When the Brewers finished off the Dodgers on Thursday night, their World Series opponent was the last thing on anyone’s mind. An MLB official closed the postgame press conference by telling manager Pat Murphy and NLCS MVP Jake Bauers, “We’ll see you in Milwaukee at the World Series.”
Murphy’s reply said everything: “When’s that start?”
Next Friday, Oct. 23, at American Family Field, where Milwaukee holds home-field advantage thanks to its franchise-record 103 wins. The Guardians took a 2-1 ALCS lead over the Rays into Friday night's scheduled Game 4 at Progressive Field. Milwaukee, meanwhile, will have a full week to rest, which leaves plenty of time to watch and wonder.
Here’s a guide to each potential matchup. You decide which one you’d rather see.
If the regular season is a guide ...
It doesn’t tell us much. The Brewers went 2-1 against both teams.
Milwaukee won the first two games against Cleveland on June 16-17 before rookie left-hander Parker Messick struck out nine over six innings in the finale. Cleveland was without José Ramírez, Angel Martínez and Chase DeLauter. All three are back.
Tampa Bay visited March 30-April 1, taking the opener before Milwaukee won 6-2 and 8-2. It was a lifetime ago in baseball terms. Freddy Peralta and catcher Liam Hicks weren’t Rays yet.
When the Brewers hit
Milwaukee’s lineup is built on pressure. The Brewers ranked in the top five in doubles, runs, hits, walks, batting average and on-base percentage.
That approach might get more of a test against Tampa Bay. The Rays issued the fewest walks in the Majors (409) and ranked second in defensive runs saved (87). Drawing walks and finding holes gets tougher against that combination. And their top starters have carried it into October: Drew Rasmussen has a 1.29 ERA through two postseason starts, while Peralta has allowed one earned run in 10 2/3 innings, including six shutout innings in Game 2 of the ALCS.
Cleveland offers a different challenge. Gavin Williams has been a monster, striking out 33 over 16 2/3 innings this postseason. The Guardians have a 2.54 ERA this October, slightly better than Tampa Bay’s 2.72. But Cleveland issued 530 regular-season walks to the Rays’ 409, giving Milwaukee more reason to believe its patient approach can create traffic.
When the other side hits
The regular-season numbers favor facing Cleveland. The Guardians had the lowest OPS (.696) and fewest runs (678) of any postseason team. Tampa Bay offered a more complete attack, with Junior Caminero’s 42 homers anchoring a lineup that tied for fifth in on-base percentage (.326).
October has told a different story. Through Thursday, Cleveland was averaging 4.25 runs per game with a .685 OPS, compared with Tampa Bay’s 3.00 runs and .563 OPS. The Guardians haven’t suddenly become an offensive powerhouse, but they’ve been more productive than the Rays, whose lineup managed just three hits in Game 3 of the ALCS.
The larger sample still points toward Cleveland as the preferable opponent. The way these teams are hitting right now makes that a tougher call.
The bullpens
Neither ninth inning looks inviting. Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker has saved all four Rays wins this postseason without allowing a hit in four innings. Ian Seymour has been a strong bridge, allowing one earned run in 6 1/3 innings.
Cleveland counters with Cade Smith, who has allowed two hits and one run while striking out 13 in nine innings this October. Hunter Gaddis has added six scoreless innings across seven appearances. Both teams have arms capable of shortening games.
The Brewers have made a habit of coming back this postseason, and their bats have shown they can pick at a bullpen late. Against either opponent, getting a lead before the closer enters would make life easier.
What about the intangibles?
The Guardians’ championship drought dates to 1948. The Rays, like the Brewers, have never won a World Series.
The Rays mirror Milwaukee in many ways. Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold worked in Tampa Bay’s front office alongside current Rays GM Erik Neander. Add Peralta facing his former team, and the storyline writes itself.
Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt played for Milwaukee and interviewed for the job that went to Murphy three years ago. And a Cleveland-Milwaukee World Series comes with a built-in movie reference: Major League, filmed in Milwaukee with Bob Uecker’s Harry Doyle calling Cleveland's improbable run.
The verdict
Give the Guardians a slight edge as Milwaukee’s preferred opponent, though their October bats have made that a tougher sell. The Rays were the more complete team over six months. Cleveland has spent the past two weeks making those six months feel a little less relevant.
The Brewers? They just sent the back-to-back champs home. They’ll let the AL sort this out. Somebody remind Murph what time Friday’s game starts.

