Heavy is the head that wears the crown.
It has been true from Henry IV to anyone who has gotten one of those paper ones from Burger King, and it's certainly an accurate depiction of life at the top of the college football landscape this season.
Indiana, the defending national champion, lost at home and, amid offensive woes, has narrowly escaped disaster against unranked foes the past two weeks.
Ohio State, the preseason No. 1, has already racked up a pair of losses, came within inches of a third against Indiana and will likely play the rest of the season without its starting quarterback.
Texas, which beat the Buckeyes to take over the No. 1 spot, proceeded to lose back-to-back games to unranked opponents (though Florida has since climbed back into the Top 25 on the strength of the edible arrangements the SEC sent to every CFP committee member).
Georgia followed, but even the mighty Dawgs were no match for the curse of No. 1. They lost between the hedges to unranked Auburn.
That left Miami, which went to overtime against a team that fired its coach a week later (Florida State), then escaped Bill Belichick's unranked North Carolina by the skin of its teeth a week later.
From 2014 through 2025, teams ranked 1 or 2 in the AP poll had an .888 winning percentage in the regular season, and last year, they lost a grand total of two games.
With four weeks left to play in this regular season, Nos. 1 and 2 have already lost six times.
There's less turnover at the average Wendy's drive-thru than at the top of the college football rankings this year.
All of which brings us to Week 10, which could be either another bloodbath for the sport's top teams or the moment in which the cream rises to the top.
Current No. 1 Miami heads to South Bend for a showdown with Notre Dame. The rivalry is one of the most significant of the past half-century in college football, dating to the Catholics vs. Convicts, but this year's game comes with some fresh wounds. A year ago, Miami knocked off Notre Dame in the opener, and though the Irish spent all of November ranked well ahead of the Canes and in line for a playoff berth, the committee bumped up Miami and dropped the Domers in its final rankings despite neither team playing a game.
That set off a series of emotional reactions, as Notre Dame blew off a bowl game, unfollowed Jim Phillips on Instagram and asked to speak to the manager several times.
Notre Dame spent plenty of time this offseason hyping the game, promising revenge, but it was the committee once again that saw a simmering fire and opened up a fire hose worth of new fuel, putting the Irish at No. 11 in its first set of rankings. The baffling decision -- Notre Dame is No. 1 in ESPN's FPI metric and No. 4 in the AP poll -- means that a loss by the Irish would be a potentially fatal blow for a playoff bid this year, too.
Meanwhile, Miami has a lot to prove, too. Its best win came vs. Wake Forest, and last week Billy Edwards Jr. -- the unseasoned oatmeal of college QBs -- carved up the Canes' secondary like a Thanksgiving turkey. In the aftermath, Mario Cristobal admitted there is a lot of work to be done but given the myriad injuries Miami has suffered in the back end of its defense, there are big questions as to how much this unit can improve.
But if the current No. 1 is in jeopardy in South Bend, the line of teams waiting to wear the crown faces its own do-or-die moments in Week 10.
No. 2 Georgia travels to Oxford, Mississippi, for a rematch of last year's Sugar Bowl vs. Ole Miss, hoping Glenn Schumann's defense can finally figure out how to contain Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels are coming off a dominant win over Auburn, but it has been a bit of a roller coaster for the Rebels, who have alternated impressive wins with frustrating losses. Georgia, meanwhile, has been held to less than 28 points in three straight games for the first time since 2019, just in time for fans to perform their annual ritual of taking down their Halloween decorations and putting up their "Fire Mike Bobo" season decorations.
No. 3 Utah hosts No. 9 BYU for an early brunch in Salt Lake City. The 10 a.m. local kickoff time is an especially egregious slap in the face for two fanbases primarily made up of folks whose religion forbids coffee, but the stakes couldn't be higher. Utah's résumé largely comes down to an ugly home win over Houston and a bunch of snoozers. BYU has one of the biggest victories of the season against Notre Dame but has struggled mightily the past two weeks against lackluster opponents UCF (a 39-31 loss) and Arizona State (a 27-20 win). And all of that comes against the backdrop of the Big 12's continuing circus of officiating in every Cougars game. This week, all video reviews will be accompanied by the theme song from "Benny Hill."
