On Halloween night in 2015, Miami beat No. 22 Duke with one of the greatest (and most gloriously illegal) plays in college football history. On a cold Halloween night in 1998, unranked Texas ended Nebraska's 47-game home winning streak, 20-16. In 1981, unranked Miami upended No. 1 Penn State 17-14 in a rainy and windy Orange Bowl.

In 2009, Chip Kelly's Oregon rushed for 391 yards on No. 4 USC and sent Pete Carroll scurrying to the pros. In 1959, LSU's Billy Cannon ripped off the greatest punt return in college football history against a damn-near untouchable Ole Miss team. In 1936, Northwestern ended Minnesota's nearly four-year unbeaten streak and replaced the Golden Gophers at No. 1.

Halloween can produce some SPOOOOooooOOOOky developments. And now it arrives at the end of one of the spookiest Octobers on record. In the last three weeks alone, we've seen 21 ranked teams go down, more than half to unranked opponents. A top-2 team lost to an unranked foe each week.

How will this haunted month end? Here's everything you need to follow.

All times Eastern.

Can Northwestern and [insert Ohio State QB here] meet the moment?

The Big Ten is in an odd place. UCLA and Ohio State are unbeaten in conference play but are dealing with long-term quarterback injuries, and Indiana barely got to 4-1 with a limited QB last week. Oregon is out of the race, having fallen apart after, you guessed it, a QB injury. This week we finally get a look at Ohio State's Julian Sayin successor of choice, and Oregon and Indiana will help determine whether 3-1 Northwestern and Minnesota are contenders.

No. 2 Ohio State at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)

In more than a decade since Ohio State won the national title with third-string QB Cardale Jones, the Buckeyes have had pretty good quarterback injury luck. But with Julian Sayin out indefinitely with an arm injury, their national title hopes are in the hands of either freshman Luke Fahey (likely) or sophomore Tavien St. Clair. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith & Co. have had two weeks to prepare them for a spotlight moment.

Just throwing the ball at Jeremiah Smith, even if he's double-covered, is a pretty good fallback option for a young QB, but now would be a great time for the Buckeyes run game, which ranks 98th in yards per carry (not including sacks), to help out more, especially in potentially rainy conditions.

USC has its own issues. The Trojans scored just seven points against Wisconsin -- the worst output ever for a Lincoln Riley team -- and are projected underdogs in three of their final four games. The defense has stabilized a bit but still isn't good, especially against the pass. (That's another point in favor of "Just throw it at Smith.") The offense will still probably need 21 points or more to pull an upset, and that will require infinitely better protection for Jayden Maiava, who took five sacks and threw two picks against Wisconsin. USC running backs rushed for just 39 yards, and it felt like every drive started with the Trojans facing third-and-10. Wisconsin's defense is awesome, but, well, so is Ohio State's.

Current line: OSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 11.9 | FPI projection: OSU by 13.4

No. 20 Northwestern at Oregon (3:30 p.m., Peacock)

This is a frequently predictable sport, but damn, can things change sometimes. In the preseason, SP+ projected this game as a 26.6-point advantage for Oregon. But the Ducks suffered a bumpy start, then lost quarterback Dante Moore for the season as they were beginning to rebound. Meanwhile, Northwestern stormed out of the gates, stagnated briefly, then obliterated Rutgers last week.

Legendary former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly returns as the mastermind of a resurgent Northwestern offense. The 6-1 Wildcats are 25th in points per possession on defense (pretty typical for Northwestern) and 17th on offense (extremely atypical). Oregon's defense is excellent, but the Ducks have scored just 14 points per game since Moore's last start.

Current line: Ducks -3.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 5.8 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.3

Minnesota at No. 4 Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Dealing with an injury to his throwing arm, Indiana's Josh Hoover threw approximately one accurate pass all game against Michigan. The Hoosiers got by because of a solid run game and ridiculously good defense, but Minnesota also is a ball control-and-defense team. The Gophers don't mind rock fights.

Indiana's defense is even better than the Michigan defense that held the Gophers to 262 yards a few weeks ago, but if Hoover is as limited as he was last week, IU isn't guaranteed to get to its bye week with just one loss.

