The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a difficult team to figure out at this point in the 2026 NFL season. Tampa entered Week 7 at 1-5 and looked completely dead in the water. In fact, Tampa was even rumored to be sellers at the trade deadline if they do not turn things around quickly. Fortunately, the Buccaneers have already shown signs of life after scoring 26 points against the Panthers in the second quarter alone. But even a Week 7 win won't mean the entire season is saved.
The Buccaneers signed Mayfield to a $165 million extension just before the regular season. Unfortunately, Mayfield has not played very well since signing that contract. He entered Week 7 only playing in three games, logging 615 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. That kind of production is simply not commensurate with the contract Baker just signed. Nor does it meet the standing that Mayfield has already established for himself since joining the Buccaneers.
Tampa already has five losses on the season. Barring an incredible turn around, they should be picking towards the top of the 2027 NFL Draft. That draft class should be loaded with quarterback talent, which could tempt Tampa into drafting Baker's successor.
If the Buccaneers gets the chance to draft a franchise quarterback, they must jump at the opportunity. Even after giving Mayfield a lucrative extension.
The Buccaneers could be in prime position to draft a quarterback next spring
Opportunity is the most important word to describe Tampa's situation.
Whenever an NFL team has a chance at drafting a franchise quarterback, they need to seriously think about doing it. The advantage of having a franchise QB on a rookie contract is probably the biggest edge in professional sports. It's certainly the best advantage an NFL team could hope for.
It all comes down to dollars and cents. Rookies simply don't earn as much as established veterans. For example, the first overall pick from the 2027 NFL Draft is set to carry just a $12.14 million cap hit as a rookie. That is nothing compared to the $55 million or more that veteran starters demand on the open market. That extra $30+ million can be used to upgrade the rest of the roster around a rookie quarterback.
Heading into Week 7, the Buccaneers were projected to pick inside the top five. That will change if they can beat the Panthers, but it won't move them too far down the draft board.
If Tampa Bay falls in love with a quarterback prospect, they may actually be able to pull off a trade up the board if they hold a premium pick. That possibility could come into play if the Chargers (currently 0-6) end up having the first overall pick. LA is financially committed to Justin Herbert in such a way that trading him is almost impossible. So if they get that pick, trading down and reaping a fortune from a desperate team would be a realistic option.
The Buccaneers need to be a part of that conversation if it comes to that.
So what would that mean for Baker Mayfield?
Let's put the attention back on Mayfield for a second.
Article Continues BelowIf the Buccaneers do draft a rookie quarterback in the first round, what would that mean for Baker?
It obviously depends on which specific prospect Tampa picks in such a scenario. There are a handful of prospects who Mayfield could reasonably win a training camp battle against, at least in 2027. In that case, Mayfield could hold onto his starting job to start the 2027 season. However, he would be under the microscope with fans knowing a rookie is waiting in the wings. Mayfield would essentially be a lame duck quarterback, similar to Kirk Cousins in Las Vegas except with a bigger contract.
On the other hand, it is easy to imagine Tampa handing the reins to a rookie over Mayfield. The Buccaneers would need to be convinced that the rookie is the future of the organization. That's never guaranteed with a rookie, but it's firmly within the range of outcomes here.
Ultimately, the Buccaneers need to look out for themselves in the draft. Pivoting off Baker could be painful, but it is worth the cost if it means finding your quarterback of the future.
It will be fascinating to see what pick Tampa ends up landing in the 2027 NFL Draft. The offseason could get interesting if they land a pick in the top 10.