Alabama was gifted the No. 5 ranking by the committee based on a little-known codicil in the College Football Playoff constitution known as the "But Paaaawwwwwlllll" Principle, in which the Tide always get the benefit of the doubt in all debates over rankings or who gets the fries at the bottom of a Five Guys bag. Bama faces Lane Kiffin and No. 14 LSU, whom the committee seemed to view with as much enthusiasm as Sankey views a new Kiffin social media post. A home loss for the Bayou Bengals will probably be the end of their playoff hopes, while a third loss for Alabama could knock the Tide all the way down to No. 7 in the rankings next week.
The SEC's biggest surprise, No. 6 Kentucky, gets another shot to burnish its résumé, too. While the rest of the SEC was rewarded for big wins, the committee slotted UK behind UGA and Bama despite a superior strength of record. Given Alabama's emphatic second half in a win over Kentucky, there's at least some rationale for the ranking, but if the Wildcats can go on the road and topple a team that beat the Tide head-to-head, that would be a huge résumé booster and add another stop on the SEC's "wheel of destiny" standings.
No. 7 Texas goes to No. 16 Missouri in another matchup of two-loss SEC teams, too, giving Arch Manning another chance to convince the country he's terrible only to engineer a 97-yard game-winning drive that undermines 57 minutes of hot takes.
Add it all up and Week 10 has the makings of the most pivotal action of the season. It could be the Saturday in which the true powers announce their presence with authority, stake out the high ground in the race for a national title and finally add a semblance of stability to the top of the standings. Or it could follow the season's trend of chaos and controversy and provide us with the most nonsensical shifts in power since the final season of "Game of Thrones."
Either way, when the dust settles, the college football landscape is going to look a lot different.
Jump to:
Top games | Under the radar
Upset alert | Heisman five
Power rankings | Two-minute drill
The best of the rest of Week 10
The preseason No. 1 and No. 2 teams will face off in Columbus this week, but it won't be with the same cache most pundits envisioned in August.
Ohio State blew a big lead to Texas, narrowly escaped Indiana, lost its QB (likely for the year) and then lost by two scores to a reeling USC.
Oregon nearly lost to Boise State, got thumped by Oklahoma State and Illinois (both unranked now) and lost a heartbreaker to UCLA.
So now, we get what might have been the marquee matchup of 2026 happening as an undercard between two teams with five combined losses and flickering playoff hopes, both without their star quarterbacks.
Indeed, Dan Lanning surely had to pick up his phone sometime Tuesday evening to see his Ducks had been ranked in the committee's top 25 and assumed it was a prank. Losing twice to unranked teams, starting three QBs and firing your offensive coordinator isn't a typical top-25 résumé.
Still, there's ample talent remaining on both sidelines and plenty at stake. A loss for either will likely be the nail in their playoff coffin, but a win could help shift the narratives that have soured dramatically since September.
The key to the game might be Dylan Raiola, who finally seems to be living up to the promise of his recruiting profile. After being benched following a brutal performance against UCLA, Raiola has been solid the past three games, including throwing for 336 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Northwestern last week. Ohio State will need to lean on its run game as a counter. Bo Jackson ran for a season-high 121 yards in the loss to USC in Week 9.
Two of the ACC's three unranked 6-2 teams face off in Dallas. This is a critical stretch for SMU, which hosts No. 16 Wake Forest next week. The Mustangs still have a shot at making the ACC title game if they win out, but last week's late loss to Syracuse stings. Still, it's not exactly a surprise. SMU has been tied or ahead in the fourth quarter of eight of its past nine losses.
Fun fact: There are four power-conference teams that have not trailed by more than one score all season. No. 1 Miami, No. 8 UCLA, No. 9 BYU (combined 23-1) and ... Michigan! The Wolverines are either 5-3 or 4-4 (depending on how many seconds you think are in a regulation football game), and all but a 52-17 blowout of UTEP have been decided by a touchdown or less, including last week's 28-21 victory over Rutgers. Michigan State hasn't shown much more life offensively, so this one could look much the same, but the good news for Wolverines fans is this: A woeful offense and a mediocre season are exactly the ingredients necessary to deliver a particularly painful loss to Ohio State to end the regular season.
Under-the-radar games
Here's the list of all the players over the past 20 years who have racked up 900 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and scored 19 or more touchdowns in their first eight games of a season:
That's the whole list.
