to shorten his swing, and take balls to the opposite field rather than trying to pull or drive balls to the right side. That is because he’s struggled to catch up to fastballs and pull them, as you can see on this strikeout from the first inning Monday night, when he swings through a 95-mph four-seam fastball up in the zone from Logan Henderson:
That approach leads to moments like this from Monday night, when Ohtani tries to go the other way on a ball off the plate and looks … unlike the Ohtani we are used to seeing:
At the start of that at-bat? Ohtani actually showed bunt, something else we are not used to seeing from the slugger.
Speaking ahead of the NLDS Ohtani, through team interpreter Will Ireton, had this to say about his swing:
“It feels really good overall. I do feel like my swing is in a better place, feels smooth, and just a little tweaks here and there, and I’ll be ready for tomorrow.”
And on the injuries:
“I haven’t been able to get a good grasp of the root cause of all this. I think that process is going to happen during the off-season when I’m going to have a little bit more time to be able to address it. But as of now, it’s something I’m just going to have to manage.”
However, he also talked about “transparency,” regarding how he is feeling physically:
“ I think the discussion became more about like what’s best for the team. Is it something that I can play through, and if that’s best for the team, sure. But I think we both came to an understanding where the decision to be on the IL came from the fact that it’s probably best for the team for me to recover and be able to focus on the postseason.”
And that might be the focus of the upcoming discussion with Roberts. As noted by Stephen early Tuesday morning, there’s “been an open question of how forthcoming Ohtani has been with his injuries as well.” But the player we have seen so far this postseason has been struggling at the plate, and with the Dodgers facing a two-game hole in the series, that could lead to a difficult decision for Roberts and the rest of the organization.
If Ohtani is indeed out of the lineup to start Game 3, Josue De Paula is likely the “top candidate” to replace him, according to The Athletic. De Paula, who was called up from Double-A Tulsa in mid-September, went 10-for-31 with a home run in limited action for the Dodgers, slashing .323/.500/.581. That was good enough for the team to add him to the postseason roster and he has a pair of walks in three plate appearances, including one on Sunday night in Game 1.
The Dodgers are set to meet the media later today during the off day before Wednesday’s pivotal Game 3.
Meaning we might learn more about Ohtani’s status in a few hours.