Current line: IU -20.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 22.8 | FPI projection: IU by 27.2

A disaster avoidance week in the SEC

We're a week away from an absurdly big Saturday in the SEC (and everywhere else), with Alabama-LSU, Georgia-Ole Miss and Kentucky-Tennessee. That will deliver a shake-up no matter what, but this weekend Georgia and Ole Miss must avoid disaster before their big showdown.

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer won theirs (great sign), but so did Ron Zook and Jim McElwain. Billy Napier and Jim Donnan lost theirs (bad sign), but so did Mark Richt and Kirby Smart. A coach's first Cocktail Party (or, for now, Invesco QQQ Atlanta Gridiron Classic) is not particularly indicative of a good or bad tenure. But it sure is an opportunity for goodwill. Jon Sumrall's first season has already lurched about, producing huge wins (Ole Miss, Texas) and blowout losses (Missouri, South Carolina), and now the Gators will try to send Georgia's season into a tailspin.

Georgia's loss to Auburn two weeks ago featured both a huge efficiency advantage and bad turnovers luck. The Bulldogs have fumbled six times in two games, but they're superior in most statistical categories and have gone from not making nearly enough big plays to gaining 20-plus yards on 10.5% of snaps (second nationally).

The Dawgs' tackling has been pretty mediocre by their standards, and if you're crafting a Florida upset script that goes beyond "force fumbles," it starts with Jadan Baugh racking up yards after contact. Sumrall has been coy about who will start at QB after backup Tramell Jones Jr. led the Texas upset in place of starter Aaron Philo. The Gators' defense ranks 97th in points allowed per drive, and I don't think they'll make enough stops without forcing some turnovers, but if they can get their point total into the mid-20s, they'll give themselves an upset chance.

Current line: UGA -12.5 (up from -10.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: UGA by 16.5 | FPI projection: UGA by 13.0

Auburn at No. 12 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN)

With the number of losses contenders have suffered to date, any SEC team finishing 10-2 or better will likely have excellent playoff odds, and in SP+ projections, an average of 1.9 three-loss teams make it too. So let's start our Ole Miss discussion with this:

Four of two-loss Ole Miss' final five games are at home, and only two are against SP+ top-50 opponents. The Rebels have a 50-50 chance of getting to 9-3, but this one's obviously a must-win. They'll again be without injury-plagued running back Kewan Lacy, but backup Makhi Frazier has been good, and Auburn's defense ranks 69th in yards allowed per dropback -- Trinidad Chambliss should have some playmaking opportunities.

Ole Miss' defense was excellent against Vanderbilt and Mizzou, but the Rebels gave up 258 first-half yards to Texas last week and couldn't stop running back Raleek Brown when it mattered. Auburn doesn't offer much offensively, but quarterback Byrum Brown and the run game can make some big plays.

Current line: Rebels -13.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.7 | FPI projection: Rebels by 9.3

Momentum and consequences in the Big 12

One can make an easy case that the most impactful games of the week are in the Big 12. Smoking hot Arizona gets a chance to burnish its growing credentials (while destroying Texas Tech's), and a week after scoring a massive home upset, Cincinnati gets a chance to do it back-to-back.

No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech (noon, ESPN)

The Wildcats started the season in mediocre fashion, going 3-1 but slipping as low as 38th in SP+. But they've clicked over the past three games, outscoring conference opponents by a combined 125-41. Aside from giving up a few big pass plays, their statistical profile is almost totally free of weaknesses. Noah Fifita ranks second nationally in completion rate (74.2%), and the defense blitzes with abandon and gets home often (ninth in sack rate). With games against Texas Tech and Utah, they control most of their playoff fate.

Tech, of course, has to rebound following last Saturday's relative no-show in Cincinnati. The Red Raiders were poor across the board, and the Will Hammond-led offense ranks just 57th in points per drive. They go three-and-out 28% of the time (87th), and they don't make enough big plays to offset the inconsistency. Arizona's defense forces teams to counterpunch and beat them with big plays, and we'll see if Tech is up to the task. There's no question who has had the more effective quarterback to date.

Tech's ceiling is still awfully high thanks to a high-pressure defense and good run efficiency. But while a loss here would not necessarily be a playoff eliminator, it would be pretty close.

Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 4.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.1

No. 6 Utah at Cincinnati (3:45 p.m., ESPN)

We aren't about to see even more Nippert Stadium magic, are we? Cincinnati has been dynamite at home this season (and pretty dreadful away from it), and a week after blasting Texas Tech, the Bearcats get another shot at an unbeaten team.

This will be a dynamite matchup when Cincinnati has the ball and a potential mismatch when Utah has it. Quarterback JC French IV and the Bearcats move the ball efficiently and are nearly perfect in the red zone. Backs Cole Tabb and Gi'Bran Payne are averaging 7.8 yards per carry, but running room should be harder to find against Utah; Cincinnati's fate could be in French's hands. Utah's secondary is super aggressive, but the pass rush is mediocre.

Cincinnati's defense will need some errors from Utah quarterback Devon Dampier to make stops. Dampier has thrown six picks, but Utah is 13th in offensive SP+ and lead back Wayshawn Parker is averaging 127.3 yards from scrimmage per game.

Current line: Utah -6.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 8.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 7.5

Does the ACC remain a 3-team race?

Top-ranked Miami leads the way in the ACC, while SMU and Wake Forest are both 4-1 and have looked the part of contenders at times. All three teams are semi-comfortable favorites, but SP+ says there's only a 50% chance all three win.

No. 1 Miami at North Carolina (7:30 p.m., ABC)

In one more week, Miami will finally play a top-notch team. The Hurricanes have faced only one opponent in the SP+ top 40 (Wake Forest), and even the Demon Deacons didn't enter the top 40 until a few weeks later. We know Miami's offense is brilliant -- Darian Mensah, Malachi Toney & Co. have played three solid defenses (Wake Forest, Clemson and Pitt) and scored 42 PPG against them. But the Canes have faced only two decent offenses and allowed 24 PPG. Not great.

Only part of that matters against North Carolina. The Tar Heels are coming off of a confusingly poor defensive performance against Syracuse, but they're 42nd in defensive SP+ and excellent at big-play prevention. UNC will still probably need to score 28-plus, however, and if that happens, I'll have serious questions about Miami's defense. UNC ranks 82nd in points per drive with minimal big plays; Miami has one of the more all-or-nothing defenses in the country and basically gives up big plays or nothing.

UNC receiver Jordan Shipp is capable of big gainers here and there, but he might need quite a few for the Heels to pull a shocker.

Current line: Miami -14 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 18.6

Virginia at No. 14 Wake Forest (3:45 p.m., ESPN2)

Sometimes you figure yourself out in a loss. Wake Forest trailed Miami 31-7 midway through the third quarter in Week 3 but put together a nice rally, outscoring the Hurricanes 13-2 the rest of the way and nearly pulling to within one score twice. The result was never in doubt, but since that game the Demon Deacons have played like a team that wants another shot at Miami, overachieving against SP+ projections by 24.2 PPG in four straight wins. They'll visit SMU in two weeks, but first they need to avoid a misstep against a sliding Virginia.

The Cavaliers' offense has vanished, averaging just 16 PPG in a run of three losses in four games, but they still have an aggressive pass defense that ranks seventh in completion rate allowed (53.1%). Wake Forest's Gio Lopez has been stratospheric of late -- he's up to seventh nationally in Total QBR with a ridiculous 17-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio -- but this is the best defense he has faced since Miami.

Current line: Wake -12.5 (down from -14) | SP+ projection: Wake by 8.9 | FPI projection: Wake by 12.7

No. 19 SMU at Syracuse (noon, ESPN2)

SMU's offense had underachieved for weeks before a 42-point second-half explosion against California last week. With Kevin Jennings and a deep receiving corps, the Mustangs rank eighth nationally in yards per dropback (8.8).

For lack of a better word, Syracuse is just weird. The Orange haven't been consistently good at anything beyond creating negative plays, but they've overachieved against projections for four straight games. Quarterback Steve Angeli returned to the lineup last week and led an upset of North Carolina. I'd believe a 50-point SMU win, and I'd believe a Syracuse upset.

Current line: SMU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 13.7 | FPI projection: SMU by 7.9

Steady as she goes for Boise State and New Mexico

The race for the Group of 6's guaranteed playoff spot grinds on, and I want everyone to make it! Boise State is your likely front-runner, and that's always great, but how do you root against New Mexico or Oregon State? UTSA would be fun, too!