Sheppard was amazing last week against Boston College with 129 yards of offense and five rushing scores. Defenses have tried to stop him by any means necessary, but it's hard to find answers for a player who can do just about anything. In fact, here's another stat: Sheppard is the only power-conference player since 2011 (Wisconsin's Montee Ball) with 14 rushing touchdowns, four receiving touchdowns and a passing touchdown in a season -- and he has done it in just eight games.
Penn State opened the season at No. 18 in the country. Washington was No. 17. They're a combined 3-7 vs. Power 4 opponents this year, with two of those wins coming against Purdue. So, the voters might have gotten that one wrong. The Huskies are 2-0 with Elijah Brown at QB, despite their offensive averaging almost exactly the same yards per play, success rate and explosive rates as it did under Demond Williams Jr. Washington's offense has been one long rom-com: Team finds star QB. Star QB tries to leave for a richer team. Team woos star QB back by standing outside his window holding up a boom box playing Peter Gabriel (and also offering a boatload of NIL money). Team realizes it doesn't actually need the star QB after all. Backup QB takes off glasses and suddenly the team realizes its true love has been right there all along.
Clemson finally figured out the key to getting its offense going last week: Play against Florida State's defense. Sadly, Dabo Swinney's request to do that every week was denied by the ACC, forcing Clemson to file another lawsuit against the league. Regardless, the Tigers now turn their attention to a resurgent Syracuse, which has found life after a 2-4 start with a healthy Steve Angeli at QB and freshman Calvin Russell III (17 catches, two TDs and a game-winning 2-point conversion in the past three weeks) at receiver. After taking Louisville to the wire three weeks ago, the Orange have knocked off North Carolina and SMU in back-to-back weeks. Syracuse has played seven FBS games and all but one were decided by a touchdown or less (a 27-13 loss to Pitt).
Upset alert
UCLA (at Minnesota)
Despite its 8-0 record, UCLA was ranked eighth in the committee's first top 25. Why? Well, look at who the Bruins have played. A two-point win over Oregon in the Ducks' first game after Dante Moore's injury and a 17-7 win over a Wisconsin team that looks like it just ate a wheel of cheese before each offensive drive are the only two games UCLA has played against a top-75 team by FPI. Moreover, UCLA's seven passing touchdowns this year are the fewest by an 8-0 power-conference team since 2012 Notre Dame. That's either a recipe for disaster against a more explosive opponent or UCLA will end up playing for a national championship and honoring Wayne Knight's fake girlfriend he met on MySpace.
Florida (vs. Oklahoma)
Perhaps the biggest shocker of this season is that somehow Oklahoma's offense wouldn't be the unit that provided the Sooners' most embarrassing play of the year.
Oh no 😟 https://t.co/AExNaEelLK
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 1, 2026
After the blowout loss to South Carolina, Brent Venables fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in hopes of sparking something for the Sooners. Venables weighed his options between handing the offense over to Jason Witten or putting a chef's hat on one of his other assistants and hoping a super smart rodent will call plays in some sort of "Ratatouille" situation, allowing the Sooners to suddenly become a scoring machine. He opted for the more ridiculous option and turned to Witten.
UTSA couldn't crack the committee's top 25, but its No. 22 strength of record should have it well within striking distance of a playoff spot should Boise State slip again this season. But that requires UTSA to keep winning, too, and this week's trip to FAU will be no easy task. The Owls are 4-0 at home this year, and QB Caden Veltkamp is fifth nationally with 23 touchdown passes and fourth with 2,536 passing yards.
Heisman five
With just over a month to go before we officially hand out the hardware, these are the players making the strongest push for the 2026 Heisman Trophy.
1. Miami QB Darian Mensah
The Canes got just seven possessions last week against North Carolina, but Mensah made the most of them, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns. What was most impressive, however, was Mensah's patience against the Heels, who bracketed Malachi Toney with double coverage for most of the game. Mensah never put the ball in harm's way but rather chiseled away at the UNC defense in a methodical, "death by 1,000 cuts" march. For the season, he has taken 471 snaps and turned the ball over once. He's the first QB since 2018 Tua Tagovailoa with 25 passing touchdowns and one or fewer interceptions through eight games, which would seem impressive anywhere except Miami, where the fans have seen too many Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins games to appreciate the comparison.
2. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
The Julian Sayin injury was clearly a problem for Ohio State in its loss to USC, but no one can say Smith didn't do his part to help. He finished with 10 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown -- his third double-digit catch game of the season.
3. Miami WR Malachi Toney
Toney had seven catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns in the win over North Carolina, and he had two more astonishing near catches, including one along the sideline that was ruled incomplete after the ball shifted in his hands as he hit the ground out of bounds. At some point, Miami needs to assemble a highlight reel of all Toney's ridiculous catches that were either overturned on review or called back because of penalties in a "director's cut" version of a Heisman season. It's like Zach Snyder's "Justice League" except with quality action sequences.
4. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr
Carr threw for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Navy last week, but it'll be his performance Saturday against Miami that's likely to determine whether he's a real threat to win the Heisman or just a periphery candidate stacking his numbers against mediocre competition. Carr has played just four ranked Power 4 opponents in his career. His numbers in those games: 50.8 QBR, 60% completions, four TD passes, three picks.
5. Wake Forest QB Gio Lopez
Like Mensah, Lopez is off to a nearly mistake-free start to the season. But here's the wild thing: In the past 20 seasons, only 15 FBS quarterbacks have opened a season with at least 17 total touchdowns and one or zero turnovers through eight games. Only one has done it twice -- Lopez. In 2024, he had 17 TDs and one interception at South Alabama. This year, he has 24 touchdowns and one pick at Wake Forest. In between, he spent a year at North Carolina. Lopez's career is basically the same as if Al Pacino had made "Jack and Jill" in between "Godfather" and "Godfather II."
Post-week 9 power rankings
1. College kickers
2. Utah
3. Feisty South Carolina
Wow, there are a lot of people in this Spirit Halloween! https://t.co/3kEYxA5Jwo
— South Carolina Football (@GamecockFB) November 1, 2026
4. Bill Belichick channeling his emotions after a bad breakup into beating Miami
5. Ole Miss
6. Extensions for coaches rumored to be interested in the Florida State job
7. Wake Forest again
8. Internal joy
9. An extra hour of sleep following great Pac-12 After Dark games
10. Indoor cocktail parties
Unranked: External applause; correctly spelling coaches' names; American Conference officials' tackling technique; healthy Big Ten QBs; the AP poll; Oklahoma
Two-minute drill
The thing about college football is, with just 12 games in a season, a lot of quirky things can happen as a result of a ridiculously small sample size. Play enough games, though, and eventually the cream rises to the top, the flukes even out and the near misses get offset by the victory-from-the-jaws-of-defeat wins. Unless, of course, you're Nebraska.
This season, the Huskers have lost three games by a grand total of 13 points. Less than two touchdowns is the difference between a near certain playoff team with wins over Indiana and Oregon and ... this. And even that doesn't really capture how close the Huskers have come. In those three losses, they've trailed for an average of 2 minutes, 53 seconds.
But fluky things happen in a small sample size, right?
Unfortunately for Nebraska, the misery is no fluke. Go back a full decade to the 2017 season, and Nebraska is 16-43 in one-score games. Those 43 losses are nine more than any other FBS team -- and that next-closest team is Arkansas, a football program whose fans have used the phrase, "In the good old days under Houston Nutt." Nebraska's luck isn't just bad -- it's impossible.
There are theories, of course. Subpar coaching has cost the team valuable points in crucial moments. QB play has been below average. Tom Osborne met the devil at a crossroads outside Omaha and sold the program's soul in exchange for Tommy Frazier. But none quite explain how these losses keep happening, year after year, coach after coach.
There is only this: All things must pass, and Nebraska, too, will one day escape from this wicked curse. Perhaps it will be against Illinois this week. Perhaps not until Scott Frost is thrown into the abyss. But someday, the football gods will smile on Nebraska, and its wish will be granted: no more close losses. Only 20-point blowouts.
Florida State at Boston College
Last week, fans fundraised to have a plane fly over Doak Campbell Stadium with a sign imploring the school to fire Mike Norvell. Only, they spelled Norvell's name wrong. And that about sums up the state of FSU football.