This week, the two likely front-runners both face passable but tricky tests.

Texas State at No. 20 Boise State (10 p.m., The CW)

Boise State has been dynamite since its Week 1 loss to Oregon. An all-or-nothing defense has held three of four opponents to 18 or fewer points, and the Broncos' offense features both mistake-free quarterback Maddux Madsen and the nation's leading rusher, Dylan Riley.

Riley is getting great blocking but can also generate solid yards after contact. He and Sire Gaines are among the best duos in the country, and against three other SP+ top-40 offenses (BSU is 18th), Texas State has allowed 41.7 points per game.

The Bobcats will therefore have to win a track meet in potentially rainy conditions. They're capable, combining efficient passing from Brad Jackson and explosive running from Torrance Burgess Jr. (No. 4 on the chart above). BSU offers more defensively, but the Bobcats can score.

Current line: BSU -10.5 (down from -12.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 11.9 | FPI projection: BSU by 15.5

New Mexico Lobos at San José State (4 p.m., MW+)

New Mexico's defense is so damn good. The Lobos allow zero or fewer yards on 42% of snaps (most in the country) and lead the nation in takeaways. Their opportunism -- namely, Austin Brawley's fourth-quarter pick-six -- made the difference last week against North Dakota State.

The Lobos should be fine against SJSU, but the Spartans play solid bend-don't-break defense, and New Mexico's offense isn't entirely reliable. The Lobos don't turn the ball over, but they're just 94th in success rate. SJSU could make enough stops to make this one awkward, but UNM should eventually pull away.

Current line: Lobos -14.5 | SP+ projection: Lobos by 18.1 | FPI projection: Lobos by 19.4

Week 9 chaos superfecta

We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. As one might expect from college football's general chaos level, we continue to have massive success. We've scored multiple upsets for two straight weeks, and we've taken at least one favorite down in seven of eight weeks. Let's choose this week's victims!

Despite double-digit spreads, SP+ says there's only a 35% chance that Wake Forest (-12.5 vs. Virginia), Ole Miss (-13.5 vs. Auburn), Boise State (-10.5 vs. Texas State) and Georgia (-12.5 vs. Florida) all win Saturday. May the chaos continue.

Week 9 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Baylor at UCF (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Baylor heads to Orlando having watched its season fall apart and its head coach get fired. Interim coach Joe Klanderman's defense is 13th in points allowed per possession, but UCF has won five straight at the Bounce House, and unless the entire stadium is hungover from last week's BYU game, the Knights should make BU quarterback DJ Lagway's job awfully difficult.

Current line: UCF -1.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 1.5 | FPI projection: UCF by 0.4

Early Saturday

No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Navy (noon, ABC). Notre Dame has won its past three games against Navy by an average of 47-9. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez and Navy have scored 34-plus in three straight games, but four straight would be miraculous, and even if the Midshipmen are scoring, they'll have to make stops. Notre Dame's offense ranks third in points per drive; Navy's defense ranks 112th.

Current line: Irish -30.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 26.9 | FPI projection: Irish by 36.6

No. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa (noon, Fox). Fresh off maybe the season's best defensive performance, Wisconsin is ranked for the first time since the start of 2023. The Badgers have allowed more than 20 points just once, and they'll expect a hellacious rock fight in Iowa City. Iowa was positioned well for a CFP run until last week's loss to Minnesota; the winner here will still have slight hope of finishing 10-2.

Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 2.5

Boston College at Duke (noon, The CW). Over its past four games, Boston College has overachieved against SP+ projections by 16.8 PPG. Mason McKenzie passed the Eagles to an upset of Pitt, then McKenzie and Bo MacCormack III ran BC past Georgia Tech. Duke is coming off a win at Virginia and isn't out of the ACC hunt, but the Blue Devils face a much stronger test than it seemed a few weeks ago.

Current line: Duke -7 | SP+ projection: Duke by 10.8 | FPI projection: Duke by 10.6

UAB at South Florida (noon, ESPNU). With 60% of its games finishing within one score and most of its teams having two or fewer conference losses, the American is wonderfully messy, and with a 2-1 conference record, UAB is one of many in contention. Todd Grantham's defense is improving, but USF's defense has held five of seven opponents to 17 or fewer points. This could be a meaningful rock fight.