That's it. I've seen enough. It's time for Cathy Novell from accounting to get her walking papers. Make it happen, Peter Collins. These audits of expense reports have gone on long enough. https://t.co/Cpn6wNmQdc
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 1, 2026
How did we get here?
Well, perhaps "here" is actually the norm, not the aberration. Since 2001, Florida State has had 13 seasons with five or more losses and 12 seasons with nine or more wins.
What if Norvell's fate was always going to look like this, and the surprise was the 19-game winning streak he had in the middle of a tenure in which he was otherwise 22-39. Set aside that stretch from the midpoint of 2022 through the now infamous viewing of FSU's playoff snub in 2023, the Seminoles are 25-53 over the past decade against Power 4/5 opponents under three different head coaches. That's a .321 winning percentage. That's worse than Syracuse, Purdue or this week's opponent, Boston College, in the same span. In fact, only Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Kansas, Colorado and Maryland have worse marks among teams which have been in power leagues since 2017.
It would be easy enough to blame Norvell for the current status of FSU. Perhaps instead he ought to be credited for dragging the Seminoles from a decade-long mess just long enough to see daylight before the playoff committee slammed the door in his face.
In this week's Anger Index, we might have overlooked one team that certainly should be plenty outraged about the committee's rankings: Northwestern. There are four power-conference teams 6-2 or better that were left out of the committee's top 25. Three are in the ACC, making them the football equivalent to the sound of a dog whistle -- technically there, but imperceptible to committee members. The other? Northwestern. Moreover, the Wildcats' two losses are both on the road by a combined 14 points to two ranked teams -- Indiana and Oregon. This week's opponent, Iowa, is also 6-2 -- but it was blown out by Ohio State and lost to unranked Minnesota. Iowa's résumé seems to be based mostly off beating then-No. 18 Michigan on a last-second touchdown. Yet, the Hawkeyes came in at No. 19. Northwestern gets a chance to correct the record this week as it hosts Iowa, testing Chip Kelly's offensive proficiency against the Hawkeyes' ability to play such a plodding, monotonous brand of offense that pediatricians recommend it to help soothe teething babies.
Bill Belichick returns to New England, where his Tar Heels -- fresh off a near-upset of No. 1 Miami -- can take another step toward bowl eligibility by beating UConn. More importantly for Belichick, this road trip significantly shortens his daily commute to toilet paper Robert Kraft's house.
Mike Elko has to be furious with the playoff committee right now. Texas A&M is 4-4, sure. And yes, its offense is the equivalent of a newborn deer learning to walk but look at those quality losses! A&M lost by 10 to No. 6 Kentucky. It lost on the road to No. 14 LSU and No. 18 Missouri. It hung tough in an 11-point defeat against No. 5 Alabama. No other team in the country can claim a résumé with so many elite losses. Not even this week's opponent, No. 21 South Carolina, comes close. A&M's strength of schedule is a robust 16th nationally, according to ESPN, ahead of Tennessee, Indiana and Georgia. If that's not enough to get the Aggies into playoff contention, then maybe a 24-team playoff isn't big enough.
The difference for Texas Tech between last week's win over No. 22 Arizona and the prior week's loss to unranked Cincinnati was the run defense. Against the Bearcats, Texas Tech allowed 255 yards on the ground. Last week, Arizona tallied ... 12. This week, the Red Raiders will face their biggest rushing challenge to date against West Virginia, where QB Michael Hawkins Jr. is tied for the Power 4 lead in total touchdowns with 27 and rushing touchdowns with 16.
Since returning from injury two weeks ago, Delaware QB Nick Minicucci has thrown for 639 yards and nine touchdowns. For reference, that's more TD throws in two games than Arkansas, Boston College, Michigan State, UCLA, Michigan, Clemson or 17 other FBS programs have managed all year. Interestingly, only five FBS defenses have allowed fewer passing TDs this year than Kennesaw State (six).
Barring an epic meltdown at home against Rice this week, North Texas is looking at a 7-2 start with a massive showdown at UTSA on the horizon that could determine the favorite in the American. How impressive is that for coach Neal Brown? When Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State, he took just shy of two dozen players, a handful of coaches and, we assume, the good coffee maker with him. UNT opened the season with just 32% of its production returning, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly -- the seventh-lowest tally in FBS. Despite the massive makeover, the Mean Green are right back in the hunt for a conference title.