Current line: USF -7.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 15.1 | FPI projection: USF by 14.3

Saturday afternoon

Arizona State at No. 8 BYU (3:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State is coming off its best performance in a disappointing season; the Sun Devils can run the ball -- freshman Cardae Mack went for 159 yards last week -- and create negative plays on defense. If BYU responds well after last week's loss, the Cougars should cruise, but their defense faltered for nearly the first time all year, and it'll have to put in a solid shift.

Current line: BYU -16.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: BYU by 16.9 | FPI projection: BYU by 18.9

South Carolina at Oklahoma (4:15 p.m., SECN). It would be just like a Shane Beamer team to go on a run after looking so mediocre to start the season. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers was all-or-nothing against Tennessee, but the Vols' offense couldn't punish the "alls" enough. Can Oklahoma? Quarterback John Mateer is coming off his steadiest performance of the season. The winner still technically has playoff hopes.

Current line: OU -4.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 1.8 | FPI projection: OU by 4.9

Nevada at No. 7 UCLA (4:15 p.m., BTN). I realize UCLA hasn't faced a murderer's row -- though the 10-point win over Wisconsin looks pretty good now -- but damn, guys, rank the Bruins higher than seventh! They're unbeaten! There are four one-loss teams ahead of them! That's no fun! They'll almost certainly cruise against Nevada, but the Wolf Pack prevent big plays, and edge rusher Dylan LaBarbera is good. They could trouble UCLA at least a bit.

Current line: UCLA -22.5 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 20.0 | FPI projection: UCLA by 22.5

Louisiana Tech at South Alabama (3 p.m., ESPN+). Louisiana Tech has won four straight to become the Sun Belt West favorite. The Bulldogs stuff the run, throw the ball quickly and win the turnover battle. South Alabama's offense no-showed at Marshall last week but avoids negative plays and goes for it constantly on fourth down. The Jags have upset potential, especially if Tech can't punish a poor defense enough.

Current line: Tech -5.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 6.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.9

Saturday evening

Clemson at Florida State (7 p.m., ACCN). It has been a "first since" year for Clemson. The latest: first loss to Virginia Tech since 2007. The 4-3 Tigers are averaging 18.2 points against power-conference defenses, and against three SP+ top-40 offenses, they've allowed 37.3. Granted, FSU isn't exactly a reliable actor, but the Seminoles have a good offense -- though missing star RB Ousmane Kromah hurts -- and allow points only against good offenses. Clemson doesn't have a good offense.

Current line: FSU -6 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.6 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.0

No. 23 Missouri at Arkansas (7:45 p.m., SECN). Mizzou had a week off to figure out why its run game disappeared against Ole Miss and how to fix it against an improving Arkansas defense. Arkansas' offense has averaged just 12.8 points against SP+ top-40 defenses (Mizzou's 12th), but if the Tigers' O-line isn't getting any push, this could remain close and tense (and potentially rainy). And that's true even if Mizzou star Ahmad Hardy returns.

Current line: Mizzou -10 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 12.1 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 8.7

No. 24 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (7 p.m., FS1). It's the 15th anniversary of ISU's classic 2011 upset of No. 2 OSU. A win Saturday wouldn't be nearly that big, but it will require a reversal in form: The Cyclones have lost their past three games against SP+ top-25 teams (OSU is 24th) by an average of 31-10. ISU might keep up in a track meet, but having to face Drew Mestemaker while ranking 130th in yards allowed per dropback seems suboptimal.

Current line: OSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 11.1 | FPI projection: OSU by 7.8

Washington at Nebraska (8 p.m., BTN). After a bye week to stew over tight losses to Indiana and Oregon, Nebraska is a projected favorite in its next three games, but Washington comfortably beat Purdue in its last outing. Whether Demond Williams Jr. or Elijah Brown starts at QB for the Huskies is a mystery, but UW's defense will have the task of corralling Nebraska QB Anthony Colandrea.

Current line: Huskers -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Huskers by 8.4 | FPI projection: Huskers by 16.2

Mississippi State at No. 11 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Can Texas finally get an easy Saturday? MSU had plenty to offer before injuries to QB Kamario Taylor and RB Fluff Bothwell derailed everything. Bothwell is back, but Taylor is gone for the year. Defense and Raleek Brown saved Texas' season against Ole Miss, and against a poor MSU secondary, Arch Manning could sustain a rhythm for once.

Current line: Horns -20.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 16.9 | FPI projection: Horns by 18.8

Army at Memphis (8 p.m., ESPNU). This is the programs' first meeting as conference rivals. Both have only one loss in the cluttered American, and both are coming off dramatic wins. SP+ still sees Memphis as the conference's best team, but the Tigers' defense is suffering a lot more glitches, and Army's option attack is the ultimate test of discipline. The Black Knights have scored 94 points in the past two weeks.

Current line: Memphis -6 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 8.5 | FPI projection: Memphis by 5.5

Late Saturday

Oregon State at Fresno State (11 p.m., USA). Texas State-Boise State and OSU-Fresno is an excellent late-night doubleheader. Jesse Legree, Braden Atkinson and the high-flying Beavers can still play their way into CFP contention, but they'll probably have to beat Boise State twice, and they'll definitely need to avoid an upset in Fresno. The Bulldogs' defense is springing leaks, but RB Rayshon Luke and WR Ezekiel Avit are big-play threats.

Current line: OSU -5.5 (down from -7) | SP+ projection: OSU by 1.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0

Speaking of Oregon State, a brief aside about underdogs

Something amazing happened in English soccer this past week: In the League Cup, one of two English knockout competitions, fourth-division Fleetwood Town, the 86th-best team in the country per the current standings, upset defending Premier League champion Arsenal. Despite all of soccer's rampant inequality, this might be the biggest upset in the competition's history. When you give minnows shots at the big dogs, you occasionally see something spectacular that you remember forever. From this point forward, Fleetwood Town will always have beaten Arsenal. It's an incredible thing, and it is exactly what college football seems to be trying to legislate out of existence.

This week, Oregon State head coach JaMarcus Shephard talked about the coming 24-team CFP, saying, "Everyone has to work under the same set of rules. So let's try to make it more accessible to more people, rather than just trying to make the rich richer. ... I hope the NCAA actually does care about student-athletes, all student-athletes, not just the ones in the SEC and the Big Ten."

Granted, the NCAA wants as little as possible to do with big-time football at this point, but Shephard's sentiment rings true. The rich have gotten richer for a while, and we're somehow expanding the playoff without expanding access beyond the top conferences. The 70-team Group of 6 is guaranteed one bid. It's an insult, and it deprives us of potentially memorable upsets in the name of giving access to 8-4 Big Ten teams. But I digress.

Smaller-school showcase

Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 11 North Dakota at No. 4 Youngstown State (noon, ESPN+). Between this and No. 6 South Dakota at No. 5 South Dakota State, we get a hellacious Missouri Valley doubleheader. Beau Brungard and the YSU attack have averaged 41.8 points in their past four games, and the Penguins have lost to only SDSU and Kentucky. North Dakota is certainly battle-tested -- or maybe just exhausted? -- having beaten SDSU and lost to South Dakota in the past two weeks.

SP+ projection: YSU by 7.9

Division II: No. 9 Davenport at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m., FloCollege). The past two times Davenport started a season 8-0, the Panthers lost to GLIAC heavyweights Ferris State and Grand Valley State. Hey, guess who's up next on the schedule? Ferris State welcomes this ambitious challenger a week after a close call against Michigan Tech. Was that a wake-up call for the Division II heavyweights (whose win streak is up to 38 games)? Sign of weakness? I'm guessing it was the former.

SP+ projection: Ferris State by 13.6

FCS: No. 10 Tennessee Tech at No. 18 East Tennessee State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). A big one in the SoCon. ETSU has won games by diverse scores of 58-31 and 14-3 over the past month and hasn't lost since a mid-September trip to North Carolina. Tennessee Tech randomly slipped up against Western Carolina, but the Golden Eagles' defense is fifth in yards allowed per dropback. The Golden Eagles' mortal run defense could struggle against TJ Peyton and a strong ETSU run game. The winner has excellent playoff odds.

SP+ projection: Tech by 3.3